The box office thread

maestrowork · Jun 14, 2009

Some of us have been doing predictions or analysis of the (summer) box office, so I think it deserves its own thread.

This week, seems like The Hangover is going to maintain its lead, which makes it only the second film this summer to hold on to the #1 spot for more than one week (the first was Star Trek).

UP is second with astounding staying power, while new film Taking of Pelham 123 is stuck in third place.

Next week, the first romcom of the season, the Proposal starring Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds, may threaten to take first spot. The exit polls at screenings have been very good.

katiemac · Jun 14, 2009

Ah, Imagine That made $1.8 million on 3,000 screens (6th place). Yikes. Yet I'm not surprised.

maestrowork · Jun 14, 2009

katiemac said:
Ah, Imagine That made $1.8 million on 3,000 screens (6th place). Yikes. Yet I'm not surprised.

Me either. I think Eddie Murphy's (current) career is dead.

ChunkyC · Jun 14, 2009

I think you're right, Ray, at least where being a lead actor is concerned. It's amazing how Eddie can be so good in supporting roles, yet his leading roles always seem to be in such bad movies.

Anyway, I'm a bit surprised that it looks like The Hangover is going to hold on to the top spot this weekend, I thought it might fade a bit more than it has.

Leah_Michelle · Jun 14, 2009

maestrowork said:
Some of us have been doing predictions or analysis of the (summer) box office, so I think it deserves its own thread.

Haha, we're finally moving it from Star Trek? :tongue

maestrowork said:
UP is second with astounding staying power

UP is a ridiculous %, like 98% I believe on Rotten Tomatoes...no movie has been this high since Return of the King.

dgiharris · Jun 15, 2009

Here are the top five (this weekend, total to date)

1. The Hangover ($33 million, $105 million)

2. Up ($30 million, $187 million)

3. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 ($25 million)

4. Night at the Museum II< (9.6 million, $143 million)

5. Land of the Lost ($9.1 million, $34 million)

Wow, I'm surprised Hangover managed to stay in #1, though UP is still going strong

THe next releases are:
June 19
$9.99, The Proposal, Whatever Works, Year One

June 24
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

I guess The Proposal will take #1 next week but I don't think it will be by a huge margin. Then of course, the week after Transformers will assume #1 Dominance for a few weeks

Mel...

maestrowork · Jun 15, 2009

I also predict UP will cross $200M this coming week. The Hangover will probably lose steam and end up with about $160M. The Proposal will likely make about $35-40M this weekend.

Of course, once the Transformers is out, it's a duel between it and HP.

som1luvsmi · Jun 15, 2009

*slight spoiler alert to those who haven't read the books(are there any of those left?)*

The only problem I foresee with Harry Potter just killing at the box office is that the way the movie has to end may keep people from seeing it multiple times.

Leah_Michelle · Jun 15, 2009

dgiharris said:
THe next releases are:
June 19
$9.99, The Proposal, Whatever Works, Year One

June 24
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

I guess The Proposal will take #1 next week but I don't think it will be by a huge margin.

Mel...

I'm interested to see how well Year One does. I thought it looked hilarious, much better than The Proposal.
Sad day that Trek is finally off the list...Had to happen eventually

maestrowork · Jun 15, 2009

The Proposal had one showing/screening the past weekend, something like 811 screens with 88% capacity filled. So I think it will do well, plus it fills the romcom gap. Women and sensitive males need something between Star Trek and Transformers.

Year One is vying for The Hangover crowd -- mostly young men. Also, it has Jack Black - it's pro or con depending on your feeling about him. I personally find him insufferable.

katiemac · Jun 15, 2009

som1luvsmi said:
*slight spoiler alert to those who haven't read the books(are there any of those left?)*

The only problem I foresee with Harry Potter just killing at the box office is that the way the movie has to end may keep people from seeing it multiple times.

Nah, I don't see why this would be a problem. People saw the fifth one multiple times, people read the book multiple times, etc. If they pull it off well I'd actually go so far to say it more people go back to see it specifically for the ending.

And, since its IMAX release isn't until two weeks later, I think there will be a lot of repeat viewings in IMAX.

Leah_Michelle · Jun 15, 2009

maestrowork said:
The Proposal had one showing/screening the past weekend, something like 811 screens with 88% capacity filled. So I think it will do well, plus it fills the romcom gap. Women and sensitive males need something between Star Trek and Transformers.

Year One is vying for The Hangover crowd -- mostly young men. Also, it has Jack Black - it's pro or con depending on your feeling about him. I personally find him insufferable.

I'm not so much a fan of Jack Black as I am of Michael Cera. All of the funny parts in the trailer were from him.

Enzo · Jun 15, 2009

Never understood how those accountant types in Hollywood still want to invest money in Eddie Murphy movies. He's only ok if smothered by other actors, like in Dream Girls, but never in the lead role.

dgiharris · Jun 15, 2009

Leah_Michelle said:
I'm interested to see how well Year One does.

maestrowork said:
...Year One is vying for The Hangover crowd -- mostly young men. Also, it has Jack Black - it's pro or con depending on your feeling about him. I personally find him insufferable.

Year One doesn't look that good to me, at best it looks o.k. I have no 'urge' to see it on the big screen, i'll be more than fine waiting for it to come out on DvD

Enzo said:
Never understood how those accountant types in Hollywood still want to invest money in Eddie Murphy movies. He's only ok if smothered by other actors, like in Dream Girls, but never in the lead role.

How old are you? Eddie Murphy has probably made over a billion dollars for the industry. I mean, every time you hear the theme song for Beverly Hills Cop there are cash registers in Hollywood going "Ka-Ching"

Yes, he's had a bad run recently, but his Nutty Professors and Dr. Doolittles (which isn't that old) did very well. Also, Norbit two years ago had a budget of $60M and earned over $95M.

When he hits, he hits and if you add up all his hits and misses, he still comes out ahead. But I do admit, he needs a change up. Too many people think as you do, and sometimes perception trumps reality.

Mel...

Vincent · Jun 16, 2009

maestrowork said:
Me either. I think Eddie Murphy's (current) career is dead.

It's been dead for years. The last few films were just decomp gasses escaping the corpse.

maestrowork · Jun 23, 2009

My prediction has been correct so far.

The Proposal secured #1 with $33M, quite impressive for a romantic comedy. The Hangover latched onto #2 with $26M, and UP continues its strong streak with $22M after four weeks in theater!

At $220M and still going strong, UP looks likely to surpass Star Trek as the top grosser of the summer (at $240M), probably by this coming weekend. That is, of course, until Transformers opens this week and HP later this summer. But I think it's not entirely impossible for UP to make $280M or even break the $300M mark.

This week: Of course Transformers will take the lead. The question is: By how much? My estimate is BO between $75M and $100M. Its staying power will depend on how good the movie actually is. Will it be this year's Iron Man, or The Incredible Hulk?

Leah_Michelle · Jun 23, 2009

*cringe*
I work the opening of Transformers at the movie theater.
Not looking forward to it. At all.

The box office thread

maestrowork

Fear the Death Ray

katiemac

Five by Five

maestrowork

Fear the Death Ray

ChunkyC

It's hard being green

Leah_Michelle

Fangirling

dgiharris

Disgruntled Scientist

maestrowork

Fear the Death Ray

som1luvsmi

My brother loves me thiiis much! :)

Leah_Michelle

Fangirling

maestrowork

Fear the Death Ray

katiemac

Five by Five

Leah_Michelle

Fangirling

Enzo

dgiharris

Disgruntled Scientist

Vincent

Cheers

maestrowork

Fear the Death Ray

Leah_Michelle

Fangirling