Will big name novelists defect more?

No. Mainly because there's a lot more to putting a book out there -- even an e-book -- than just writing it, even if all you have to do for the marketing is one blog post or tweet that it exists. Quite frankly, the further your writing career advances, the less time you have. Why add more to your To Do list when you can have legitimate publishers and editors doing the tedious work for you? Plus, if they're any type of people at all, there's a sense of responsibility that comes from knowing there are people who depend on you for their livelihoods.

I would also point out that the author admitted they sold fewer copies, even if they did make more per unit, than they would have if they'd gone through a commercial publisher. In the long run, I would speculate that would mean he will make less money from that particular novel because he won't garner as much word of mouth and won't be able to spin it into other engagements as easily.

Didn't this particular author, Sigler, get his current publishing contract by posting his first novel online as a free ebook, and his later books as podcasts? Obviously he worked his butt off to get that kind of success, but his sort of situation is really rare. Just saying, that's probably the reason for his extreme optimism towards the internets.

And, isn't it really bad business to drop the publisher who's done so much to make your career? Wouldn't that make other publishers/studios/etc reluctant to do business with someone?

Stephen King tried it. It didn't end well.

I would think, by the time you've reached that level of success, that you would have built up working relationships with agents and editors that would be very difficult to just let go of.

Also, website sales might work for die-hard fan but what about the casual reader? The impulse buyer? The people who are more likely to randomly pick something up in a store than to seek it out on an author's website.

At this point it doesn't seem to be the best way to go but the world is changing fast, so who knows?

Personally, I think the biggest issues would be that if an author begins to sell direct there would be a measure of the readership who would fall off because they are reading sheep and they want to read what is being promoted to them, other segments would begin to feel entitled (it happens already but more so without the buffer of the layers of publishing and booksellers) feeling they should be heard and the author take their opinions into account when writing directly for them then there would be the ones who feel that they could share the 'books' - epiracy or simply resell them, both of which already takes a cut of the pie but in the new model would be a headache for the author selling directly.

That's what I'd see as big name author issues for this model.
Plus what everyone else said about money and publicity.

annie
http://ishowerwiththemostinterestingpeople.blogspot.com/

I'll buy into that scenario as soon as I see debut authors making the kind of sales on their own that they are able to make via traditional routes. It is possible that it may happen one day in the future, but in the near future, authors will still rely on the industry to do marketing and distribution for them.

It would only work now for Stephenie Meyer because of the enormous readership she's built via the regular route.

Don't many authors have "first look" clauses in their contracts with publishers, anyway?

I think it would be difficult to do, unless you're willing to also spend tons of cash in marketing, which increases the gamble. Maybe a really hot author can do it, but then they'd have to create some kind of social network that keeps traffic flowing in their direction.

I think authors would much rather write books than deal with the business side of marketing, distribution, printing.

L.Jones said:

Personally, I think the biggest issues would be that if an author begins to sell direct there would be a measure of the readership who would fall off because they are reading sheep

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This is a rather discourteous way to view readers.

In 1980, Dean Koontz put out a book about how the publishing industry had changed in just the prior 15-20 years. I read it at the time and wondered how we writers might cope with emerging bookseller consolidation, monopolist practices, the rise of marketeer influence, to say nothing of reader trends.

Not so long ago you could submit directly to a publishing editor--you only got an agent to manage your work AFTER editor acceptance. It wasn't long after that that enterprising editors realized they could make more money agenting. And they were encouraged by the publishers to set up shop because the houses, deluged by growing slush piles, needed a reading buffer. Today, you don't seriously seek publication without an agent in most cases.

Along came the web ten years ago and the agents and editor dug in their collective heels. "No email queries, no email submissions." Hell, no web site, no email address anyway, because it was snail mail business as usual.

Here comes the next wave--blogs are morphing into author sites are morphing into sales sites. Trying to predict where this is going, based on an isolated case or two, is futile because even the people in the business admit publicly that they don't know.

The question for publishers and agents alike (because they're joined at the hip) is how to stay in front of the parade and not get pushed aside. We see evidence of this in the recent squabble over internet price setting, the reluctance of older-generation agents to embrace the web and email submissions.

We're on the cusp of another change and I find it exciting to be writing instead of worrying how to protect my flanks.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Yes, someone is going to try it. And it'll probably not be one of the very very top names, but someone who is at the top of the midlist.

And most of them will have disappointing results (at first, at least) and a couple will be successful. All the self-published writers will point at the successes and ignore the failures.

A few big names will do the Anne Rice thing--deciding they don't need to have their perfect words edited any more--and they'll switch to a DIY model. Most of them will lose sales and fade. One or two will become incredibly successful.

Most people will still need professional publishers. A few will make a success of it. Wannabes will romanticize them, and people will argue on the internet about it.

I'm sure about that last part, anyway.

Now that I think of it, using S. Meyer as a pattern, I can actually see this working.

IF you have an ultra hot series where fans are clamoring for more, AND you have people begging for the next installment, AND it's going to be a while before that installment hits shelves, then why not sell some short stories? That probably would sell several downloads or even self-pubbed (real self, not vanity) copies.

If, while fans were waiting for the next Twilight novel, Ms. Meyer wrote a detailed history for some of the characters - going into side stories, like how Alice ended up in the asylum and what happened to her there, how she met her sire, etc - she could have some solid novella material that fans who already read fanfic would be willing to pay for while they wait.

It could possibly work well in the future when e-readers are more widespread. But there are also contractual obligations to consider.

And usually, if an author has reached this level, publishers are more than willing to pay massive sums of money upfront and do all the work anyway.

Cyia said:

Now that I think of it, using S. Meyer as a pattern, I can actually see this working.

IF you have an ultra hot series where fans are clamoring for more, AND you have people begging for the next installment, AND it's going to be a while before that installment hits shelves, then why not sell some short stories? That probably would sell several downloads or even self-pubbed (real self, not vanity) copies.

If, while fans were waiting for the next Twilight novel, Ms. Meyer wrote a detailed history for some of the characters - going into side stories, like how Alice ended up in the asylum and what happened to her there, how she met her sire, etc - she could have some solid novella material that fans who already read fanfic would be willing to pay for while they wait.

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Because, it still takes time to write these stories. It still takes time to edit them and format them and load them online. Because, there's working going on that takes time between a first draft and a release date. The author isn't just sitting their twiddling their thumbs, looking for something to do.

Meyer sells MILLIONS of books plus movie options and foreign rights and such. Why would she want to sell 200,000 copies and do all the work? Defect from what? Success?

"Scott Sigler" is a BIG-NAME novelist? I never heard of him.

caw

In order to do what the publishers do for you, you'd have to hire a team of specialists.

In addition to adding work and trouble, it would cost you money out of pocket, killing any additional profit.

I imagine that anyone who wanted to put up with this kind of work would have gone into publishing on their own.

Sure, you can save money if you build your own house, but you kinda have to know what you're doing, and you've got to do a lot more work. In the end, it's not worth it unless you already know how to build a house and have all the contacts.

Stephenie Meyer won't defect. Why on earth would she want to do that? So she can make money directly by selling 200,000 copies, as opposed to making so much more from selling - I don't know - MILLIONS? What about her international audience? The French, the Italians? Who will translate her work for them?

No way. No one defects from success or an already successful method of making money.

There are some authors who could hire a team of specialists for much less than the publisher's cut of the book, if their contracts are roughly similar to what debut novelists get. However, these authors probably get more favorable royalty terms from publishers than most other authors.

It's a great idea if you're more interested in running a small business than you are in writing.

Nicole

It might work well if you're writing for a very specific niche market. Say you write nothing but stories about dinosaurs having sex. Anybody interested in that won't expect to find a book about it in the store; he'll already be doing web searches (one-handed), and he'll come across your blog. Presto, you've sold another copy of Menage a Triassic.