Brave New World
The e-book industry may well be struggling right now, but it will be interesting to see where it stands in 5 years time.
I sense a massive shake-out of the publishing industry just around the corner, and I think the only thing standing in the way is affordable and acceptable technology.
The music industry is in the throes of just such a radical change, despite fierce resistance from a cabal of major players. The distribution system for getting sounds into ears has been revolutionised by three pieces of technology: first the Internet, second MP3 as a standard compressed format, and third the reduction of the size/price of flash memory/hard drives to the point where reasonable capacity players are available at a price the target market can readily afford. Now you can buy the tunes you want for 99c each instead of forking out for a whole CD, and the children do say, "Yea, verily, this is A Good Thing".
The same shift is destined to happen to the movie business. Other than a handful of movies that just have to be seen on a huge screen, there are many arguments for watching at home on DVD with a plasma screen and home theatre system. The cost of those items are rapidly approaching affordability by most households, and as soon as they are, the relative cost of renting a DVD compared to a family outing to the cinema makes it a no-brainer. (Not to mention avoiding the flurry of seat swapping to get little Jimmy out from behind the woman with the bouffant hairdo. Or pausing for a pee-break, a grab-another-beer sally, a raid-the-fridge-for-goodies moment, or just because you feel like it).
Similarly, it can't be long before a practical, convenient and acceptable e-book reader is available at an affordable price. What then?
Yes, I hear you say, you prefer paper, it's look and feel and smell. So do I, at the moment. But it's a bit of a nuisance. I'm not buying many books these days, because I've run out of space in my bookshelves. Get some more shelves? Running out of places to put those, too. Move house? Can't -- too many books; no removalist would risk the compo claims for hernias. There's a lot to be said for an alternative that fits hundreds of books on a single CD-ROM or thousands on a DVD.
Then there's the cost. Paper is expensive. It doesn't start out that way, but by the time it's been cut, wasted, printed on, shipped, taxed, and stuck on a shelf, the number of mark-ups along the way make it rather expensive. Silly really, because the value of books is in their content, the golden words, which are ephemera that flow from the writer's mind to the reader's consciousness. With this paper system, the writer is happy (!??!) to get a buck or two out of each sale, whereas the bookshop owner demands 5 to 20 dollars. Does that seem fair?
Books are the same as any other commodity in that they exhibit price/demand elasticity, ergo reduce the price, increase the number of copies sold. The more you think about it, the greater the argument for taking paper out of the equation and delivering them electronically. The price of a book experience could be considerably reduced (halved, easily, because there's minimal cost of product) while the number of 'copies' sold would increase, as might royalties received by the author.
Where's the flaw in this argument? Only that the paper publishing/bookselling industry currently acts as a clearing house for quality. The rewards for success and risks for failure make them very focussed on making what they think are the right choices. As a buyer therefore, we can (theoretically at least) browse the shelves of a bookstore confident in the belief that anything we buy will be up to a certain minimum standard. Browsing the web site of an e-publisher you've never heard of doesn't inspire the same confidence.
This is, however, only a branding issue. If Random House, Harper Collins or Tor, for example, suddenly changed to e-publishing only, there would be no reason to think the e-books they offered would be of lesser quality. Their outlays and risks would be dramatically reduced, so they could also publish more authors.
With this scenario of reduced outlay and risk, there would be every opportunity for new e-publishers to emerge with exactly the same standards of publishing integrity as the current hard-copy players. The only unknown is how long it would take them to establish their credentials. Given the experience of other brands on the Internet - e.g. Amazon, e-bay, Yahoo, Google etc - the communicativeness of the environment is such that it might not take long at all.
While I can't help being a bit sentimental about the old-fashioned book, overall I'm convinced that technology is poised to bring us a brave new era that will probably be more favourable for writers. As soon as an e-book reader is available for, say, <$150 that is close to the convenience of a book for reading at the beach or in the john, I have no doubt that some forward-thinking parties either at existing publishers or new ones will be making new, top quality content available for them.
No doubt many e-publishers will emerge with the ethical standards of a P.A., and more and more execrable work will be made available. But more and more good work will also become available, and the reader's problem of sorting the wheat from the chaff will merely be an expanded version of the current bookshop-browsing experience.