Ever get the feeling . . .

Yeah, I worry that sometimes readers will figure it all out. But then again, you can't fool everybody. If there are, say, ten plausible scenarios or outcomes for your book (ten characters who could have committed the murder, for instance), chances are someone will figure it out, especially if you have a pretty wide readership.
Avoiding plot guessability (is that even a word?)...? Shoot, I don't know. After about twenty rejections, an agent finally wants to see a partial of my manuscript, so maybe I'm still trying to figure it out, as well. I'll let you know when I do.

WannabeWriter said:

Any advice on ensuring myself that the twists I conjure in the plot are not too guessable?

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I'm always second guessing myself on whether a plot twist is predictable or not. I've been reading/studying Dan Brown and JK Rowling to see if can get any clues. So far, I haven't exactly figured it out but it seems to be careful seeding of the potential plot twist ahead of time along with equally plausible "red herrings" to throw people off the path a bit...but not too much. Sounds tricky.
So far my best technique that I get the most from is I have a small group of choice friends who I'd know would be critical of anything I write to give their input before I put the finishing touches on.

How about asking a writer's group?
I don't think there is a set formula for this. You just have to complete it and then look back and read it yourself and work through this.

WannabeWriter said:

Only problem I have with getting feedback from others is that they themselves will be spoiled by the story's twists.

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Yeah, a writer's group is a good idea too (that's where some of my "choice group of friends" are from).
It's true that it would spoil the story for those people. But I find anyway (whose other experience can I draw from other than my own?) that they give insight on a lot of things other than plot twists which I would've normally overlooked. At the same time though, they don't really know how the story will ultimately turn out since only you know what the final draft is going to look like. And I find that a lot of those people appreciate in being a part of the creative process.
Especially after it becomes a national best seller. There'll be at least one that says "I read it BEFORE it was published." It's all good.
Besides, for all the help you get from someone getting spoiled by reading the unfinished work, there'll be countless others who'd enjoy it more when it gets published.

very good point

I have a novel right now that is a semi-finalist in a contest. I thought I was done. The other night I woke up and went...DAMN! I realized that I should have tied two portions together better, plus it would have created a twist no one would be looking for.

I guess where I'm going is...there's always room for JELLO (more creativity).

I've even read thrillers and said, "I wonder why they didn't do it this way?"

I do however ask friends for ideas sometimes. I tell them the basic plot and then I ask them to ask themselves...What If...? Sometimes I get good ideas, sometimes not.

Don't worry about it. If you thought about it, then I'm certain someone else has also. Make the story good, regardless.

Twists and turns are only part of the story. If your readers care about your characters, and if the twists and turns make sense to the readers, it doesn't matter if they "guessed" it already. Certain genres require unpredictable twists to make it exciting (thriller, suspense, mystery...) But like someone said, if you could think of it, someone else probably could as well. Don't worry about if your twists are out of this world. Just make sure your plot is not totally predictable and cliched.

I think I've worried about going under and over the readers heads at time. It's very Goldilocks. "This one's too trite. This one's too complex..."

A shift in the plot doesn't have to be predictable, but it should make sense within the big picture. Every twist should be the result of things that have been true all along.

Think of a watch. If the hands move in unpredictable ways, it's because of some quirk in the gearwork behind the clockface. Every time a twist occurs, you are hinting at the gearwork, and you need to expose some of it to satisfy the reader that the laws of cause and effect hold up in your universe.

One good way to have an unpredictable twist is to put it out there first, and explain it later. But the explanation needs to make sense within the logic of the story.

Another good kind of twist is to set up two or three issues which appear unrelated, and have the twist serve as a point of revelation about how these issues really are affecting one another.

A twist should always be more than a mere surprise. It should deepen the reader's understanding of what's "really" going on. And of course, you can't do that if you, yourself handn't thought much below the surface.

One of the beauty of "organic" plotting is that your characters have choices. And "God" (you/author) also has choices. And options. One way to make the plot unpredictable (but totally believable) is by choosing one of the least trekked paths for the characters. If a character would normally say "No," let him say "Yes" this time. If the character normally would turn left, let him turn right this time... then see what happens next.