The Fantasy market is down??

[The Scribbler]

Hello everbody. I have been querying agents for the last month or so on my new Fantasy novel. I have gotten several replies that say that the Fantasy novels are not marketable right now so they pass onmy project. I thought the market was at an all time high right now what with the success of the LOTR movies and Harry Potter. I just wondered what everyone else thought about this.

[victoriastrauss]

I'm guessing that either those agents don't sell a lot of fantasy, or else they don't want to say straight out, "Your project didn't interest me."

Fantasy (and science fiction) is a small segment of the total book market, but it's a pretty healthy one. Fantasy novels are no less marketable now than they've ever been (YA fantasy is actually one of the hotter markets right now).

- Victoria

[The Scribbler]

I only query agents that are listed in fantasy, and they did not seem to have any problem with telling me they were not interested in my book. I just thought it was an odd comment that they also added that the Fantasy Market was down. It was several agencies that said this some of which I was surprised by considering their noted reputations.

[dragonjax]

Just because an agent is listed as representing fantasy doesn't mean that the agent *actively* places it with publishers. Check out agent sales in Publishers Marketplace and in LOCUS if you want a real look at which agent is selling what sort of fantasy novel to which editor at which publisher. Find agents who represent works similar to yours, and query them. Good luck!

[waylander]

In my recent extensive querying of agents for my fantasy novel I've had a couple of people say they're finding the market tight, but plenty of others have shown interest in it. When they've rejected it the market has not been a factor.

[The Scribbler]

If it was just one agent I would have blown it off, but its been 4 so far that have made that comment. I just thought it odd. I know the Fantasy market is extremely competitive, but I would never consider it down. I think the problem is that some publishers get so locked into what could be perceived as formula fantasy that they dont want to try anything new. I guess it is all about finding the right niche.

[victoriastrauss]

If it was just one agent I would have blown it off, but its been 4 so far that have made that comment.Who are they? I'm curious now.

- Victoria

[The Scribbler]

I will have to go back and check, but the one that sticks in my head is Writer's House

[waylander]

Jack Byrne and Richard Henshaw

[The Scribbler]

Richard Henshaw was another. Jack Byrne said that he had a full clinet list and was not looking to take on anyone new.

The other two were The Rebecca Pratt Literary Group and Dystal & Goderich Literary Management

[Minister]

If I remember correctly, if the market is adjusted for the Harry Potter books and one or two other big-name writer's series, the fantasy market has been trending downward for a little while now. Overall sales are strong, but if those few series are discounted, sales suddenly look a lot weaker. It's a competitive market that (again, outside of HP) doesn't seem to be attracting many new readers. So it's a tough market for new or relatively unrecognized writers to break into.

[zornhau]

On a recent trip to toyshops, I was convinced that we'll see a fantasy boom in the next few years. However, I think it will be a million miles from the "The Quest of the Unicorn Princess and the Downtrodden Stable Boy".

I wrote it up here:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/zornhau/54053.html

[dragonjax]

If an agent says the fantasy market is down, feel free to mention to that agent this article (http://www.usatoday.com/life/books/news/2005-11-20-fantasy-genre_x.htm) in USA TODAY.

[Jamesaritchie]

If an agent says the fantasy market is down, feel free to mention to that agent this article (http://www.usatoday.com/life/books/news/2005-11-20-fantasy-genre_x.htm) in USA TODAY.

Good article, but from what I hear, sales of new fantasy novels are trending downward, and it's precisely because of the huge jump in the last five years. The Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings surge had the predicted results. Sales went way up, and publishers did their usual thing of buying more and more fantasy novels, most of which have been poorly written.

Nothing stays at the peak. Downward is the only way the trend for new fantasy novels could go after the Potter/LOTR peak.

This doesn't mean you can't sell a good fantasy novel now, you can. The market is still pretty good. But it's not as good as it was a year or two ago, and it is tightening up. A good thing, really.

[dragonjax]

Excellent points.

And I agree: even if the competition is higher, if it brings about a higher standard of fantasy on the bookshelves, then it's a good thing.

[Sharon Mock]

From what I've been told, the fantasy market -- and especially the market for "traditional" quest fantasy -- is not crashing, but is not as hot as it might have been several years ago. (Side question: is thirty years long enough to use the word "traditional"? Somehow I don't think so...)

Two major factors seem to be coming into play here. First, pricing pressures are discouraging the publication of Big Fat Books (where Big Fat = bigger than 120,000 words), and quest fantasies tend to run long. Second, there are a lot of established authors mid-series right now, and there are only so many quest fantasy series a single publishing house can release.

The demand for "blockbuster" books -- of whatever subgenre -- is still, and is always, high. There's also still demand for odd, quirky, original stuff (I suspect because that's what editors like to read). But there aren't nearly as many spaces left for a traditional fantasy manuscript to fill these days as there used to be.

[CaitlinK18]

It also has to do (IMO) with the subgenre of fantasy you write in. Urban and contemporary fantasy is hot, as is dark fantasy with horror elements. I've been seeing less and less of the elves-and-magic style stuff in bookstores (new stuff, that is, from new authors.) On the other hand, I've see a lot of new authors popping out contemporary or cross-genre fantasy stories. A lot of them aren't good, but some are. The sad fact is, that fantasy and science fiction seem to attract sub-par writing. People are reluctant to spend $19.95 on a hardback from some guy they never heard of that may or may not suck.

This is true in all genres, not just fantasy, but sadly we have a reputation for crap writing and ridiculous plots, so we bear the brunt of people's reluctance to take chances with what they read.

[Jamesaritchie]

It People are reluctant to spend $19.95 on a hardback from some guy they never heard of that may or may not suck.

.

I wish I could find hardcovers for $19.95. Most of the ones I buy are in the $25-30 range. Some cost even more.

[victoriastrauss]

Good article, but from what I hear, sales of new fantasy novels are trending downward, and it's precisely because of the huge jump in the last five years. The Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings surge had the predicted results. Sales went way up, and publishers did their usual thing of buying more and more fantasy novels, most of which have been poorly written.This doesn't match my observations at all (especially the blanket observation about quality).

The Potter books--and the YA fantasy buying spree they've triggered, which may well have reached its peak--shouldn't really be part of a discussion of the market for adult fantasy, since they're considered part of the children's market. The two are separate. The Potter books have had a huge impact on the children's market, but I don't believe they've had any impact on the adult market.

LOTR was selling better than much new fantasy long before the films came out. It's not my impression that whatever Tolkien sales surge the films triggered had any impact on buying in the adult fantasy market as a whole.

- Victoria

[DaveKuzminski]

I believe Publishers Lunch had something contrary to state about fantasy today. I don't have that issue available, but it was to the effect that epic serial fantasy was going strong at present. Of course, that's good news to me since I have a story that's both fantasy and science fiction, though it's mostly fantasy and it's a serial and it's epic in scope. AND the first book of it is already out. :)

[MacAllister]

I just ran across the same article (http://publishersmarketplace.com/) Dave is talking about, via Miss Snark (http://misssnark.blogspot.com/2005/11/good-news-for-dragon-riders-amongst-us.html):
Genre fiction of all kinds has flourished in recent years, and fantasy has been particularly strong--helped by Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings, but much deeper, too, evidenced most recently by strong anticipation and sales for new books by George R.R. Martin, Robert Jordan, and Christopher Paolini.

BN buyer James Killen tells USA Today, "Fantasy makes up roughly half the sales in the science-fiction/fantasy section of Barnes & Noble, and the lion's share of that is 'epic' or 'heroic' fantasy - adventures of huge scale told over numerous volumes. On average, we've seen annual increases over the last few years in the area of 10% to 15%." And Borders'sci-fi and fantasy buyer Micha Hershman adds, "We have seen a double-digit increase in sales this year over the same period last year."
USA Today

[MadScientistMatt]

The Potter books--and the YA fantasy buying spree they've triggered, which may well have reached its peak--shouldn't really be part of a discussion of the market for adult fantasy, since they're considered part of the children's market. The two are separate. The Potter books have had a huge impact on the children's market, but I don't believe they've had any impact on the adult market.

I'm not sure - how many grown-ups bought Harry Potter books for themselves instead of the kids? :)

[zornhau]

My hope is that kids who read HP now will return to fantasy when they're older (and buy my hypothetical books).

[Pencilone]

What Zornhau said and add also the adults that never read a fantasy before the Harry Potter event, and now read whatever fantasy books they get their hands on.

One does not have to be a child to enjoy Phillip Pullman for instance. I believe fantasy also makes us more tollerant to the 'unusual' and the 'different' (especially now when so many people have their minds twisted by religion).

[brinkett]

BN buyer James Killen tells USA Today, "Fantasy makes up roughly half the sales in the science-fiction/fantasy section of Barnes & Noble

Why is this remarkable? Was there a time when science fiction consistently outsold fantasy?

[badducky]

I would also be curious to know if the Sci-fi/fantasy market is as equally divided as the title of the genre suggests.

Are there more sci-fi books in print? More fantasy?

How does someone calculate bookshelf space, and is it in any attempt to maintain some kind of cohesive balance between the two styles?

I'm actually worried that many readers of the fantasy genre might have difficulty separating reality from fantasy. (Especially here in Bible Belt, Texas where we literally have more churches than we do restaurants... I actually drive past not one, not two... but THREE Tongan Missionary Churches everyday, and a Greek Orthodox Church, and a SaeBit (?) Church and a... well, you get the idea, and it's a ten minute drive).

You see, in my lovely little burgh, part of the initial conversation between men and women in the singles scene is the "Theory of Evolution". (Literally:"Hey, so what do you think about all this Intelligent Design stuff? It's all over the news.")

I'm worried that all the increased readers of fantasy will be unable to differentiate literal from figurative, and start running around with magic wands and enchanted swords.

I recently heard about a guy who had his gun blessed by his minister for hunting season, and this genuinely worries me.

[DaveKuzminski]

Why's that, Badducky? You want to be shot by mistake with an unblessed gun? ;)

[badducky]

I'm of the opinion that a blessed gun is far more likely to confuse me for a bear, actually...

However, guns are a far more humane way to die than people with low reality filters chasing after me with magic wands in robes.

I should mention that I'm Roman Catholic, and attend mass every Sunday. I'm all for religion in general, because it keeps people from stealing my groovy stuff. Even religions that aren't mine are great as long as they leave me alone.

I do have a problem with fly-by-night faiths that prey on people's ignorance. One minister apparently has the only road to God... We have WAY too many of those around here.

And these kind of faithful followers probably shouldn't be reading George RR Martin and should be reading Asimov and Heinlein.

I'd rather they electrocuted themselves trying to build a robot, instead of attempting to take over the world with intrigue and magic.
DOWN WITH THE FANTASY MARKET!!!

:Lecture: :Wha: :Huh: :Soapbox:

[victoriastrauss]

I'm not sure - how many grown-ups bought Harry Potter books for themselves instead of the kids? :)Plenty, I think. But I wish I had a dollar for everyone who has said to me, after enthusing about the latest Harry Potter, "But I don't normally read that kind of stuff." I'd agree that kids who read Rowling may be more open to fantasy as adults, but I don't think I've spoken to any adult who has become a fantasy reader as a result of reading their kids' Harry Potter books.

Somewhere on some other thread here, someone said that mega-successful writers like Rowling and Stephen King are their own genre. I think that's an astute observation.

- Victoria

[zornhau]

Don't worry Badducky!
Magic doesn't actually work, and if it did, then the big spells would be more dangerous to the practicioner than to the target.
As for swords - they're actually really hard to strike with effectively unless you're properly trained... rant here http://www.livejournal.com/users/zornhau/15684.html

[badducky]

Funny thing about religions that don't dance, don't womanize, and don't drink...


Lots of free time on their hands,

Lots of pent up frustrations.

Give me the good old Catholic Mass, where the Knights of Columbus can'tg et together in groups larger than three without lighting up cigars and passing out whiskey!