Of all the novels completed and submitted. What percentage actually end up getting published? I know it is difficult to get an accurate figure. But since you folks have so much experience, I would value your estimates.
How many actually make it?
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I don't know. How do I know how many novels are actually completed and submitted every year? I have no way to tell...
That said, fewer than 5000 novels get published commercially (that's not counting self-publication and vanity presses). So you do the math.
That said, fewer than 5000 novels get published commercially (that's not counting self-publication and vanity presses). So you do the math.
In my little corner of the world, about 5% of the submitted manuscripts are published. In other words, 95% will get a letter saying: sorry ...
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Actually I've heard the figure is smaller. 5-10% may get to the partial/full stage (90% is slush). Maybe 1-2% will get published.
Many of which are by experienced writers.
Yes, the odds of getting a book published at all are tiny, especially if it's your first book. All you can do is write the best damn books you can (don't give up after your first failure) and cross your fingers. Most likely you're going to fail again, but at least you'll have tried.
In f/sf, new writers get published with fair regularity. Several per year. Dunno what you write, though.
95% rejected and the remaining 5% published? No way, madam - not in most places anyway.
Don't ask me how it was calculated, but some time ago I read the odds were 32,000:1 against.
But who cares about odds?
A good story, well-written will certainly put you ahead of 95% of the majority of manuscripts submitted.
Then you have to compete with the 5%.
Good luck.
Don't ask me how it was calculated, but some time ago I read the odds were 32,000:1 against.
But who cares about odds?
A good story, well-written will certainly put you ahead of 95% of the majority of manuscripts submitted.
Then you have to compete with the 5%.
Good luck.
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Ah, yes, but I'm not in the same corner of the world as you. And we don't have agents, so all goes into the same pile (apart from those already published, of course, who will have a more direct access to their editor).
I'm sure Maestro's number is the more accurate for the States.
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Yeah, like Bufty said, forget about the odds or statistics. Most slush is unpublishable anyway. Write a great book, polish it, and send it out. You'll only have to compete with the 5% then.
As Uncle Jim said, every author out there has been a "first-time" author at one time or another. And first-time authors get published every year -- we have quite a few right here on AW. Don't lose hope because the statistics look so grim.
As Uncle Jim said, every author out there has been a "first-time" author at one time or another. And first-time authors get published every year -- we have quite a few right here on AW. Don't lose hope because the statistics look so grim.
Actually, that raises another question, and I'm not sure exactly how to put it. The people who have read my work found it good. I'll try not to sound cocky, but getting A's in English and having people complement my writing when they just read a page that was left on the table, makes me confident that my writing is "good".
So, of all the thousands of manuscripts submitted, how many would you think are completely hopeless? How many are just totally boring, or badly written and just clogging up the desk. Is it that 90%? Obviously, from my perspective, I would hope so, but I highly doubt it.
So, of all the thousands of manuscripts submitted, how many would you think are completely hopeless? How many are just totally boring, or badly written and just clogging up the desk. Is it that 90%? Obviously, from my perspective, I would hope so, but I highly doubt it.
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Knowing the exact odds isn't going to magically make them improve. You can't control whether someone accepts your manuscript or not. All you can do is write the best damn books you can. Nothing else will work. Get to it.
I wonder what the odds are for people who don't submit and wait for publishers to approach them and 'discover' them? Do they knock or ring the bell?
Kevin, who so hates the bother of submitting... and will never be discovered.
Kevin, who so hates the bother of submitting... and will never be discovered.
I don't think you leapfrog the 90% necessarily by being "good", but by knowing you have to strive to do better. I'd say that's where most aspiring writers fail (says Mr. Never-been-published), and where the denizens of this board, hopefully, have the advantage.
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You'd be surprised. Anyone can write an essay. But writing a novel is something else -- it takes more than just stringing sentences together. Even the pros may have problems from time to time. I'm not an agent or an editor, but I've read enough dreck to know... slush pile can be a very awful place.
Once in a while, an agent runs a contest in which readers can submit first pages or synopses or queries. The people submitting are savvy enough to read agents' blogs so they're not the most out-of-it. And I'm always shocked by how many entries are immediately flawed by weak control of language, cliched story line, lack of basic technique (POV, for example). I'd go crazy as an agent reading that week after week.
This is not to say, of course, that writers don't get better. Lord knows, I see flaws in my own work too, so I hope I'm getting better. But I do think we're not good judges of our own work, and many writers submit before they're ready.
Sometimes I bemoan that. It clogs up the agents' mail and makes them hostile.
This is not to say, of course, that writers don't get better. Lord knows, I see flaws in my own work too, so I hope I'm getting better. But I do think we're not good judges of our own work, and many writers submit before they're ready.
Sometimes I bemoan that. It clogs up the agents' mail and makes them hostile.
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If you haven't yet read Slushkiller, now's the time.
While you're at it, read Myrtle the Manuscript.
Remember, this is a game of skill, not a game of chance. If you write an excellent book the odds of getting it published are excellent.
While you're at it, read Myrtle the Manuscript.
Remember, this is a game of skill, not a game of chance. If you write an excellent book the odds of getting it published are excellent.
I read an agent somewhere (I wish I could remember who, so I could link it) give the proportions.
it was something along the lines of:
20% sent in a form that makes it difficult to read. 6 point font, weird font, printed on both sides, pages dog-earred and held together by sellotape etc. This also includes people who fill the envelope with sparkles or somesuch to 'attract attention', or who use purple paper. Severe grammatical / spelling errors.
40% The prose itself in the first couple of pages. Every noun has at least one adjective, or the prose is so purple it blinds the agent, or the first three pages describe the weather, or mild to moderate spelling / grammar issues.
20 % plot is cliched, or is yet another novel about x, which has saturated the market over the last year, or plot is just, well, boring ( or boringly described) Or genre is not something this agent handles, or they just can't see where they will place a space opera about rampant lust bunnies from planet Zog.
10% The style. It's just not this agents cup of tea. Or it's trying to be experimental and actually comes across as unintentionally humourous, or makes the agent get the dictionary out three times on the first page, or the first sentence doesn't stop till page two.
Remaining 10% ( ish) will get partial / full request.
it was something along the lines of:
20% sent in a form that makes it difficult to read. 6 point font, weird font, printed on both sides, pages dog-earred and held together by sellotape etc. This also includes people who fill the envelope with sparkles or somesuch to 'attract attention', or who use purple paper. Severe grammatical / spelling errors.
40% The prose itself in the first couple of pages. Every noun has at least one adjective, or the prose is so purple it blinds the agent, or the first three pages describe the weather, or mild to moderate spelling / grammar issues.
20 % plot is cliched, or is yet another novel about x, which has saturated the market over the last year, or plot is just, well, boring ( or boringly described) Or genre is not something this agent handles, or they just can't see where they will place a space opera about rampant lust bunnies from planet Zog.
10% The style. It's just not this agents cup of tea. Or it's trying to be experimental and actually comes across as unintentionally humourous, or makes the agent get the dictionary out three times on the first page, or the first sentence doesn't stop till page two.
Remaining 10% ( ish) will get partial / full request.
And we haven't yet metioned that even if an aquisition editor loves it, she/he has to convince a whole lot of other people that it will sell.
JJ
JJ
Jennifer Jackson regularly posts how many submissions she receives and those she request partials and full for etc. She also talks regularly about some of the bizarre submissions she receives.
108 submissions received last week = 1 partial request.
Here's a snippet from a post:
JJ
108 submissions received last week = 1 partial request.
Here's a snippet from a post:
JJ
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While we're doing math, remember that one dreadful manuscript sent out five hundred times is the equivalent of five hundred dreadful manuscripts sent out once each.
If your manuscript is dreadful it won't get better by being sent out a lot. That's why I recommend starting a new book the same day you start sending your last one around.
If your manuscript is dreadful it won't get better by being sent out a lot. That's why I recommend starting a new book the same day you start sending your last one around.
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I write with the knowledge that the book will likely not be published, the same way I buy a lottery ticket fairly sure that I will never win. The odds don't stop me from playing and they won't stop me from inflicting my manuscript on agents and editors. I do, however, pick games where the astronomical odds make winning a possibility.
I don't allow myself to worry about how many never make it.
All I know is that I'll be one of the ones that make it. I have to. It's my dream and no amount of rejection will stand in my way.
All I know is that I'll be one of the ones that make it. I have to. It's my dream and no amount of rejection will stand in my way.
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