Hey, honestly, please don't. I'm quite happy to be proven wrong. And I'm not even saying I'm right. Instead of a dogmatic opinion, more a subtle feeling.
A bit like saying "it's going to rain tomorrow", but then in doesn't.
Actually no, it's a bit different, because what you're saying is "I bet they will be defunct because it all happened before", but the example you bring is irrelevant to online fiction publishing. I have an editorial mindset and am routinely doing a LOT of research about markets. Other AWers can probably tell you that I do know my markets. I regularly give advice about these markets, here on AW. I've been in the field for 3.5 years, which is not a lot, so do take my words with grains of salt; but I am also an editor of an online poetry publication, and fwiw, have been approached by a pretty reputable press with all kinds of fiction-editing proposals, which I cannot pursue at the moment. I might in the future.
So while I haven't been around as long as some here, I probably know more about these particular markets than your average AWer.
Here's a one-liner you can take away from this:
online markets are here to stay. Not all of them will survive long-term, but new ones will crop up to replace hem.
Four years ago, Chizine existed, Apex did not, two Prime online markets existed. BCS and DSF did not exist.
I do not understand the model of BCS, but I suspect private funds. Over the years, enough people talked to me about starting a pro venue that I know that this is a dream for many geeks with independent means, and enough geeks have independent means these days. It says nothing about the magazines' long-term survivability.
I cannot tell you what will happen with BCS and DSF, both of which appear, to my eye, to be privately-funded. I say that BCS has gained quite a reputation, pays only 5c a word, stories won awards and the magazine has a solid following. Many of those stories are commercially viable (authors went on to place books, or have already placed books with top SFF presses). My prediction re:BCS is that if they keep up putting out anthologies, and stay creative, they will survive long term. I would not bet money on it, though.
DSF - I have no idea. Nobody does. I would not bet money on DSF, not even a dollar, surviving long-term; but I am open to surprises.
Now, let's look at Prime. Clarkesworld started in 2006, so it already survived your five years benchmark. It is an award-winning magazine that has been steadily expanding. They sell anthologies and ebooks of the titles that are profitable. They pay 10c a word, and started out accepting stories up to 4000 words. They now consider stories of up to 7k, if I am not mistaken. Fantasy Magazine, also run by Prime, started out as a print semi-pro magazine in 2005. It is six years old. They transitioned to pro payment in 2008. They also launched Lightspeed (another pro-paying venue), and are in the process of transitioning Jabberwocky (a semi-pro print mag) to online this year. This is not because Wallace wants to throw his money away, but because it works for him as a business model. They make money from ebooks, anthologies, novel sales - often discovering new authors through short fiction. Many of their anthologists and novelists have started as short fiction writers published in various Prime publications. It also helps them diversify and keep the press name out there. FYI, ebooks of stories available for free sell extremely well.
I don't know what will happen with Prime. It may fold in 5 years, but it is a robust operation (not without problems), to be sure.
Strange Horizons, as I said above, is a community-funded operation that is 11 years old. As long as they stay true to their mission, we will be supporting them. There'd been some noise lately about the reviews. They listened to the rabble and are making corrections. SH will survive because it is crucial to us, and we not only read what they publish, but also earn salaries. I would bet good money that SH will still be around in 5 years.
As for the others. Apex sells ebooks of issues, and is a press, but I am doubtful about its long-term survivability. I have no connection to Chizine, so I cannot talk about them. They also had been around for years. They are now asking for donations.
As you can see, the models are quite different - and so are the outcomes.
Your original premise, that these online venues will somehow disappear, is faulty because a few of these magazines are quite venerable, as SFF venues go. They had been surviving, and some even thriving. As I said, most short fiction magazines are a labor of love - and thus you cannot compare these venues to the newspaper model.
Your comparison to "blogs" also does not work, but I think I typed enough for one day.
FWIW, print genre magazines had been threatened even more than online magazines. One needs only to look at the sad, sad story of RoF. Subscriptions had been declining for the big three as well, although ebook Kindle sales are soaring for Asimov's. Ultimately, imho, it is ebook sales that will keep both print and online magazines afloat.
