I don't know how the general zeitgeist works. It's a mysterious thing. I do know that I sold my book in 2010, and Steampunk was definitely out there but not nearly as popular as it became in 2011. I think the reason you see agents getting a lot of Steampunk now is that it, for whatever reason, has become popular in the general culture (and why it has, well there's a lot of speculation around that . . . but no definite answers). People are thinking, "Hey that's a cool idea" and going with it. It doesn't mean they are necessarily jumping on trends (though I am sure some are), but rather that they hadn't thought of Steampunk before and they find they rather like it.
That sounds pretty logical, like an ideavirus. xd I actually had a bit of that with my old half-written dystopia. I ran out of steam and then I heard the market was completely saturated, so everything added up and sort of fizzled out. Then I heard about YA Sci-Fi and thought, wow, I haven't read any YA Sci-Fi books before [it was some time ago]. It sparked an idea for a huge revision, I changed the setting, the time period, and it is now a sort of a Sci-Fi thriller. And it's a better story that way. Even though I had to cut out a lot, it's almost like writing a totally new book, but I like it more now.
It's coincidence for me, too. I started writing something last April Fool's Day when we were Steampunk'd here, and the characters wouldn't leave me alone until I finished their story. I've gone through a round of edits with my agent, and am waiting to see what she thinks of them, so not yet on submission. However, I've seen several mentions of Steampunk as something being actively sought.
I even remember an old thread where you said it, too--I think it was a few months ago. About steampunk. And maybe gaslamp fantasy, or "softer science" steampunk will also rise, since after Cassandra Clare's series there seems to be more new releases, whereas before there was Incarceron and... I don't remember anything else, though there had to be.
While I do agree, of course, that it's impossible to try and *plan* on catching trends, I understand the OP's hesitation at launching into a huge project if the market has already fizzled.
It seems a just-shrivelled market is the worst situation for a sale. A market that's not too popular might flare up (like, well, steampunk), a steady market might have a lot of authors but it can also afford a bit of a risk related to the new ones, but a market that has already passed its peak and done so a short time ago isn't likely to rise up again soon.
For me personally it takes a lot of time to come up with that next idea I am willing to devote months to to write.
*bangs head against wall*
I have ideas. Tons of ideas. Right now I have plans for about three different YA urban fantasy series, one ghost/paranormal series, four stand alone suspense/contemporaries, a fantasy series, a Sci-Fi series... but I'll need to live forever to write them, because it takes me a long time to get from start to finish. If I were able to go from idea to submission in, say, 2 or 3 months, I'd totally do trend hopping.
