The Oracle - The Future of Publishing

You can mark it. Just bookmark it and leave it there on your toolbar so that on January 25, 2016 you can come back and evaluate your oracular skills.

I'd be willing to wager that you're way off the mark. *shrug* But then, I don't claim to be an oracle.

AllHorsesPost said:

Considering this weekend I had a NYT bestselling author and a Pulitzer prize winner tell me to go electronic - I think I may be closer to the truth than anyone thinks.

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Or they may be telling you that your best shot is with ebooks as opposed to physical ones.

I heard this predicted 15 years ago, and ten years ago, and five years ago.

My thoughts in bold...

AllHorsesPost said:

I think the current model is going to fall by the wayside in 5 years or less.

1. I think that successful fiction and non-fiction books will be released online by Literary Production Companies (online book trailers and other online marketing). Clever agents will be the producer, and will have contacts with the good publicists, jacket designers, actors (for audiobooks and video serials) and editors etc.

You're discounting the fact that the big six and many smaller publishers already have the skill and backing to move into the future. Do you really believe the big six are going to fold their tents because of epublishing? The truth be told, in five years there will more than likely be 1 million self published books on line and 90% of them will be rubbish, unreadable and ignored. Readers are already complaining about having to wade through slush pile rejects to find books that interest them and are well written.

1. Authors who have good marketing and computer skilz won't need a producer.

Don't need them now, unless you self publish.

1. paper books will be the most expensive and least popular way to read for the hold outs.

Paper books are very green. The batteries in electronic readers are not. Also, you are discounting the fact that if paper books disappear, the price of ebooks will rise, thus reducing their growing popularity There is also the little known fact that you do not own the ebook you buy online. Some epublishers allow you to loan an ebook, most do not. If I want to take my paperback books to a used book store to trade in for other books I have read, the publishers can't stop me. Try that with an ebook.

1. Hard back books will be rare

Not in five years time.

1. Book stores will be mainly coffee shops and will be a mere fraction of the size they are not (at $30+ a Square foot - who can afford it).

New type of stores will evolve, speciality and niche shops which already exist will expand as needed. The walmart book isles will just get larger. If you take a survey of readers, who do not write, I think you will find that readers prefer the book store experience to shopping for books on line. The big box stores might disappear, but not completely.

1. I think we will see a resurgence of independent bookstores, especially ones that are smart enough to get the technology for authors to have "virtual book tours"

I think you have gotten this one right, and one of the indies in my home town already does pod cast with authors right in the store.

1. Regular book tours will be non-existent.

They almost are now, except for the big money makers. Book tours are expensive, time consuming and most authors hate them. There are other ways of connecting with your fans.

1. traditional agents will be used primarily for film and television rights AND the online video-type entertainment that is maturing right now. i.e. Chapters in a book as a series that are paid for like the old serials used to be back in the 30s.

Not all agents are qualified for film and television rights. While the agent list might be shrinking, those that survive will have a better choice of manuscripts to choose from. Successful ebook authors will search them out because these guys/gals will get them better deals

PS. the writers got peanuts for those old serials back in the 30s & 40s. I don't think anyone wants to go back to those days. I value my time too much, as every writer should. You start selling your work for peanuts and set a very dangerous precedent that is hard to break out of...

I wish I could mark this and come back to see it in 5 years to see how close I was to the mark

Just subscribe to this thread. It will still be here if the AW is still around.

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Any other thoughts...

I don't know...
1,2) I don't want to watch a commercial for a book i'm going to read... I want sample words...

3,4) five years from now baby boomers and whatever generation came after them will be retired with time to kill and they're still into the old fashioned paper.

5) maybe.

6) Why would I go to an indie bookstore for a virtual anything? apparently virtual tours (which i had to google) are about giving blog interviews... even less reason to go anywhere by my computer for them.

7) speaking engagements are very profitable (appearance fees) to authors and great ways to promote. book signings are still pretty awesome if it's a popular book, and if you're popular i don't think a book store will turn you away. not popular, you're just taking up space...

8) I don't really understand this one. buying a book chapter by chapter would be expensive and not really sensible if they weren't standalone closed stores that just strung one bigger story together. it works with albums because you don't need song 10 to understand songs 11 and 12. you can just buy the ones you like. Maybe individual stories and serials will make a comeback, that'd be nice.

interesting predictions.

There's also one semi-major advantage that paper books have over ebooks that should contribute to their staying power - format.

A book will always be a book.

An ebook must be formatted for a specific device. If the technology changes, then the devices change, then the books must be repurchased - as with VCR to DVD to Blu-Ray.

veinglory said:

I heard this predicted 15 years ago, and ten years ago, and five years ago.

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Yep. And five years from now (ten, fifteen), someone else will make the same predictions.

The book trailers and videos are growing in popularity, but I don't think they'll be any major part of the industry. And considering that you can purchase paper books complete with shipping for less than the price of downloading one makes the idea that paper books will be so expensive in just five years pretty suspect.

Paper's not going anywhere anytime soon. Its death knell has been repeated over and over again for years. Still hasn't happened.

I also tend to think that, for most people, going electronic instead of traditional publishing is a huge mistake. It doesn't have to be a costly mistake, like vanity publishing, because it's cheap or free to do. But it's going to get them no closer to their goals. Part of this is because most people who go electronic are doing so because their books weren't picked up traditionally, and that's often because the books aren't good enough. There's so much garbage out there, that most people aren't going to wade through a bunch of unknown names in the hope of finding something that's decent when they can just go download the electronic latest by a well-known, traditionally published author and have at least some hope of getting their money's worth.

Bookstores are shrinking, that much is true. But the rest, well, I'm not convinced. See you here in 5 years.
Shelley

Book trailers don't sell me as much as a first chapter read in a bookshop does. Sure, they are effective, and some trailers are splendid (I want to use them if I get published as well) but the reading in a bookshop can't compare with any other kind of promotion.

I remember when computers started becoming common.

It was all "We're going to SAVE the Amazon rain forest 'cause we're not going to use any more paper! It'll ALL be on computer screens and stuff!"

Guess what.

Still got paper files. Lots of 'em. And lots more 'cause people like paper files.

*yawns*

I iz too old...

Is it time for this thread again?

Sheryl Nantus said:

I remember when computers started becoming common.

It was all "We're going to SAVE the Amazon rain forest 'cause we're not going to use any more paper! It'll ALL be on computer screens and stuff!"

Guess what.

Still got paper files. Lots of 'em. And lots more 'cause people like paper files.

*yawns*

I iz too old...

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Yep, and has anyone tried to read data from an 8-inch floppy disk lately? Or retrieve a WordPerfect file from 1989?

I don't see paper going away anytime soon.

Cre to take any serious bets on that?

AllHorsesPost said:

Considering this weekend I had a NYT bestselling author and a Pulitzer prize winner tell me to go electronic - I think I may be closer to the truth than anyone thinks.

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What makes you think they can predict what the industry will be like in five years time any better than anyone else?

veinglory said:

I heard this predicted 15 years ago, and ten years ago, and five years ago.

Click to expand...

Yeah. Ever since computers became a household fixture, people have been saying it's the End Of Books.

People said that the end was nigh for paintings, too, when the photographic camera came along.

My prediction: Five years from now, things will be pretty much as they are now. There will be more devices for e-reading, and ebooks will continue to grow in popularity. In five years, authors, agents and publishers will have hashed out between them an accepted model for royalties from ebooks and it will be an important part of the market, but not all of it.

Oh, and self-published ebooks will still be 90% dross, and readers will still complain of being unable to find a good one without investing a ridiculous amount of time into the task.

A couple of large chain book stores will still be around, but independent book stores will make a comeback. Used book stores will be more successful than ever.

And in five years, you'll be able to buy my books in book stores. Or for your e-reader, if you prefer.

My prediction: Five years from now, things will be pretty much as they are now. There will be more devices for e-reading, and ebooks will continue to grow in popularity. In five years, authors, agents and publishers will have hashed out between them an accepted model for royalties from ebooks and it will be an important part of the market, but not all of it.

Oh, and self-published ebooks will still be 90% dross, and readers will still complain of being unable to find a good one without investing a ridiculous amount of time into the task.

A couple of large chain book stores will still be around, but independent book stores will make a comeback. Used book stores will be more successful than ever.

And in five years, you'll be able to buy my books in book stores. Or for your e-reader, if you prefer.

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Amen, sister!

I think your predictions are a little extreme. Ebooks will continue to grow, but they will probably plateau pretty quickly and just become part of the norm. There will always be a need for books, in my opinion. the industry will suffer, like the music industry before it, but books will still have its place.

Some interesting thoughts though. The agents acting as producers is particularly intriguing.

JB

AllHorsesPost said:

I think the current model is going to fall by the wayside in 5 years or less.

1. I think that successful fiction and non-fiction books will be released online by Literary Production Companies (online book trailers and other online marketing). Clever agents will be the producer, and will have contacts with the good publicists, jacket designers, actors (for audiobooks and video serials) and editors etc.
2. Authors who have good marketing and computer skilz won't need a producer
3. paper books will be the most expensive and least popular way to read for the hold outs.
4. Hard back books will be rare
5. Book stores will be mainly coffee shops and will be a mere fraction of the size they are not (at $30+ a Square foot - who can afford it).
6. I think we will see a resurgence of independent bookstores, especially ones that are smart enough to get the technology for authors to have "virtual book tours"
7. Regular book tours will be non-existent
8. traditional agents will be used primarily for film and television rights AND the online video-type entertainment that is maturing right now. i.e. Chapters in a book as a series that are paid for like the old serials used to be back in the 30s

I wish I could mark this and come back to see it in 5 years to see how close I was to the mark

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I think you're close but it won't all happen in five years. Talk maybe ten, maybe fifteen.

Here's what the founder of Smashwords had to say about the future of ebooks and publishing in general - he's not alone either.


http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat/publishing-predictions-for-2011-from-smashwords_b18421?c=rss

AllHorsesPost said:

I think the current model is going to fall by the wayside in 5 years or less.

Click to expand...

Almost every time somebody makes a post even suggesting such a thing, the general reaction always brings this scene to mind:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTIvTC2XB00&feature=fvst

I think things are changing. But I don't think they will change how you predict. How will they change? No idea. One thing I know, there's no such thing as the great equaliser. It doesn't matter the medium, books will not suddenly be all on a level playing field. Marketing, money, and hopefully but not necessarily, talent, will still impact what floats to the top. And I just hope all those authors who gleefully hold their fingers crossed for the demise of publishing aren't too disappointed when they learn that it won't necessarily make their journey to be read or successful any easier. The medium will have changed, the gatekeepers will have changed, but some authors will still be more equal than others. And big business and big money will still have its influence.

I respect those authors out there who truly understand and appreciate the new media (I have several friends who are such people). But I fear most people excited about it are excited about it for the wrong, and indeed, selfish reasons. For them it isn't about a brave new world. It's about what they can get out of the brave new world. Or what they think they will get out of it. And I worry those people will be the ones the most disappointed in the end.

The one guaranteed thing about all predictions is that any timeline attached is certain to be wrong. In this case, the timeline couldn't work if everyone in all forms of publishing intentionally tried to make the predictions come true.

And, damn it, I'm still waiting for that flying car they promised me.

Who wants to be an oracle, anyhow? Except maybe in The Matrix.