Online book sales stagnant

[e.dashwood]

I'm not sure this is the best forum for this, but I think it's relevant to PA because of their claim they are the wave of the future. I've also read on the PA board the myth that Amazon and its ilk are the future of book sales along with the mistaken belief that online sales have a bigger share of the market than they in fact do.

Yesterday, the NY Times had this article: "Online Sales Lose Steam"

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/17/technology/17ecom.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

(It's free but you have to register)

The article makes this observation:

Forrester Research, a market research company, projects that online book sales will rise 11 percent this year, compared with nearly 40 percent last year.

I think online book sales are only 5 percent of the market, anyway, and this looks like it's going to shrink. This is actually below the share of online sales for all merchandise, which will reach 7 percent only by 2011. Among the reasons for the online slowdown for books and everything else:

Nancy F. Koehn, a professor at Harvard Business School who studies retailing and consumer habits, said that the leveling off of e-commerce reflected the practical and psychological limitations of shopping online. She said that as physical stores have made the in-person buying experience more pleasurable, online stores have continued to give shoppers a blasé experience. In addition, online shopping, because it involves a computer, feels like work.

“It’s not like you go onto Amazon and think: ‘I’m a little depressed. I’ll go onto this site and get transported,’ ” she said, noting that online shopping is more a chore than an escape.

But Ms. Koehn and others say that online shopping is running into practical problems, too. For one, Ms. Koehn noted, online sellers have been steadily raising their shipping fees to bolster profits or make up for their low prices.

To meet the need for a more brick and mortar experience, stores like Borders are allowing customers to order books online and pick them up in the store. Research indicates that when you go into a store to pick up an online order, you might buy something else.

But PA is cut out of this brick-and-click model. Express in-store pickup, as they call it, is available only for books physically in stock at a designated Borders store.

[James D. Macdonald]

On-line shopping has all of the advantages of going to a department store in the old Soviet Union: You couldn't look at the items, and if you bought one you couldn't get it for a couple of weeks.

There's still a place for catalog sales, but you know something? The Sears catalog didn't run physical stores out of business a century ago, and I don't see on-line sales doing it today.

[abemorgantis]

I think online book sales have a bright future--they'll never replace brick and mortar stores--so I see this a down year. I think online sales may eventually reach something like 20% of all retail books sold, which will happen, just not any time soon.

And really PA doesn't care if their books sell online as long as their own authors buy them.

[janetbellinger]

I find Amazon really useful for non-fiction books, like texts etc. Before I buy fiction though, I need the textile experience of running my fingers over it and feasting my eyes on the cover, smelling the new print etc.

[DeadlyAccurate]

I think online book sales have a bright future--they'll never replace brick and mortar stores--so I see this a down year. I think online sales may eventually reach something like 20% of all retail books sold, which will happen, just not any time soon.

And really PA doesn't care if their books sell online as long as their own authors buy them.

According to that article (which I read about in the Shelf Awareness email newsletter), that's already the case.

Forrester Research has projected that online book sales will rise 11% this year, compared to nearly 40% last year. Forrester also estimates that 21% of all book sales occur online.
(bolding mine)

I'm one of those people who buys a lot of books online. (I also do 90% of my Christmas shopping online and purchase the majority of my DVDs, games, and birthday/anniversary gifts online). But I don't think bookstores are going anywhere either.

[lkp]

Did any of you see the notice, I think it was in Publisher's Lunch, that Amazon excpects to make no money off its Harry Potter preorders because of all their discounts etc.?
I'm not certain what the implicatons of that are. I can guess at some, but I'm hoping someone more knowledgeable will jump in.

[Christine N.]

Yep, they've discounted so deeply to compete with Wal-mart, etc.. that no one is making money off the HP books. Except Jo. Not even with all the volume.

That's there own fault IMO. The demand is so huge they would have sold just as many books without the huge discounts.


And I do buy fiction from Amazon, but only books I've heard about or from authors I like. I can't 'browse' Amazon like I can a bookstore.

[James D. Macdonald]

They're hoping to get folks in the door with the Harry Potter books. Once there, they'll buy more stuff.

That's the hope, anyway.

[Tina]

I find Amazon is a great source for second-hand copies of out of print books. I just had a childhood book delivered to me and it was a thrill to read it again.

However, on-line sales won't likely replace the stores. If you are buying online you have already heard about the book, maybe read reviews and know what you are looking for. I've found browsing online for specific types of books takes much longer than going to a particular department in a bookstore.

With online shopping you lose out on the experience of seeing all sorts of goodies you wouldn't have even known existed without a brick and mortar store. I've found some of my favourite books this way.

Uncle Jim, was it you that posted a quote or reference saying 90% (I think) of all books sold online are also available in bookstores?

[Christine N.]

lkp was specifically referring to Amazon. That's a one book order, at a ridiculous discount, and a guarantee to deliver on July 21.

That's shooting yourself in the foot.

I'm not buying nuttin' else that night. I'm getting my book and making a beeline for the door.

[JulieB]

I'm sure they are counting on you to buy something else. In the store there will be racks and racks of books (that may appeal to parents) and tie-in merchandise (for the kiddos) strategically placed. You probably stand in a line that reaches to the back of your store to get the book, which means you see all these tempting end caps. Then you have to wend your way to the front of the store where you'll stand in line past ... tables of merchandise.

In the online world they'll tempt you with "people who bought this also bought..." or "special! Buy this book and get (something you may really want) at a teeny discount!" Sure, there are a number of people who will just buy the book and go, and the bean counters figure that into the projections.

As a former retail store manager, I know the drill. And it ain't made by Black and Decker!

I don't think it's a surprise to see the growth in online book sales level off. It's happened in every other online (or offline) sales category. That's why Amazon expanded into other merchandise.

[WWWWolf]

On-line shopping has all of the advantages of going to a department store in the old Soviet Union: You couldn't look at the items, and if you bought one you couldn't get it for a couple of weeks.

Uh... I've only been to a real Soviet Union era store a few times, and since I was just a kid back then, I can't remember much. But based on what I remember, I think the analogy is a bit different: Not much stuff on the shelf, it's all in this weird language, probably outdated too, you have to specifically point at the thing at the shelf to get the Most Apathetic Salesperson Imaginable to show the item to you, and then you have to pay for it in this weird currency. And when you try to head home afterwards, some guys in uniforms are a bit curious about the things.

And in modern world of online stores, it's kind of same. Except that instead of a weird currency we have stubborn banks that fail to come up with a convenient, universal way to pay for things (credit cards just don't count). And I think the post office has loosened up the uniform code lately.

(I haven't ordered from Amazon specifically, but I've had very similar problems with all online stores...)

[Will Lavender]

I find Amazon really useful for non-fiction books, like texts etc. Before I buy fiction though, I need the textile experience of running my fingers over it and feasting my eyes on the cover, smelling the new print etc.

I'm with you.

I own a lot of books, nearly 4,000 or so, and I bet I've bought no more than 20 or 25 or those online.

I love bookstores. It's just that simple. I love bookstores and being around physical books.

[BarbJ]

Amazon is great for finding older books one can't find in bookstores, such as the 4 -yes! - John Dickson Carr's I ordered today. I also ordered the last HP (guaranteed delivery on release day) through them since I have no desire to be trampled or suffocated in a store, no matter how much fun.

Ah, but nothing, nothing can replace walking into a bookstore with money saved for the day in your pocket and a world of possibilities, or an on-stretching possibility of worlds, just waiting to be carried home...

[Ken Schneider]

Online books sales aren't stagnant. You just have to have the right book listed.

Like one that has some pre-publicity, a real publisher, and an established readership.

[BoyBlog]

I usually only buy school texts, or books I've ready before online.
But, I buy tons of music, electronics, etc.

[James D. Macdonald]

Sales curves are always going up, going down, or staying level. Nothing goes up forever -- sooner or later sales are going to level off. That's what the story is saying, not that on-line sales have stopped, but that they aren't growing (as fast as they used to).

[JulieB]

I'm not surprised. It's hard to keep up 40% growth over an extended period of time.

[cooltouch]

For me, one of Amazon's most attractive features is the reviews it has of its books. When I'm shopping for a book, whether it's a brick-and-mortar place or an online business, I don't always have the time to page through a book to a great enough extent to form an opinion about it. Being able to read several reviews helps me arrive at a decision. In this respect, Amazon has it all over Barnes and Noble. Besides, their prices are better (which matters to me), and, as has already been mentioned, I can find out-of-print books there. This latter capability has been extremely valuable for me in the past.

Also, I wonder if the NYT reporter and those interviewed bothered to factor in the fuel costs associated with just driving to a store and back now. This experience can become especially frustrating when I might have to drive to several different stores looking for a book before finally locating it.

No, I think that online shopping in general, and places like amazon.com in particular, are here to stay. They may not do in the brick-and-mortar stores, but what they offer is valuable.

Best,

Michael

[Nakhlasmoke]

I almost only buy books online. The bookstores NEVER carry what I want, so if something has to ordered, I might as well do it from the comfort of my home.

The SF/Fantasy section in Exclusive books is lucky to be three shelves, and is always filled with things like Eragon. Add to this the fact that I have no car, so driving to the nearest shopping centre with a decent-sized Exclusive Books means I have to organise a lift. More trouble than it's worth for me.

I know I'm the minority in this thread, but I just thought I'd point out that online sales do work for some people.

[brianm]

I like to browse and hold the book in my hands before I purchase it. I spend a great deal of time in bookstores and at thrift stores buying books. I'm usually reading 3-4 books at a time.

I have bought books online but they have usually been from authors I know (AW members) or books that are out of print.

Online buying is here to stay but it won't drive out the brick and mortar bookstores. At least, not in my lifetime.

[Ken Schneider]

For me, one of Amazon's most attractive features is the reviews it has of its books. When I'm shopping for a book, whether it's a brick-and-mortar place or an online business, I don't always have the time to page through a book to a great enough extent to form an opinion about it. Being able to read several reviews helps me arrive at a decision.

Best,

Michael

Unless the reviews are all written by your friends. Or bogus reviews by the author.