The Future Has Happened Already: E-book Sales Overtake Paperback

dgaughran · Apr 14, 2011

The Association of American Publishers (AAP) just released sales figures for the month of February, and I was blown away. E-book sales (year on year) grew over 200%. They now comprise 29.5% of the market. And this is only e-book data from 16 of the biggest publishers reporting versus 84 publishers reporting print data, the real number could be higher.

But the headline news was this: e-books are the top-selling format across all trade categories. More than paperback!

I blogged about this here.

Big news, huh?

rsullivan9597 · Apr 14, 2011

dgaughran said:
The Association of American Publishers (AAP) just released sales figures for the month of February, and I was blown away. E-book sales (year on year) grew over 200%. They now comprise 29.5% of the market. And this is only e-book data from 16 of the biggest publishers reporting versus 84 publishers reporting print data, the real number could be higher.

But the headline news was this: e-books are the top-selling format across all trade categories. More than paperback!

I blogged about this here.

Big news, huh?

Truly amazing...when the 2010 numbers were released I was shocked that they were still just 8% - (I had predicted 12% - 15%) I knew it was more but since only 14 publishers were reporting ebook sales to the AAP I figured this accounted for the small numbers.

Now I see that my numbers were way low - to jump to nearly 30% is just astounding.

dgaughran · Apr 14, 2011

Do you have any idea which are the publishers who drag their feet on reporting this data, whether they account for any real portion of the e-book market, and any rough ball-park figure of how much (if any) e-sales are being under-reported here?

Do the AAP ever break that down (i.e. who didn't report)?

rsullivan9597 · Apr 14, 2011

dgaughran said:
Do you have any idea which are the publishers who drag their feet on reporting this data, whether they account for any real portion of the e-book market, and any rough ball-park figure of how much (if any) e-sales are being under-reported here?

Do the AAP ever break that down (i.e. who didn't report)?

I've never found this information out. But to be honest I think a bigger component of the under reporting is the self-published and small press published numbers which of course are not in the 80-something reporting bodies - With my model its not surprising that I sell MUCH more ebooks then print and self-published authors of course also are majorly skewed to e-publishing if you added their total sales from both their print and ebook it would REALLY shift the number significantly.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

Robin,

I was chatting with Neil from E-book Comments and he was saying the exact same thing. He estimates market share (based on these reported figures) at a minimum of one third.

In the press release the AAP suggested that some of the huge e-book numbers were down to seasonal issues (people receiving Kindles for Christmas purchasing books). But we haven't really unpacked that.

First of all, if it's just a temporary bump, why did all this new Kindle owners buy more books in February than January.

If you like graphs and charts there is some great stuff on Neil's site.

Dave

Jamesaritchie · Apr 15, 2011

You really have to jump through hoops, and count a bunch of really silly numbers, to get that 29%.

It's in the same realm as saying self-published books now make up 70% of the book market. It's true, but completely meaningless.

Real numbers are from 10-12%. Still very, very good, but nowhere near 29%.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

What hoops James? Are you disputing the AAP's own figures?

E-books sales, in terms of volume and dollars, now exceed hardback, paperback, and mass-market. Combined, print still dwarfs e-books, but this is how the AAP separates the data.

What are you disputing exactly?

shaldna · Apr 15, 2011

Jamesaritchie said:
You really have to jump through hoops, and count a bunch of really silly numbers, to get that 29%.

It's in the same realm as saying self-published books now make up 70% of the book market. It's true, but completely meaningless.

Real numbers are from 10-12%. Still very, very good, but nowhere near 29%.

I would be inclined to agree with this based on what I have experienced myself.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

So we are going to go with personal experience and gut feelings over the American Association of Publishers' official figures?

(I mean that with all due respect to both of you.)

kuwisdelu · Apr 15, 2011

After the last few posts, I could do a find and replace in this thread and no one would know it from another Mac vs. PC market share war.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

Ha! Which is which!

I don't have a dog in this fight, yet. But I can't dispute the figures.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

It's also worth noting that, since 2005, e-book sells FELL from January to February. Not this year.

shaldna · Apr 15, 2011

dgaughran said:
So we are going to go with personal experience and gut feelings over the American Association of Publishers' official figures?

(I mean that with all due respect to both of you.)

No actually, i'm going to go with the FACT that not all bookstores and outlets report to AAP, and until they do then any figure they give is a skewed estimate at best.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

I'm aware of that, and you are correct to point it out, but they are the best figures we have.

And we should also remember that weather was awful, and nobody was shipping books to Borders, which would have had a huge effect on print. Whether those sales have gone to other bricks and mortar retailers or switched online is hard to say. And if they have switched online, it's impossible to say if some of those sales 'converted' to e-book sales from print, and whether those figures will hold.

Despite all these question marks, you cannot discount the underlying trends. E-book sales are up from January (they traditionally dip going into February), and have exploded in general.

See the graph below (from E-Book Comments website):

EDIT - picture is to big, you will have to here to see it.

Dave

shaldna · Apr 15, 2011

dgaughran said:
I'm aware of that, and you are correct to point it out, but they are the best figures we have.

True. But they are imcomplete figures that do not come from an even base spread, and cannot be taken as typical sample, and so they are statistically flawed and essentially mean very little in terms of actual percentages or a true indication of what is really going on in publishing.

Instead what we have is a sample of several outlets and stores, which tend to be of a type and so we don't even get to see representations of the whole industry.

Don't get me wrong, book sales going up is good news, no matter the format. But I get twitchy when people use incomplete data as proof.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

shaldna said:
Don't get me wrong, book sales going up is good news, no matter the format. But I get twitchy when people use incomplete data as proof.

Unfortunately, going by these figures at least, overall sales, in terms of dollars, are down. The e-book explosion has not taken up all the drop-off in print.

Maybe if the Borders mess is sorted out one way or the other, maybe when publishers get those backlists up? We'll see. Here's hoping.

AP7 · Apr 15, 2011

Jamesaritchie said:
It's in the same realm as saying self-published books now make up 70% of the book market. It's true, but completely meaningless.

What a silly statement. We can certainly debate what it means, but it's not meaningless...

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

AP7 said:
What a silly statement. We can certainly debate what it means, but it's not meaningless...

Agreed.

Let's say, for example, that we had numbers for all Portland booksellers, and they were saying that there had been an explosion in YA paperbacks. It wouldn't tell us what the rest of the country was doing, but it's not meaningless either.

shaldna · Apr 15, 2011

But it's only meaningful in context. All it tells us that folks in Portland read alot of YA paperbacks. It tells us virtually nothing about the industry in general.

Don't use micro statistics as performance indicators.

ios · Apr 15, 2011

shaldna said:
But it's only meaningful in context. All it tells us that folks in Portland read alot of YA paperbacks. It tells us virtually nothing about the industry in general.

Don't use micro statistics as performance indicators.

I'm interested in this. Do you have a link that indicates they are getting their data from one city only? From what I saw on this specific report, the below is the only information I see on where they get their data from:

"The AAP monthly and year-end sales report represents data provided by 84 U.S. publishing houses representing major commercial, education, professional, scholarly and independents. Data on e-Books comes from 16 houses.The report does not include all book and journal net sales but provides what’s acknowledged as the best industry snapshot currently available."

Thanks,
Jodi

CaoPaux · Apr 15, 2011

She was referring to dgaughran's example.

shadowwalker · Apr 15, 2011

Does it matter, really, if ebook sales are 29% from those reporting, or estimated to be 12% overall - or any other figures? We all know that ebooks are going to be grossly popular for a while (novelty factor which appears with nearly every new product) and then sales will even out, sharing a comfortable berth with both hardcover and paperback, regardless of which of them "comes out ahead". It's not like authors or publishers are required to choose between them.

As long as people don't take this *ebook* trend and start making projections about other areas of publishing based on that, I don't see anything to get uptight about.

ios · Apr 15, 2011

CaoPaux said:
She was referring to dgaughran's example.

All right, but anyway, it brings up a valid point if people think the AAP data is wrong. If there are some other reports out there that dispute the AAP one or have contrasting information, does anyone have the links to share? I'm interested in knowing what it is the best estimate of sales and percentages because to me it's exciting to know what the future holds.

Jodi

shaldna · Apr 15, 2011

ios said:
All right, but anyway, it brings up a valid point if people think the AAP data is wrong.

Not wrong, just incomplete and therefore not a perfect indicator.

As was mentioned above, it only includes 84 publishing houses. That's a great source of information. But that's 84 out of how many hundred?

It might be the best we have, but it's not perfect, and it shouldn't be taken as so.

dgaughran · Apr 15, 2011

shadowwalker said:
Does it matter, really, if ebook sales are 29% from those reporting, or estimated to be 12% overall - or any other figures? We all know that ebooks are going to be grossly popular for a while (novelty factor which appears with nearly every new product) and then sales will even out, sharing a comfortable berth with both hardcover and paperback, regardless of which of them "comes out ahead". It's not like authors or publishers are required to choose between them.

As long as people don't take this *ebook* trend and start making projections about other areas of publishing based on that, I don't see anything to get uptight about.

Well, it does matter. If an established author considers that they can make four times as much royalties (in percentage terms) from e-book rights if they self-pub, the share of the market that e-books have becomes very important. If e-books are now outselling paperbacks, and continuing to grow, there will be a lot of authors doing their sums, calculating how much they could sell without an established trade house behind them, and seeing if it is worth it. When they factor in the huge time-disparity in bringing their product to market, it could start making sense for a lot of people.

Each author's mileage, of course, will vary.

The Future Has Happened Already: E-book Sales Overtake Paperback

dgaughran

rsullivan9597

dgaughran

rsullivan9597

dgaughran

Jamesaritchie

dgaughran

shaldna

The cake is a lie. But still cake.

dgaughran

kuwisdelu

Revolutionize the World

dgaughran

dgaughran

shaldna

The cake is a lie. But still cake.

dgaughran

shaldna

The cake is a lie. But still cake.

dgaughran

AP7

dgaughran

shaldna

The cake is a lie. But still cake.

ios

Weirdo.

CaoPaux

Mostly Harmless

shadowwalker

empty-nester!

ios

Weirdo.

shaldna

The cake is a lie. But still cake.

dgaughran