six figures
It's good to remember that both Stephen King and Tom Clancy received four figure advances for their first novels. King received only $2,500 for Carrie. Now both receive eight figure advances.
Unless there are extraordinary circumstances, teh writer is already famous for something else, the novel is a movie tie-in, the novel is a sequel to a famous novel such as Gone With the Wind, etc., first time novelists are extremely unlikely to receive more than low five figure advances, and will often receive four figure advances.
This is not necessarily a bad thing. If you want to kill your career quick, receive a six figure advance and sell only four figure number of novels. It happens.
Publishers only give advances they think will earn back, no matter who the writer is. And as I remeber one publisher saying, "If you want a million dollar advance, just write me a novel I know will earn two million dollars."
This is really the secret. If you want a six figure advance, then something about you or the novel will have to make the publisher pretty much absolutely certain the book will earn twice as much as he's giving you.
Manipulating the media isn;t any good. Eitehr you have a reason for being well-known, and for this degree of fame to make publishers think it will translate into novel sales, or you don't. Publicity alone is often worthless.
If your name is a household word, you'll receive a six fingure advance. If not, you'll most likely have to earn the six figures from royalties.
New Writers worry too much about the size of the advance. A huge advance can be as much a minus as a plus. A novel given a huge advance can fail to sell and ruin a writer's career. A novel with a small advance, on the other hand, can sell two million copies, and make the writer's career.
Nearly all the famous writers out there started were given very small advances for their first novels.
The only quibble I have with Sparks" advice is when he says the paperback market was much larger in the 70's. It really wasn't. The problem now isn;t with teh size of the paperback market, but with the size of the conglomerate publishers and the fact that these publishers are really run by accountants. They want a constant turnover of writers in hope of finding the next King or Clancy.
He's right in saying that writing a good novel isn't enough. It must be a good novel that has mass appeal, and since no one knows why a given novel has mass appeal, you just write the best you can and hope your taste in writing translates into the public's taste for reading.