How much does a debut fiction novel make if had decent sales?

Depends on what you mean by decent. Considering that it's a rare debut novel, from what I hear, that pays out... *shrug*

There are NOT many places that even want a "solid" debut novel. If you look at publishers marketplace (and having a subscription to this online resource would answer many of your questions) you would see that most deals are for established writers and if I count the debuts for maybe 6 months there's maybe 10 which have sold for advances between $15,000 and a $million. Keep in mind thousands and thousands are pitched over the course of a year. Most (and I think my editor mentioned 95%) do not earn out and after the first printing of maybe 1500 copies - are no longer produced. Publishers are looking for that one book that will sell millions - that "Lottery" ticket so to speak - a Harry Potter or a Da Vinci code.
A lot of new writers ask about "average" advance or "average" length of time it takes to get an agent or sell to a publisher- There IS no such animal-
Each circumstance is unique.
That's why there's no formula.

In the month of October 2007 Publisher's Marketplace lists 25 novels sold by what it calls debut novelists (some have considerable publishing credits for things that are not novels).

2 are listed as very nice deals ($50,000-99,000)
1 is a good deal ($100,000 - $250,000)
4 are significant deals ($251,000 - $499,000)
and 1 was a major deal, described as seven figures.

Among the rest, several were described as nice deals ($1 - $49,000) while several more were unspecified, but sold either as pre-empts or at auction, which implies money.

I love PM, but it relies on agent reporting of deals, and I'm sure a bare fraction of books sold are reported there. It is also going to skew more towards the better deals, I suspect. And October may be an exceptional month, what with Frankfurt.

Yup it is- if you go back month to month and year to year you see how variable it is- I think the proportion of pitched novels to sold novels is ludicrously high even if you count those not posted on PM. I guess my point was that "average" is meaningless. It's really not possible to give dragoon the figures he asks for

dragoon_elf said:

I understand that many places give advances of $1000 for a solid, debut novel.

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A thousand bucks is a pretty poor advance, isn't it? Perhaps at small presses you see advances for that much money, but I think it's well under the average advance for even debut novels at mid-size and large publishers.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

How much does a debut fiction novel make if had decent sales?

I don't know, but I'm guessing a lot more than a debut fact novel.

badum-CLANG!

With regards to the agent's cut, though: generally, if there's an agent negotiating the deal, they'll be taking their 15% off the top of a larger figure than you would have gotten without them. They stay in business by making their clients money, not by costing them money.

Will Lavender said:

A thousand bucks is a pretty poor advance, isn't it? Perhaps at small presses you see advances for that much money, but I think it's well under the average advance for even debut novels at mid-size and large publishers.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

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You're not wrong. My debut (and still only published) novel got a $6000 advance, with a note that not a penny more would be considered (because the publisher loved it but had no idea know how to market it, and didn't expect it to sell well). It was understood that 6k was the publisher's bottom advance. And this was in 1991.

And yes, there is no "average" amount for any debut novel. Even if there were an average advance, it would be rendered meaningless by the unpredictability of book sales.

i'd say if you were offered 10K as an advance, that's not doing too bad. as mentioned, small publishers may not be able to come up with that kind of money, but, egh, so what? think of it this way: an advance is nothing more than giving you money for book sales up front. if your advance is $1, that simply means you'll be getting (hopefully) your royalty checks that much faster, as your royalty checks won't start coming until sales have covered the advance. as mentioned, seeing as how a lot of debut novels don't cover the advance, try to get as much as you can ~ that's what agents are for, eh?

if a publisher ever had a massive brain blackout that disrupted his entire reasoning centre and cut me a cheque for ten grand for an advance, i'd jump on it and ask if he was interested in any land in florida. someone offering me a thousand grand? i dunno, i'd have to think about that. six thousand grand? mmm... probably. a hundred thousand grand? please don't as i'd die while laughing maniacally.

I look at it the same way you do, Preyer. Sometimes a large advance might not be the best thing for a debut author. If the books sells, the writer is going to get the money anyway, and the royalties start coming sooner. If the book doesn't sell, and the sell-through sucks, the author gets to keep the advance, but might face an uphill battle getting the next one published. Then there's another viewpoint some people are taking: tell the publisher to keep the advance and apply it to co-op.

The only reason why I'm keen on having a big advance is simply because a bigger advance often means the publisher has a great deal of faith in the book, and will push harder to recoup the advance. It would be nice to have the added security that the publisher will at least try and publicize the book somehow (also, let's not forget that receiving a big advance is publicity in itself, although of course that brings more pressure). Otherwise, I could have a perfectly fantastic book that flops just because not enough people find it and word of mouth doesn't get a chance to generate.

Of course, publishers don't have the power to make a bestseller if the book isn't what the public want to read. But still, having a large, resourceful publishing house behind your book enough to offer six figures or more can only be a good thing. If I was offered a £1000 advance, I couldn't help but wonder if my book would be dismissed as filler once I'd accepted the contract.

dragoon_elf said:

I understand that many places give advances of $1000 for a solid, debut novel. But how much (on average) does the debut novelist earn for a novel that sells pretty well?

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As someone else noted, I'd call a $1,000 advance fairly low, even for a debut novel. A more accurate ballpark is probably closer to $5,000 -- depending on numerous factors. As for earnings, if the novel is published in hardcover, the print run is likely to be somewhere between 5,000 and 20,000 copies (with a major publisher, less with a small press); the price is likely to be around $25 per copy, and your royalty will probably be 10% for the first 5,000 copies, 12.5% for the second 5,000 copies, and 15% of every copy above that. (Note that royalties should always be percentage of cover price, NOT net.) So do the math. If you have an agent, her 15% commission will come off the top -- that's advance and royalties. Every dollar you earn on a deal she negotiated will earn her fifteen cents. (And a good agent is worth every one of those pennies.)

dragoon_elf said:

What about for a novelist who makes the NYT bestseller list? What about if an agent gets 15%?

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See above. As others have noted, it's in the agent's best interests to get you as much money, the best deal, possible, because she earns money only when you do. As for a novelist who makes the NYT list, the deal used to be you could figure on adding at least $100,000 to your next advance negotiated after making the NYT, but I'm not sure that's true anymore. The truth is that your advances can jump hugely -- or they can increase modestly. Depends on the publisher, the agent, the book's performance, even what genre of book you're talking about. If the author is producing a "kind" of book that can be packaged and marketed effectively, in a genre where readership can grow consistently, and the publisher knows that, advances are likely to climb higher faster. If it's a lit fic novel that may have hit because of of a timely (or timeless) subject, and the publisher is less certain of the author's future work, they may be more conservative in offering a lucrative deal.

NYT bestsellers vary hugely in the print runs and sales figures, unfortunately, so there's no good way to get a handle on those. A hardcover bestseller may get on the list selling a few thousand copies in a week (nationwide); a mass-market paperback may need to sell ten times as many copies to make the list. You can easily have two titles falling within the top 10, say, whose sales can differ by tens of thousands of copies.

All that said, the simple truth is that you're likely to earn lots more money for a NYT bestseller than for one that never makes bestseller lists. However, it's also entirely possible to have a slow, steady seller that racks up good numbers for months and, ultimately, sells more than books that rocketed to the top of the NYT list and then dropped off in a few weeks. In fact, genre fiction tends to do just that, selling hotly in large numbers for a few weeks, and then dropping back to "backlist" sales numbers of, maybe, a few thousand sales each year.

Mind you, as your backlist grows, those thousands of sales add up, and as long as your publisher keeps the titles in print, you can see nice royalties twice a year, especially if your frontlist titles keep hitting the bestseller lists.

dragoon_elf said:

Those are my questions. Obviously there are so many factors involved, but I would really like to at least see some ballpark figures to look at.

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Really hard to offer you a decent ballpark, because there are no accurate, reliable "averages" in this business. Only experience -- your unique experience -- will show you what it's possible for you to earn. And that, unfortunately, takes time and patience.

Generally speaking, unless you have an independent means of support like a willing spouse, stock dividends, or a trust fund or other inheritance, don't quit your day job unless and until you're sure you can earn a decent living writing.

You will make 6.2 thousand dollars and then have 2.5 children.

*shrug*

Joe Moore said:

I Then there's another viewpoint some people are taking: tell the publisher to keep the advance and apply it to co-op.

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I really hope not many authors are doing this, seriously. First, because a publisher isn't likely to DO that -- apply the offered advance to co-op. That just isn't how they work. And, second, because perception means a lot in this business; if you're a "cheap" buy, the publisher simply isn't as likely to put money or any unusual effort behind your work.

The more it costs them, the more likely they are to work to get that money back.

Yes, there are probably exceptions to that rule, but trust me when I say they would be rare.

dragoon_elf said:

How much is a nice twice a year royalty?

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That's really just the same question asked a different way. "It depends."

"How much is a nice twice a year royalty?"

Aside from the fact that every author earns a different amount, you also really have to remember that different amounts of money mean different things to different people.

I am a single woman renting an apartment, no car, no children, no pets, and lucky enough to have no debt. I basically have myself to support and that's it. So for me I don't need a lot to get by. Others have children to support, maybe even parents, several cars and credit cards to pay off. They might need a bit more.

Everyone has their own situations, and their own opinions on what is "good" money. So it is quite impossible to answer your question unfortunately!

'making good money' is what keeps you out of debtor's prison. (okay, i know there's supposedly no such thing anymore ~ that's why everyone came to america. we're a land of tax-dodging bums. but we have really, really big guns.)

good point about publishers working hard to earn back big advances. i'm going to go out on a limb here and say a debut novel that's got a six figure advance is so rare (relatively speaking) that it's not really worth considering (like dreaming about winning the lottery). but, could the opposite be true, too? if tor offers a thousand bucks, okay, you're filler, but a thousand bucks to beef skunk press may be a major investment for them and they'll work as much as possible because they can't afford to lose a nickel. am i off base on my reasoning?

dragoon_elf said:

and of course, having a book published, receiving great reviews, and seeing it in bookstores TRUMPS big cash in the end...

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Add a '?' to the end of this and you have the question I'm most often asked by non-writers. The answer is always: "Well, if your employer slaps you on the back, praises your accomplishments, and makes you employee of the week, wouldn't that trump receiving a paycheck?"

I bet you answered no, didn't you?

Look, the notion that the act of being published, garnering reviews, and seeing your work in a bookstore is far more important than any business aspect is one of the most insidious notions out there. If THAT'S all it takes to make you happy, then god bless you. But, publishing is a business and like any good businessman/woman, the bottom line is of paramount importance to you. The bottom line in the business of writing is getting paid the highest possible advance with the most advantageous royalty arrangement, from a publisher who has the wherewithal to get your book's mug plastered across the front counter at B&N.

As a friend explained to me: if you're not concerned about the money, you're setting yourself up to get screwed

Scott

Memnon624 said:

Look, the notion that the act of being published, garnering reviews, and seeing your work in a bookstore is far more important than any business aspect is one of the most insidious notions out there. If THAT'S all it takes to make you happy, then god bless you. But, publishing is a business and like any good businessman/woman, the bottom line is of paramount importance to you. The bottom line in the business of writing is getting paid the highest possible advance with the most advantageous royalty arrangement, from a publisher who has the wherewithal to get your book's mug plastered across the front counter at B&N.

As a friend explained to me: if you're not concerned about the money, you're setting yourself up to get screwed

Scott

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Well, I will disagree. I have been writing since I was a kid (let's just say for twenty plus years) and have not received fame or fortune. Publishing may be a business for agents and publishers and book stores and graphic artists, but to dismiss it as you do is, well, a little harsh. I certainly don't equate the hours I put in as a writer with the hours I put in as a lawyer. Would I rather a pat on the back from top agents/publishers/reviewers than a million bucks? Probably not, true. But would I rather a pat on the back from top agents/publishers/reviewers than $5,000, probably so.
I'll rewrite your sentence to reflect my opinion: if you're mainly concerned about the money, you're probably wasting your time trying to get published.
Just my humble opinion.

Of course it's a business. But it's a business with a large number of numerical variables, so while I should approach my work as a valued commodity which I need to sell for its -- and my -- worth...I can't spend too much time obsessing over it. I need to get on with the next product, the next novel.

Figuring out the money, or trying to guess, is useful when you have specifics to work off of. But there were no specifics offered in the original questions of this thread, so asking those particular questions is less useful than just writing and trying to do what you can.

preyer said:

good point about publishers working hard to earn back big advances. i'm going to go out on a limb here and say a debut novel that's got a six figure advance is so rare (relatively speaking) that it's not really worth considering (like dreaming about winning the lottery). but, could the opposite be true, too? if tor offers a thousand bucks, okay, you're filler, but a thousand bucks to beef skunk press may be a major investment for them and they'll work as much as possible because they can't afford to lose a nickel. am i off base on my reasoning?

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In relative terms, I guess a $1000 offer from a small press might be just as precious to them as a $100,000 advance is to a big house. But even if the small publisher is just as dedicated as the big publisher is when it comes to earning back the advance, it doesn't change the fact that bigger publishers have more connections with bookstores, bigger PR and marketing departments, more sophisticated art departments, etc... Not to say that small publishers are incapable of doing a good job, just that bigger publishers have a wider range of resources when it comes to publishing books, not to mention a long-standing reputation to uphold.

As for a six-figure advance being rare... I guess they are, but I don't think the lottery comparison works. After all, it's not a random chance. It's based on the quality and marketability of your work and/or you. Six figure debuts aren't *that* rare anyhow, at least not in children's fiction (which I guess is quite hot right now). There seems to be at least two or three a year. Publisher's are looking for the next big thing, so I think they are quite willing to splash out on one author provided they feel strongly enough about the project and feel there is a large market for it.

I've read and listened to a lot of agent interviews that actually say debut authors are actually better than novelists who have been published with modest sales (e.g. less than 10,000). That's because authors with no track record are an unknown quantity, and there's always the hope that they might become the next breakout. Whereas if you've been given a $5000 advance and sold 7,000 copies, sure, you've earned out and you might be given another book deal, but the anticipation won't be quite as strong this time round. The marketplace seems to demand that authors strike big with their first book nowadays. Publishers just aren't as willing to wait around and build an author's career when there are so many other fish in the sea, and so many potential breakouts waiting to hatch.

dragoon_elf said:

How much is a nice twice a year royalty?

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Well, I have a substantial backlist still in print, and those titles -- particularly those that were bestsellers and continue to sell steadily -- earn me between $30k and $50k each spring and fall.

That said, in the early days of my career, it was more likely that I'd earn a few hundred or thousand dollars per year in royalties. Hitting the bestseller lists AND continuing to produce so that my body of work continued to grow has meant that twice-yearly royalty statements more often come with checks attached.

Also, if you have work that went out of print (as many genre writers do), and is reissued after you become a bestseller, those titles can generate some very nice money -- because most of them will have either earned out their advances in their first lives, or be so close that they do so quickly.

*Never* depend on royalties in the sense of guessing what will come in and figuring that amount into your budget; even when you consistently see a range of royalties, there's still no way of predicting if that will continue. Look at royalties as "free" money, a gift you may get once or twice a year, and spend it only when it's in your hot little hands.

preyer said:

i'm going to go out on a limb here and say a debut novel that's got a six figure advance is so rare (relatively speaking) that it's not really worth considering (like dreaming about winning the lottery). but, could the opposite be true, too? if tor offers a thousand bucks, okay, you're filler, but a thousand bucks to beef skunk press may be a major investment for them and they'll work as much as possible because they can't afford to lose a nickel. am i off base on my reasoning?

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No, you're probably right. There are differences between major houses and small presses, and how the money is perceived by both parties would be one of them. A small press might, say, be unable to offer big bucks upfront, but because they're building their own name as well as yours, have a really good marketing plan for your book. (Any publisher that actually thinks it through enough to have a plan for a specific title gets a gold star in my book.)

That's just one of many reasons why an author and his/her agent should know as much as possible about a publisher before any agreements are signed.