The business may be more complex than you think it is.
Currently publisher sales reps talk to buyers. Buyers - including the ones from Borders - say "Yeah, we can take a few thousand of those."
The sales reps talk to their management and management decides whether or not to greenlight a project.
When sales reps talk to Amazon, Amazon says "Yeah - maybe - whatever." Because Amazon has a different business model, and books are just part of it.
So the sales team downsizes their estimates, and fewer projects get the green light.
And even in 2011, there are still many people who buy books because they're browsing and drinking coffee, meeting friends, and doing all of those things that people only do in real book stores.
It's especially bad news for midlist fiction, because a lot of midlist fiction is sold through physical browsing to readers who are looking for something genre-ish but new to them.
Amazon doesn't offer the same browsing experience for mid-listers. The book previews are too sketchy to close a casual sale, and "also bought" is ignored more often than not.
So the midlist shrinks further, which again means fewer commissions and sales of new projects.
I know how the business works. I've been on both sides of teh desk for thirty years, I also know nature abhors a vacuum, and books sold very, very well before there was a Borders. If there's a demand, then business will always fill it.
Unless actual customer demand for books goes down, Borders going out will cause no loss of business to publishers at all, and unless human nature changes, a new bookstore will replace Borders, be it a B&N, or an independent.
Amazon? Who knows. They may be the benefactor, but Borders is hardly the only place to browse books. Good God, the closest chain bookstore to me is a forty mile drive, and the closest city that has two is a hundred and thirty mile drive. We don't even have a used bookstore here. But people here still read books. A lot of them, and most don't get them from Amazon.
If Borders actually closes, there will be a burp period while everyone adjusts, but the book economy does not rest with Borders, or B&N, or Amazon. It rests with readers, with customers, and those customers are simply not going to stop reading because Borders goes away, anymore than they stopped reading when independent bookstores went away. Someone will move in to fill the void. They always do. That's really the sole aim of business.
As for mid-list writers, that seems to be all I ever hear. When I first started in this business more than thirty years ago, it seemed every other article I read was about the mid-list being cut or eliminated.
One of the first things I did was read the archives our library had of The Writer and Writer's Digest. They went back to almost the beginning of both magazines. Decades and decades. It seemed every other issue also had dire warnings about mid-list writers.
And, in fact, I've seen several mid-list writer cuts in my lifetime. There's simply nothing new about publishers cutting the mid-list. The cuts did those particular writers no good, though some moved on and got out of the mid-list. As they say, that's why God created pseudonyms. But it always seemed to help the industry as a whole, and certainly helped new writers trying to break in. That's fine with me.
The mid-list going down does not mean fewer commissions or loss of sales. It means more new writers will get those commissions and sales. You move out the old to make room for the new, and in publishing, this means moving those who aren't selling well enough and replacing them with new writers who might do better.
Everyone seems to admit that publishing is a business, and then seem amazed when publishers actually act like one.