The Future of the publishing business

I don't know if using the music industry as a template for publishing is apt. Music doesn't change forms when it goes electronic; a sound is a sound and a song is a song. A book completely morphs when it goes electronic, so I don't think there's much to worry about in that regard. I mean, there've been e-books and e-readers for years and still we have books, we have authors, we have bookstores that are jam-packed every time you walk in them.

I, personally, do not like electronic books. Never read one, likely never will. I have to have the book in front of me, the smell of the paper, the sound of the pages turning. And I assume I'm not alone, given how many paper-and-glue books that are published each year.

Also, I don't think there's any sort of rabid desire to pirate books. Those who read books are a bit of a different crowd than those who download music or pirate DVDs. They're more old-fashioned. More stuck to their ways. And that's a good thing, as I don't see there being a hard push to leak the next Jonathan Franzen novel to the web before it's published.

I was talking to one of the folks at Crown last week on my NYC trip. This woman sells electronic and audio rights for Crown, and she said that she didn't care for electronic books. This is a woman who deals in electronic books, mind you.

I think the business will change, as businesses do. Publishing now looks a lot different than it did in the 1980s, I'm sure. But I don't see the written word going the way of the music business. They're just two completely different art forms.

Wow, what have you been reading? Brave New World and 1984? That's a depressing future. And I completely disagree. Maybe things will move to digital, but I don't think it'll happen in my lifetime. The readers are still too expensive and hardly what I'd call portable.

But then I disagree that music is moving to all free digital. I think there are many of us who enjoy quality over the compressed, digitized MP3 format stuff and CDs will never go away.

I'll bet you think movies will all go away, too, and you can only download those, too.

Publishing is as healthy as ever. Movies are still setting attendance records. And ... oh, wait, I just read that Led Zepplin has finally agreed to release all their music to digital downloaders.

The end truly is near.

Will Lavender said:

I have to have the book in front of me, the smell of the paper, the sound of the pages turning. And I assume I'm not alone, given how many paper-and-glue books that are published each year.

Click to expand...

Amen, Will, and I hope we're in the majority.

Crystal balls are notoriously fuzzy, particularly in areas of the abstract and the farther they try to look down the road. There will always be those who appreciate quality--and those who like the keychain gizmo proclaiming he/she likes quality, or at least the latest fad, which, of course, must be quality or it wouldn't have caught on, right? I'm not sure an entire industry is going to tip decisively toward either extreme.

I'm more optimistic, I guess. This is the "Information Age" and writing is at the heart of it--dissemination modes are only the means. I think that opens up more opportunities than it limits.

Garpy said:

1. Digital files (ebooks) downloaded for free by a generation of customers who have grown up with the idea that digital content (music files, film files, hacked game files) should be completely free.

Click to expand...

I don't know if the rest of your thoughts will come to pass, but I can definitely see this happening. But then we're both miserable bastards.

Free online/electronic content is here to stay, and many of us might have to adapt. However, I agree that most people still prefer to read print (even though e-Ink technology might eventually change that). Audiobooks also will flourish -- but listening to a book is different than reading it, IMHO.

Well it may happen, things evolve, who knows. Right now I'm focussing on the present. I think it is important to keep an eye on what is going on, but we can't dwell on it because there is nothing we can do about it. Currently we do not live in a world where people download books onto book shaped laptops or whathaveyou. We may someday. And when that day come, we'll adapt. Right now, I have enough to worry about with the present, can't get too hyped up on stuff that hasn't happened yet.

Garpy said:

As regard previous postings. When I get all miserable on this subject, the reply is often the ol' 'there will always be a market for book fetishists who love the smell of glue and print'. However, the point is, and it's an important point....that's a niche market. And with each passing year, as nature's cruel attrition whittles their number down, it'll get even niche-ier.

Click to expand...

But it's only been a niche for two centuries. (And really, it's that niche-iness that makes it difficult for pirates to control publishing. As I said above, there isn't that obsessive yearning for new stuff out of publishing the way there is with music and film. Outside of Rowling, ever heard of anybody hawking an unpublished book on a website for double its price? Neither have I. That's the blessing and the curse of the publishing biz, I guess.)

My former teacher, Lynne Tillman, has written extensively on this. Her claim is simplistic, but true: the novel (and she speaks of the novel, but I think you could throw in the catch-all term "book" as well) has been pronounced dead for more than 100 years, yet still there it is on the shelves.

I still maintain that the electronic media will not affect books the way it does other media, because books are not electronic in the first place. There is an adaptation that has to be made that doesn't have to be made with radio or compact discs or film or photography. And look, e-stuff has been around for years now, and the book has been virtually unchanged. It's not like it's a new invention. I remember reading about e-readers a decade ago, and still it's a product that toils in obscurity.

Garpy said:

Heh. I am that. One of life's eternal pessimists (as you well know).

Click to expand...

After reading your last book, I did get that idea.

Even if books are replaced by electronic media, it won't be free. Isn't that what the current SWG strike is about?

I think reading is part of a familial tradition--not exclusively, but certainly mostly--and so my children and the children of other readers love books; love going to book stores and buying books; opening books and feeling them in their hands; and then reading them, privately, alone, without noise or talk or any of the other things that intrude on the solitude of that experience.

Garpy said:

I think, in all honesty, you'd agree with me that in the long run, printed books will largely disappear, becoming a collector's underground industry. The serious debate is over how quickly that would happen. Hmmm?

Click to expand...

I'm an optimist. I won't agree with you. I think there will always be a market for books, if not hard cover, at least paper backs.

But then, I'm still on the lookout for vinyl.

I take issue with some of the things said in the article:

Jeff Bezos, taken from Newsweek Article:
"Music and video have been digital for a long time, and short-form reading has been digitized, beginning with the early Web. But long-form reading really hasn't."

Click to expand...

If by "short-form reading", Jeff's talking about short stories, then whilst I agree that the web has been good at creating more markets for short story writers (lower overheads being the obvious benefit for new start-ups, compared with print media), it does not seem to have led to an upsurge in people buying publications to read short stories.

Jeff Bezos, taken from Newsweek Article:
The battery has to last for a while, he adds, since there's nothing sadder than a book you can't read because of electile dysfunction. (The Kindle gets as many as 30 hours of reading on a charge, and recharges in two hours.)

Click to expand...

That right there is why I'm doubtful as to whether printed books will ever be truly replaced. I can go to my bookshelves and pick up any book I want at any time I want and flick through the pages. With any electronic reader, if I'm low on battery power, I'll need to make sure it's charged or find somewhere to charge it if I don't want my reading time to be interrupted. That's simply too much hassle.

Taken from Newsweek Article:
The handheld device can also hold several shelves' worth of books: 200 of them onboard, hundreds more on a memory card and a limitless amount in virtual library stacks maintained by Amazon. Also, the Kindle allows you to search within the book for a phrase or name.

Click to expand...

But I'd still have to download my book first, and how long will that take? What happens if my connection breaks midway through (iPod's music store still charges you for the music, is that what Amazon/wherever are going to do?) What happens if there's a bug in the Kindle which corrupts the text or a significant part of it? I can't think of anything more frustrating than getting to the climax of a murder mystery and finding it's all turned into wingdings.

As regards finding words or phrases - well, so what? That's useful if you're an academic or whoever and you need to find a particular segment or quote, but are there many readers out there who'd want the same function?

Taken from Newsweek Article:
Amazon prices Kindle editions of New York Times best sellers and new releases in hardback at $9.99.

Click to expand...

Are there any Americans out there who can tell me whether this is cheap/reasonable/whatever? Specifically, is it cheaper than physical books on Amazon's site once the discounts are applied?

Taken from Newsweek Article:
Bezos explains that it's only fair to charge less for e-books because you can't give them as gifts, and due to restrictive antipiracy software, you can't lend them out or resell them.

Click to expand...

Well, how's that going to work? Most of the books I get are presents - I give books as presents as well. If I can't do that on the Kindle, then how is it supposed to replace the printed word?

There's this point that keeps getting made in the article about how the younger generations do everything on screen. Well, they do certain things on screen (like check emails quickly or skim through documents) but whenever anyone in my office has to actually sit down and read something, they print it out.

10 years ago, technical pundits were predicting that on-line news forums would signal the death of newspapers, but they're still here - all that's happened is that technology gives them additional support. I do find it interesting that at the end of the article they talk about books being dead in 50 years time.

MM

Will Lavender said:

I remember reading about e-readers a decade ago, and still it's a product that toils in obscurity.

Click to expand...

I think this is a key point and one that is overlooked. The e-reader technology has had a decade to mature (a lifetime to digital tech) and yet it barely gets mention for market share. I was particularly concerned about it when a fellow writer's club member and tech columnist touted his e-reader that he could carry around and read while waiting, riding, flying, etc. I realized he had a vested interest in the thing, but expected something to happen. It hasn't in the six years since.

Predicting trends is tough. However, I think Garpy's point about a generation of freebie readers can't be ignored. How it will affect book publishing is anyone's guess, but I don't think the demographics are the same. We have computers in the classroom now, and they enhance the learning experience in many ways, but still the textbook is king, and today's youth are experiencing a media mix that accepts printed material along with digital. The relatively few kids who grow up loving printed books today will be tomorrow's printed book buyer, just as with generations before them.

Is it a tossup? Not quite yet. I think before print goes out something else will come along that we can't even foresee today. Maybe a mind meld?

One other thing is that holding a book in your hand can never be the same as reading it on the computer screen. Those who have a love for books will always have a love for books. There is something very intimate about touching pages and holding your face close to the print while you huddle in the bed at night with your trusty reading lamp and a pillow to prop up on.
I personally dislike e-books and I find no joy in reading them. However give me the same story on physcial paper and you can woo me. I love books. The smell, the touch, the sounds that the pages make, for me at least, books are here to stay.

Yeah, last time I dropped a book in the bath I just toweled it dry and kept on reading, even the pages stuck together. Hah! Can't do that with an e-reader.

Shadow_Ferret said:

I'm an optimist. I won't agree with you. I think there will always be a market for books, if not hard cover, at least paper backs.

But then, I'm still on the lookout for vinyl.

Click to expand...

I agree.

The technology for ebooks has been around for a long time, but they've never really taken off. Laptops have been around for a long time, but you don't see many downloading illegal pdf files of novels to read (I actually have seen a few people do this with the new Harry Potter--BUT they all still bought the book because they needed that REAL feeling of reading a REAL book).

Even if the old ebook readers were old and clunky, they've had a decade to mature and become a hit. Compare this to the ipod or mp3 player, which isn't any older, but has become ubiquitous now. Compare it to the iPhone, which is very new, very buggy, and will undoubtedly not become practical for a few more years, but it's still a hit. But such things are inherently different from books, and consumers of these products are inherently different from readers.

Many of you probably edit your WIPs while they're still on the computer a little bit, at least, but even the most computer-savvy of you--don't you still print it off at some point? And editors still take the written word, not the binary-produced image of one. Even those who take email queries print off your manuscripts to read.

Music is accessible to almost anyone. Ask anyone on earth and they'll almost certainly listen to some kind of music. Therefore, the likelihood of abuse is much, much higher. There are masses and masses of people who don't appreciate the effort it takes to compose/write/play the songs they listen to, and they have no problem downloading it for free. However, today there are many, many audiobuffs who like good, quality music, and appreciate it, and--even when it's available for free--buy it in a variety of forms, from mp3 to CD to DVD to vinyl.

The intrinsic difference between the music industry and the publishing industry is that the vast majority of readers behave like these audiobuffs would with music. There are much, much fewer readers than music listeners, and so the majority of them are of the type that will value the written word in its printed form, pay a fair price for it, and cherish it for years and years to come.

And like Shadow_Ferret said, even in this age of downloading culture, there are still many of us who flock to the local music shop and shell out several Andrew Jackson's on good ol' 180g vinyl. Even though we're 18.

I'm missing something here. Who cares if the book disappears? People will still want to read stuff on their swanky new ebook readers. And who's going to write the stuff they want to read? Writers, of course!

Right, that's why the music and film industry's have disappeared.

Oh..wait.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4718249.stm
It's an old article but:

The study found that regular downloaders of unlicensed music spent an average of £5.52 a month on legal digital music.

This compares to just £1.27 spent by other music fans.

Click to expand...

I am not sure, Garpy. The same has been said about movies and music for ages and yet artists and producers are still making oodles of money. Yes, piracy is going to be with us for a long time, more and more so, but I think people are still going to pay for content, if it's something they want. For example, Ratatouille is #1 purchase/download on iTune this week, even though I'm sure you can download it for free on bit-torrent anywhere.

What may change is the business model and royalty standards. But artists and content providers are still going to get paid. And if the WGA strike is any indication (it's mostly over Internet royalties), I don't think the day when people can freely and legally rip off an artist/writer will come any time soon.