How long before the urban/fantasy/paranormal/romance market implodes?

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BiggerBoat

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I'm seeing more and more of these things in the bookstore, all with virtually the same cover (sexy gal with her back to the camera, dressed in a black latex dress--gee...those things must be comfortable). Most seem to involve werewolves, vampires and fey (usually in combination).

Which worries me somewhat, because my WIP is an urban supernatural/fantasy with a female protaganist and bits of romance (hey, but no vampires or werewolves!)

Any predictions? Are we on the cusp of a chick-lit style implosion as the market gets flooded?
 

dragonjax

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I'd say yes and no.

Yes, in that there's no doubt in my mind, paranormal is hot right now...and that means it's going to cool off. It's the way of these things -- I don't think there's any one subgenre that stays hot indefinitely.

No, in that even if a subgenre has cooled (chick lit) or even bottomed out (some have speculated this happened to thrillers), there will always be room for exceptional new work, from talented debut authors. It will probably be harder to get that initial novel published--but I firmly believe that it will still happen.

So...best advice? Finish your WIP. Be motivated by how hot the market is, get your work done...and take the plunge to find an agent. Be committed to this. If your work is strong and your timing is right...well, terrific things are bound to happen.

Best of luck!
 

dragonjax

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BiggerBoat said:
I'm seeing more and more of these things in the bookstore, all with virtually the same cover (sexy gal with her back to the camera, dressed in a black latex dress--gee...those things must be comfortable).

PS: My cover is pretty close to what you described. ;) Of course, I had no say on the cover -- if it were up to me, I would have had a close up of a devil's pitchfork with a G-string dangling off one of the tines. :D
 

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First of all, uber-cool one with an actual published novel! Worship!

Second, I sure hope it isn't going to implode because if it does I'll shoot myself for waiting so long to write this novel.
 

dragonjax

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Leggs said:
First of all, uber-cool one with an actual published novel! Worship!

Aw, Leggs -- smooches! :kiss: Many thanks!

Leggs said:
Second, I sure hope it isn't going to implode because if it does I'll shoot myself for waiting so long to write this novel.

So...don't wait.

Seriously.

It took me 17 years to write my first novel (to this day, unpublished...although I just finished revising it as YA urban fantasy, but we're not going there for now). During that time, my husband practically begged me to put down the fantasy and write something funny and chick-litty (although neither of us knew that term at the time). I didn't listen. I was too in love with The First Fantasy Story. By the time I finally wrote that second book (in only five months...but about ten years too late), the chick-lit market had started closing its doors. The bulk of the rejections I got from agents with that second book was "not differentiated enough." I have no doubt that if I had written it ten years sooner -- and I could have (although who knows? My writing now is far stronger than it was then), it would have been published.

Don't wait. Write. Write every day, even if it's just a paragraph.

The best advice I ever received is from Joe Konrath, who writes the Jack Daniels Mystery series about a Chicago cop. He said (to paraphrase) that if you want writing to be your business, you need to treat it like a business. So study the market. Watch the trends. Read in the genre you want to write. Learn the formulas. Know the rules so that you can break them.

You can do it. I absolutely believe it.

But only you can write the story you're meant to write.

I wish you all the best.

((Okay, stepping off my soapbox -- sorry!))
 

rugcat

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The market is indeed hot right now, so get that book finished!

I think paranormal romance is getting oversaturated - there are an awful lot of them out there, and although most are well-written, there is a certain sameness about them. However much each new author tries to carve out a fresh approach, a major part of the plot is always going to be the trials of dating a vampire. Or werewolf. Or demon. Or whatever. And there just can't be that many supernatural creatures left who want relationships.

As a sub-genre, I think urban fantasy has real legs, though. It has more potential for invention and fewer conventions. Neil Gaimon, Charles De Lint, and Jim Butcher are about as different as can be, but they all could be classified as urban fantasy. It may cool off, but I think it's going to be a popular genre for quite a while. Or at least as long as good new writers keep emerging.
 

dragonjax

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rugcat said:
As a sub-genre, I think urban fantasy has real legs, though. It has more potential for invention and fewer conventions. Neil Gaimon, Charles De Lint, and Jim Butcher are about as different as can be, but they all could be classified as urban fantasy.

I love, love, love Neil. I'm in serious deep like with Jim. And I haven't read Charles yet.

Don't forget Chris Moore!

I agree with you about urban fantasy. I actually thought that my book WAS an urban fantasy. (What the hell do I know? Call it "broccoli" if you want.) But I'll be very, very happy if I can get a crossover readership.
 

clara bow

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The market always cycles. I would continue your work; the only thing that might change is the genre you submit it as!

Also, I think paranormal isn't just about a relationship with vampires, werewolves, and demons. That's just what happened to sell first. Though I'm no expert, I predict a new wave with whole different storylines. Paranormal seems to be very broadly defined in the romance genre.
 

BiggerBoat

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dragonjax said:
So...best advice? Finish your WIP. Be motivated by how hot the market is, get your work done...and take the plunge to find an agent. Be committed to this. If your work is strong and your timing is right...well, terrific things are bound to happen.

Thanks for the encouraging words. I'm certainly invested in the book, but I lament my timing ;)

Congrats on your success!
 

BiggerBoat

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rugcat said:
As a sub-genre, I think urban fantasy has real legs, though. It has more potential for invention and fewer conventions. Neil Gaimon, Charles De Lint, and Jim Butcher are about as different as can be, but they all could be classified as urban fantasy. It may cool off, but I think it's going to be a popular genre for quite a while. Or at least as long as good new writers keep emerging.

Interesting thoughts. I agree. Urban fantasy has been around for a while. What seems to be a hot right now is what is being defined as the "paranormal romance". There's like, what, maybe 4 or 5 popular series right now with a female werewolf as the protag? My concern would be, I suppose, that an eventual backlash (if one happened) might filter down into other segments of urban fantasy. The publishers even seem to be going out of their way to tie existing series into the "look" (for example, check out the cover for "Firestorm", the latest in Rachel Cain's weather warden series ... sexy gal, check ... black latex dress, check).

Anyway, I agree that something well-written and fresh can break into even the coldest genre. It'll be intersting to see how things pan out. Maybe it will bring some new readers into fantasy in general.
 
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My-Immortal

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Note to self: Change female character's outfit to something sexy, black, and tight....

;)

Nah, I'll just leave her the way she is.
 

triceretops

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I've also heard that paranormal and urban fantasy is blistering hot right now. My agent has my latest attempt at urban fantasy and I hope it gets out in circulation before any curtains fall. There are so many movies and T.V. shows based on these genres that its popularity is also evident in the visual media. I wonder if Charmed and Buffy and Angel had anything to do with this rise in interest. I've always loved the storylines of the contemporary, urban, and paranormal fantasies:

Splash
Bedazzled
Angels in the Outfield
Little Nicky
Damn Yankees
Date with an Angel
Maniquin (sp)
Wierd Science

There are so many more I can't even remember them. I just know that they are a popular staple and aren't likely to go away for awhile.

Tri
 

Cathy C

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I don't think it's going to be bottoming out in the near future (read that to mean publication dates through 2008). Of course, since editors are presently BUYING for 2008, that doesn't mean much... :ROFL:

But really, there's still plenty of room for expansion. New worlds and realities take people away from the ordinary, icky world we live in now because (and this is important!) everything gets solved! At the end of the book, the world is a better place than when it started.

And especially in the romance genre, there's the "loss of control," romantically in a very REAL sense (because the protagonists are otherworldly), that bumps up the stakes for the enevitable "happily ever after."

As more and more paranormals hit the best sellers lists and there are a BUNCH OF THEM doing so right now, the publishers are going to play the numbers as long as possible. They're even dredging up old stories with new plots (like the brand new "Dark Shadows" novels--based on the gothic vamp series from the 60s--being pubbed by Tor.)

I don't see any problem with continuing to submit new, well built alternate realities for at least the next three or four years (so for publication through 2010). Our editor is already talking to us about a 2009 contract.

JMHO, of course.
 

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What seems to be a hot right now is what is being defined as the "paranormal romance".

A friend of mine calls them "bloodsucker cozies".

Which is weird since they're not usually cozy at all.
 

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That *is* weird, because a cozy is a subgenre of mystery. It's the Miss Marple-type mystery, in which the setting is non-threatening, the murder an unusual event for the community, the detective is in little or no physical peril, and the crime is solved by rational deduction. At least, those are the general descriptors.

I've heard those books called "vampire shaggers."
 

Alan Yee

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Yes, I've been hearing that urban fantasy is hot right now. My novel I'm working on is a dark, urban fantasy starring bisexual demons, the humans they love/reproduce with, a lustful demon father who kidnaps his (grown) son's friend, and the friend's wife, who is part human and part demon and has witch powers that she's trying to get a better hold on.

For some strange reason it reminds me of Charmed and Buffy, though it's very different.
 

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It's hot because people like Cathy and Jackie are writing really solid titles, and aren't alone.

If, out of the blue, a bunch of really awesome, well-written epic fantasy showed up, we'd hear about the epic renaissance.

I would advise against worrying about markets. This is not something you can control. All you can control is the good writing. If you think you can write a better urban fantasy than you can any other kind, then that's what you should write.

Three authors in one thread. Exciting.

(Mine's one of those out in 2008... Not urban, though mine's just a different kind of edgy.)

Edit: Wait, is that four? Man, us scifi/fant writers tend to be on the internet, no?)
 

Anthony Ravenscroft

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For more than 75 years, the pulp genres have been accused of "just doing the same stuff over & over."

For those most part, there's been some truth to that. When the "Tarzan" property was hot, everyone wrote jungle adventures. When ERB created Barsoom, suddenly everyone was ripping off The Time Machine & putting those cultures on other planets in the Solar System for no good scientific basis.

A new thing develops spontaneously, often because the creator's a bit too dense to grasp the obvious. (Hence cyberpunk, punk rock, chick lit, grunge music, etc.) Then it catches on a bit, & buzz develops. After that, there's a huge effort to cash in on the "new thing" that results in a bunch of garbage being foisted on the public. (See previous list.) When the dust clears & the big companies won't touch it any more, there's a few of those dense people still doing what they did before it became The Next Big Thing, & the audience that liked the original product seek them out.

Writers oughtn't write for the "big thing" of the moment, because it'll probably be ridiculed in 2-3 years, just like a garage band should be doing more than learning this week's Top 40 playlist if they want to ever do more than regurgitate ephemera.

Get a good story & tell it entertainingly. If it's unpopular right now, it might be the Big Thing in two years' time, or the market might be so dead that you'll get sales as "retro."
 

badducky

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Maybe your point works in models with faster turnaround, but the thing is, most of those books that are part of the final days of the "trend" were written at the beginning of the trend, and usually before it.

Many authors didn't even know they were part of this trend at all.

Ask Jackie about that factoid.

The thing that makes those -- as you describe them -- dense authors succeed is simply that they were the ones who kept writing great stuff that an audience kept reading. That's just adam smith's invisible hand picking the authors who will get to have long careers and them that don't.

Books just don't have the turnaround time for a company to really try to build into a fad. Instead, they buy what was already written. Because books take years to write, edit, rewrite, sell, polish, market, print, bind, market, distribute...

Even under the best, and most miraculous of circumstances, you're looking at about two years between original idea and promotional copies. That puts you on the back end of any trend that shows up even if you get started at the beginning of the trend.

It's easy to blame trends on the writers and companies churning out garbage as part of a trend. It's not true.

Speaking of trends of the future, I should have some release dates for all you nice people in another couple weeks. If you budding authors want to ride a trend of the future, find out a little more about me and my strange little books.
 

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I would just like to make a suggestion that people who write fantasy usually read it too. What better place to invest in than purchasing some of our own AW talent here. Cathy and Jackie's books come to mind for the fantasy genres. It shows great support and can be quite a learning experience as to what's just recently sold. And of course, the entertainment value goes without saying.

Tri
 

Cathy C

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badducky said:
Even under the best, and most miraculous of circumstances, you're looking at about two years between original idea and promotional copies.

I don't agree, except possibly with debut authors (and, of course, depending on how long it takes the author to finish a book.) Most of the time with working novelists, it's about 15 months from conception to publication. I just finished our September 07 title and turned it in today. The required submission date was September 1st. The contract for said submission arrived in April. Two years is a really long time in publishing. Most lines are working about 9 months to a year in advance of acceptances.

(PS--thanks for the plug, Tri! Jackie's book is AW-ESOME! All AWers should buy it!)
 

Anthony Ravenscroft

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I'm hardly the one "blaming" writers for selling what's being bought. Then again, most of my writing hasn't been of the Ahtistic sort because I'd rather be rich than respected.

But the fact is that publishers are also mercenary -- which kinda makes sense when running a business rather than a public service agency. So, when they're itching to jump on a trend, they tell their readers (the ones chained to desks, not the ones with cash to spend) to flag everything that a half-blind ox might conceivably confuse with the Hot Topic.

Soon enough, that house's category is packed.

Now, if they've been picky -- & some lines are sharp that way -- they've discarded the poor fits, shaved some rough corners off the near-misses, & maybe even asked for a few quick rewrites.

Then again, there are lines that figure they're just peaches with "good enough," & all they gotta do is slap a title & some cover art on it, & the rubes'll pony up pronto. Look at all the "chick lit" titles that don't fit the early writing in the niche, yet the titles are in ribbony fonts, there's various paperdoll bodies (or body parts), & the whole thing's slathered in pastels that, if they exist in Nature, usually offer an opportunity to cull failed genetic lines.

When readers get burned, they damn the entire niche with memories of the latter, not the on-target former.

I've got a rant about mystery stories. In past decades, it's become very tough to find a writer who's good at writing mysteries that don't involve human death, particularly murder. Now, I've got nothing at all against a well-played croaking-off, but it strikes me as a lazy literary gimmick that offsets the need to actually write decently. The "fake cozies" seem to have a murder or three a week in a town of 800 people, & none of the residents thinks, "Hmm, maybe I oughta move to Haiti where my chances of survival are better."

In the past five years, we've now seen where every-other mystery story involves serial killers. If there were one-tenth the serial murderers in the Real World, we could finally set aside fears of overpopulation, because it's being taken care of. Again, solid writing is replaced with a sensationalist gimmick.

I simply don't think it'll "implode." It'll simply become so pedestrian that fewer professionals will toss it in to move a plot along, & they'll either start writing again or come up with some other bright&shiny object for the new Big Thing gimmick.

Plus ca change.
 

Cathy C

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In past decades, it's become very tough to find a writer who's good at writing mysteries that don't involve human death, particularly murder.

As opposed to, say, the Black Widower or Union Club shorts that Isaac Asimov put out in the late 60s/early 70s? I have the whole set. I enjoy a good intellectual mystery, but have noticed it's difficult to sustain the drama through a novel. Rex Stout often managed it in the Nero Wolfe mysteries, but there aren't many others who accomplished it--at least well.

I tried to get through the "Ladies No. 1 Detective Agency" which often were intellectual puzzles, but they left me cold and bored.

But it might be a good thing for some here to try. Who knows? You might START the next trend! :)
 

ChaosTitan

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Anthony Ravenscroft said:
I've got a rant about mystery stories. In past decades, it's become very tough to find a writer who's good at writing mysteries that don't involve human death, particularly murder.

Okay, so someone isn't murdered. What becomes the central mystery of the story? Who stole Great-Aunt Edna's antique hat pin collection?

When someone is murdered, we as human beings tend to have an overwhelming need to find who did it and to punish them. Moreso than with any other crime (with the possible exception of rape). Murder is messy and it's negative, but it brings an emotional edge to it that other crimes don't.

Again, if it came down to Great-Aunt Edna's hatpins, or someone's beloved sister being murdered, I'd rather read about the latter.

Anthony Ravenscroft said:
In the past five years, we've now seen where every-other mystery story involves serial killers. If there were one-tenth the serial murderers in the Real World, we could finally set aside fears of overpopulation, because it's being taken care of. Again, solid writing is replaced with a sensationalist gimmick.

I used to use this argument when talking about the proliferation of crime shows on TV. If you used shows like Law & Order and CSI to gage crime rates in this country, it would be astronomical. But it's fiction. Just like those mystery novels are fiction. They aren't meant to reflect real crime rates or real crimes. If they were, then once in a while the hero would fail and the mystery wouldn't be solved.
 
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