One industry veteran was saying (about five months ago) that in her experience, it a network typically has to crank out about a dozen misses before it can achieve one hit. It's a lottery of sorts.
If her assessment of the overall process is correct, then that means with this new, conservative, streamlined process, they are in effect reducing the base number for their initial roll of the dice, and thus also reducing the number of potential hits they can eek out of each crap shoot.
Whoever will be giving these rare greenlights to these few lucky pilots had better be ... right.
I'm reminded of an anecdote -- which I'm afraid I'm going to have to paraphrase because I don't really recall the details.
A major studio had just been acquired by a major overseas company and the studio heads had gone half way around the world to explain how they did business -- how the movie business worked.
And they were explaining, "In an average year, we make thirty movies. Out of those thirty, we predict that five of them are going to be extremely successful -- huge hits. And we exect that around five of them will be disasters -- complete failures and they won't even make back the cost of production. And we expect that around twenty of them will be moderately successful."
And one of the Big Executives who'd just bought the company raises his and says, "Excuse me but -- why don't we just not make those five?"
If the networks actually had the ability to read a script and pick a hit -- why does anyone imagine that they wouldn't have been doing that all along? Why wouldn't they have read the scripts and only picked hits to turn into those expensive pilots? Why wouldn't every show turned into a pilot go on to become a successful series?
It's as if a casting director says -- it's just too expensive to do screen tests -- that hasn't been giving us good results, anyway. So, instead, we're getting rid of screen tests and we're just going to look at actors' resumes and head shots and cast that way.
And the ellimination that step is going to improve the end result how?
This is what's known as "false-savings" -- because in the particular financial quarter where they would be spending a lot of money on pilots, they won't be, and so their financial picture will look a lot better -- in that quarter.
But since the process is likely to lead to a worse crop of new shows, since it will mean committing to shows that haven't been put in front of an audience in the form of a pilot, it probably will lead to fewer successful new shows -- which is the whole point of the process -- so in the long run, it will cost them money, because it will cost them viewers.
NMS