The Fantasy market is down??

The Scribbler · Nov 13, 2005

Hello everbody. I have been querying agents for the last month or so on my new Fantasy novel. I have gotten several replies that say that the Fantasy novels are not marketable right now so they pass onmy project. I thought the market was at an all time high right now what with the success of the LOTR movies and Harry Potter. I just wondered what everyone else thought about this.

victoriastrauss · Nov 13, 2005

I'm guessing that either those agents don't sell a lot of fantasy, or else they don't want to say straight out, "Your project didn't interest me."

Fantasy (and science fiction) is a small segment of the total book market, but it's a pretty healthy one. Fantasy novels are no less marketable now than they've ever been (YA fantasy is actually one of the hotter markets right now).

- Victoria

The Scribbler · Nov 14, 2005

I only query agents that are listed in fantasy, and they did not seem to have any problem with telling me they were not interested in my book. I just thought it was an odd comment that they also added that the Fantasy Market was down. It was several agencies that said this some of which I was surprised by considering their noted reputations.

dragonjax · Nov 14, 2005

Just because an agent is listed as representing fantasy doesn't mean that the agent *actively* places it with publishers. Check out agent sales in Publishers Marketplace and in LOCUS if you want a real look at which agent is selling what sort of fantasy novel to which editor at which publisher. Find agents who represent works similar to yours, and query them. Good luck!

waylander · Nov 14, 2005

In my recent extensive querying of agents for my fantasy novel I've had a couple of people say they're finding the market tight, but plenty of others have shown interest in it. When they've rejected it the market has not been a factor.

The Scribbler · Nov 14, 2005

If it was just one agent I would have blown it off, but its been 4 so far that have made that comment. I just thought it odd. I know the Fantasy market is extremely competitive, but I would never consider it down. I think the problem is that some publishers get so locked into what could be perceived as formula fantasy that they dont want to try anything new. I guess it is all about finding the right niche.

victoriastrauss · Nov 14, 2005

The Scribbler said:
If it was just one agent I would have blown it off, but its been 4 so far that have made that comment.

Who are they? I'm curious now.

- Victoria

The Scribbler · Nov 14, 2005

I will have to go back and check, but the one that sticks in my head is Writer's House

waylander · Nov 14, 2005

Jack Byrne and Richard Henshaw

The Scribbler · Nov 14, 2005

Richard Henshaw was another. Jack Byrne said that he had a full clinet list and was not looking to take on anyone new.

The other two were The Rebecca Pratt Literary Group and Dystal & Goderich Literary Management

Minister · Nov 15, 2005

If I remember correctly, if the market is adjusted for the Harry Potter books and one or two other big-name writer's series, the fantasy market has been trending downward for a little while now. Overall sales are strong, but if those few series are discounted, sales suddenly look a lot weaker. It's a competitive market that (again, outside of HP) doesn't seem to be attracting many new readers. So it's a tough market for new or relatively unrecognized writers to break into.

zornhau · Nov 21, 2005

If it's down, it will go up

On a recent trip to toyshops, I was convinced that we'll see a fantasy boom in the next few years. However, I think it will be a million miles from the "The Quest of the Unicorn Princess and the Downtrodden Stable Boy".

I wrote it up here:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/zornhau/54053.html

dragonjax · Nov 21, 2005

It ain't down

If an agent says the fantasy market is down, feel free to mention to that agent this article in USA TODAY.

Jamesaritchie · Nov 21, 2005

dragonjax said:
If an agent says the fantasy market is down, feel free to mention to that agent this article in USA TODAY.

Good article, but from what I hear, sales of new fantasy novels are trending downward, and it's precisely because of the huge jump in the last five years. The Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings surge had the predicted results. Sales went way up, and publishers did their usual thing of buying more and more fantasy novels, most of which have been poorly written.

Nothing stays at the peak. Downward is the only way the trend for new fantasy novels could go after the Potter/LOTR peak.

This doesn't mean you can't sell a good fantasy novel now, you can. The market is still pretty good. But it's not as good as it was a year or two ago, and it is tightening up. A good thing, really.

dragonjax · Nov 21, 2005

Excellent points.

And I agree: even if the competition is higher, if it brings about a higher standard of fantasy on the bookshelves, then it's a good thing.

Sharon Mock · Nov 21, 2005

From what I've been told, the fantasy market -- and especially the market for "traditional" quest fantasy -- is not crashing, but is not as hot as it might have been several years ago. (Side question: is thirty years long enough to use the word "traditional"? Somehow I don't think so...)

Two major factors seem to be coming into play here. First, pricing pressures are discouraging the publication of Big Fat Books (where Big Fat = bigger than 120,000 words), and quest fantasies tend to run long. Second, there are a lot of established authors mid-series right now, and there are only so many quest fantasy series a single publishing house can release.

The demand for "blockbuster" books -- of whatever subgenre -- is still, and is always, high. There's also still demand for odd, quirky, original stuff (I suspect because that's what editors like to read). But there aren't nearly as many spaces left for a traditional fantasy manuscript to fill these days as there used to be.

CaitlinK18 · Nov 21, 2005

It also has to do (IMO) with the subgenre of fantasy you write in. Urban and contemporary fantasy is hot, as is dark fantasy with horror elements. I've been seeing less and less of the elves-and-magic style stuff in bookstores (new stuff, that is, from new authors.) On the other hand, I've see a lot of new authors popping out contemporary or cross-genre fantasy stories. A lot of them aren't good, but some are. The sad fact is, that fantasy and science fiction seem to attract sub-par writing. People are reluctant to spend $19.95 on a hardback from some guy they never heard of that may or may not suck.

This is true in all genres, not just fantasy, but sadly we have a reputation for crap writing and ridiculous plots, so we bear the brunt of people's reluctance to take chances with what they read.

Jamesaritchie · Nov 21, 2005

price

CaitlinK18 said:
It People are reluctant to spend $19.95 on a hardback from some guy they never heard of that may or may not suck.

.

I wish I could find hardcovers for $19.95. Most of the ones I buy are in the $25-30 range. Some cost even more.

victoriastrauss · Nov 21, 2005

Jamesaritchie said:
Good article, but from what I hear, sales of new fantasy novels are trending downward, and it's precisely because of the huge jump in the last five years. The Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings surge had the predicted results. Sales went way up, and publishers did their usual thing of buying more and more fantasy novels, most of which have been poorly written.

This doesn't match my observations at all (especially the blanket observation about quality).

The Potter books--and the YA fantasy buying spree they've triggered, which may well have reached its peak--shouldn't really be part of a discussion of the market for adult fantasy, since they're considered part of the children's market. The two are separate. The Potter books have had a huge impact on the children's market, but I don't believe they've had any impact on the adult market.

LOTR was selling better than much new fantasy long before the films came out. It's not my impression that whatever Tolkien sales surge the films triggered had any impact on buying in the adult fantasy market as a whole.

- Victoria

DaveKuzminski · Nov 21, 2005

I believe Publishers Lunch had something contrary to state about fantasy today. I don't have that issue available, but it was to the effect that epic serial fantasy was going strong at present. Of course, that's good news to me since I have a story that's both fantasy and science fiction, though it's mostly fantasy and it's a serial and it's epic in scope. AND the first book of it is already out.

MacAllister · Nov 22, 2005

Dave beat me to it...

I just ran across the same article Dave is talking about, via Miss Snark:

Genre fiction of all kinds has flourished in recent years, and fantasy has been particularly strong--helped by Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but much deeper, too, evidenced most recently by strong anticipation and sales for new books by George R.R. Martin, Robert Jordan, and Christopher Paolini.

BN buyer James Killen tells USA Today, "Fantasy makes up roughly half the sales in the science-fiction/fantasy section of Barnes & Noble, and the lion's share of that is 'epic' or 'heroic' fantasy - adventures of huge scale told over numerous volumes. On average, we've seen annual increases over the last few years in the area of 10% to 15%." And Borders'sci-fi and fantasy buyer Micha Hershman adds, "We have seen a double-digit increase in sales this year over the same period last year."
USA Today

MadScientistMatt · Nov 22, 2005

victoriastrauss said:
The Potter books--and the YA fantasy buying spree they've triggered, which may well have reached its peak--shouldn't really be part of a discussion of the market for adult fantasy, since they're considered part of the children's market. The two are separate. The Potter books have had a huge impact on the children's market, but I don't believe they've had any impact on the adult market.

I'm not sure - how many grown-ups bought Harry Potter books for themselves instead of the kids?

zornhau · Nov 22, 2005

My hope is that kids who read HP now will return to fantasy when they're older (and buy my hypothetical books).

Pencilone · Nov 22, 2005

What Zornhau said and add also the adults that never read a fantasy before the Harry Potter event, and now read whatever fantasy books they get their hands on.

One does not have to be a child to enjoy Phillip Pullman for instance. I believe fantasy also makes us more tollerant to the 'unusual' and the 'different' (especially now when so many people have their minds twisted by religion).

brinkett · Nov 22, 2005

BN buyer James Killen tells USA Today, "Fantasy makes up roughly half the sales in the science-fiction/fantasy section of Barnes & Noble

Why is this remarkable? Was there a time when science fiction consistently outsold fantasy?

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