sales figures

[Melissa_Beckwith]

Hello everyone!
I am writing a query letter for my fantasy novel and I would like to show the agents that I will be querying that I have done my homework. However, I am having trouble finding sales/demographic figures/info for fantasy books.

In particular, I want to know what percentage of books sold are fantasy and of that percentage how many of those buyers are female, in what age bracket, and if I get lucky, what cities are the biggest sellers of fantasy novels.

That’s not asking for much, is it? LOL

Thank you for any help that you can give me.

Melissa

[Cathy C]

You're doing the wrong homework, darlin. This is the information that an agent who represents fantasy already knows. The demographics that an agent is going to want to know from you is what your target markets are. What other fantasy authors' fans are you trying to reach? Is the book an alternate reality, urban fantasy that might be a big hit in inner cities, or more a Mercedes Lackey sort of fantasy with swords and talking animals? Nobody "steals" fans, after all -- you're merely next month's selection after the fan has finished their favorite author's latest.


For example, our book appeals to fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong. Those are large markets that cross the fantasy/dark fantasy/horror line and it's definitely information an agent wants to see.
Does that help?

[maestrowork]

Why? Why do you want to query an agent/publisher with that info?

Just write a good book and tell the agent why they should represent you. Leave the business figures to book sellers...

[James D. Macdonald]

The other folks are right, Melissa ... you don't need that information. The publishers' beancounters know it -- for their company -- but aren't going to tell anyone.

The put-a-marketing-plan-in-your-cover-letter thing is a leak from some areas of non-fiction. It isn't necessary with a novel.

[Andrew Jameson]

Er, what? Wait a minute, Uncle Jim; what you say confuses me.

I can understand how some of what Melissa asks for is extraneous, yes. However, you seem to be saying that any marketing-type information is extraneous.

Why wouldn't I want to, like Cathy C suggests, say something like, "our book appeals to fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong"? (assuming that were true, of course) I seem to recall you saying much the same thing previously (although my memory could be faulty). Moreover, wouldn't I want to say something like "our book appeals to the young female fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong because of blah blah blah," if those authors did indeed sell primarily to young female fans?

And, more importantly, wouldn't I want to say "our book appeals to fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong" only if Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong had decent sales (sales being one of the things Melissa asks about)?

[maestrowork]

I think it's okay to say "my book will appeal to fans of so-and-so."

But not "my book will appeal to the 2,040,000 readers of so-and-so and has the potential to make over $50,000,000 as Title-of-book did."

[James D. Macdonald]

Maestro has the right of it.

It's fine (good, even) to tell folks what your book is like.

[Cathy C]

Actually, Andrew, Melissa's question was even more specific:

In particular, I want to know what percentage of books sold are fantasy and of that percentage how many of those buyers are female, in what age bracket, and if I get lucky, what cities are the biggest sellers of fantasy novels

The agent wouldn't be interested to know that "22% of the 18-34 aged female market in New York is a fantasy reader, and fantasy makes up 17% of the entire genre fiction market." (Don't quote me -- I pulled those numbers out of a hat.)


For the record, though, fantasy makes up a very small percentage of the overall genre market. I believe that the SFF markets combined (science fiction & fantasy) account for about 22% of the mass paperback genre market. Romance is the leader of mass paperback, at 52% of the total market. Horror is down near the bottom at something like 5-6%, and mysteries take up the rest. I think suspense is lumped with mystery in mass paperback. Is that right, Jim?

[James D. Macdonald]

I think that fantasy/science fiction is about 11-12% of the overall fiction market, and a finer breakdown than that is impossible, because you get into trying to define what's fantasy and what's science fiction.

[Andrew Jameson]

Actually, Andrew, Melissa's question was even more specific:

The agent wouldn't be interested to know that "22% of the 18-34 aged female market in New York is a fantasy reader, and fantasy makes up 17% of the entire genre fiction market." (Don't quote me -- I pulled those numbers out of a hat.)Oh sure; I understand that. I just thought that Uncle Jim's comment "It [the put-a-marketing-plan-in-your-cover-letter thing] isn't necessary with a novel." was at odds with earlier advice stating that something like "our book appeals to fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong" was appropriate in a query letter.

However, a couple points. First of all, it also strikes me that a statement like "our book appeals to fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong" is pretty much unsupported; why should I believe that? If, however, I say that "our book appeals to the predominantly young female fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong who say they enjoy reading about strong female characters" (I made that up; don't shoot me) then I show that there is something in my story that should resonate with a fairly large potential audience. Granted, I'm speaking from ignorance here, but it seems to me that a carefully crafted sentence suggesting the whys and wheres of a large audience, as well as the whos, would be an asset.

Second point is that another thing Melissa did ask about was sales, which certainly seems a legitimate question to ask. After all, you wouldn't want to say "our book appeals to fans of Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong" if Laurell K. Hamilton and Kelley Armstrong sold seventeen books combined last year. So what's a good way to find information on sales? My intuition says to start in the bookstore and see which authors are given the most shelf space, but it sure would be handy if there was some web site that listed sales figures, author by author and year by year.

[Aconite]

but it sure would be handy if there was some web site that listed sales figures, author by author and year by year.
It would, wouldn't it? Authors have thought that something similar would be a great idea for years. There is a program that accounts for bookstore sales at points of sale, but the information is incomplete and hard for the average person to get access to.

If you read extensively in the genre you're writing in, read trade magazines (like Locus) for sales rankings and publicity events, pay attention to which books are getting good reviews and extra marketing, and see which books are getting shelved in non-bookstore stores (like Target or Wal-Mart) and being picked up by book clubs, you can make good guesses about which books are selling well. It would be pretty hard not to know the Big Names in whichever genre you write in.

As for crafting the marketing statement, I leave specifics to the experts. Fans of LKH may love my work too, but how am I to know whether it's the female fantasy fans reading her, the S&M fans of either sex, the gay vampire fans, or whichever other segments of readers who are going to like my stuff? And do I care? Nope. A sale's a sale. "People who like her stuff will give mine a look" (phrased more elegantly) is all that matters.

[pianoman5]

... but it sure would be handy if there was some web site that listed sales figures, author by author and year by year.

Such figures have always been treated as "commercial-in-confidence" for business reasons, except for books with spectacular sales performance. The numbers for those are trumpeted from the rooftops by overjoyed publishing executives--who get to keep their jobs--and agents, who may be elevated from a modest living to a comfortable one.

One of the neat things about secret sales numbers was that nobody knew anything (a speciality of the publishing world). Publishers could lie to each other, for a variety of reasons, one of which was to protect their authors who were not selling especially well. All this has changed, however, with the advent of Nielsen's Bookscan service. This gathers actual sales figures from the point-of-sale systems of major booksellers and delivers the shocking truth monthly to any interested party with the wherewithal to afford a subscription.

This is one of the reasons that the beancounters have taken over, especially in the the big publishing houses. In management circles it's always said that, "If you can't measure it, you can't manage it." Now that book sell-through rates are being measured to disturbing degrees of accuracy, corporate types (Readers Digest readers in suits) are managing the hell out of the industry.

One of the obvious trends that has been accurately revealed in the last couple of years is that while (in certain markets) book sales are up, the number of titles sold is down. A relatively small number of blockbusters and big-sellers are increasingly dominating the market. As a result, some publishers are culling their mid-list authors and looking with ever-more jaundiced eyes at first-timers.

[James D. Macdonald]

If you're trying to tell someone what a book is like, saying "this book is like a combination of Bret Easton Ellis and Carl Hiaason" might work in a query. I don't know as I'd do it in a cover letter since the book is right there and the book speaks for itself.

You probably don't have to only mention blockbuster authors. If you've got a small, quirky, but appealing book -- they have niches too.

I really think the whole "marketing plan" thing is overdone.

[maestrowork]

I just don't see how sales figures are relevant in your pitch. If I say "my book will appeal to the fans of John Grisham," it doesn't take a genius to understand that John Grisham sells a lot of books. I don't need to tell them what % market shares and $ figures my book is going to get. Leave that to the publisher to figure out. Your job is a writer who writes the best stories ever told. Obviously you should be aware of your target market and it's always good to mention if your book is just like a Grisham thriller. But sales figures?

[Cathy C]

Nielsen's Bookscan service. This gathers actual sales figures from the point-of-sale systems of major booksellers and delivers the shocking truth monthly to any interested party with the wherewithal to afford a subscription.


Very true. But only a small percentage of publishers can actually afford a Nielsen subscription, which can run from $75,000 for a single genre up to one and a quarter million for the whole list each year. An organization I belong to, Romance Writers of America, recently made big headlines by penning a deal with Nielsen to offer subscriptions to the Top 100 romance sales to their members for only $50 a year. Now, mind you, RWA has over 9,000 members world-wide, so Nielsen isn't hurting in the deal. It is a marketing tool for me to be able to say that our last book was listed on the BookScan list for seven weeks. To make to the bottom of the list, weekly sales have to be 1,000 books. That means something to distributors when they're looking at whether to take on the sequel.

[James D. Macdonald]

Bookscan is interesting, but not a complete picture. They only cover about 60% of bookstores, and bookstores are only 60% of booksales. Still, it's a dipstick. One of the things that Bookscan showed was that the genres were selling lots better -- and literary novels were selling lots worse -- than the Best Seller Lists would have led you to believe.

[Jamesaritchie]

In a query letter, sales figures and comparisons can sometimes make an agent or editor think you've done your homework, and agents and editors do appreciate writers who do their homework. But no one is really going to care about the numbers you cite or the comparisons you make until after they read the manuscript.

And when reading a manuscript, agents and editors are going to make their own comparisons.

Any editor who works at a conglomerate publisher can get nearly perfect numbers instantly, and so can any national distributor or chain bookstore. Chain bookstores and national distributors make many of their decisions about books by checking the numbers before doing anything else. They know exactly how many copies of your last novel sold. Neilsen is just one tool they use. If national distributors and chain bookstores didn't know the numbers without the writer telling them, they wouldn't last long. By and large, national distributors and chain bookstores always use the numbers they have access to, which outstrip Nielsen from their point of view, to determine exactly how many copies of a writers next novel to handle/stock.

And any experienced editor can make a phone call and get nearly exact numbers, even if they don't have direct access to Nielsen.

And any editor has exact numbers for the books his own publisher sells, of course. They couldn't pay writers without knowing how many books sold. And when this editor works for a conglomerate, this means access to nearly exact numbers for all publishers that fall under the conglomerate, and for all the booklines at each publisher.

But in truth, exact numbers are far more imortant to national distributors and chain bookstores, both of which already know them, than they are to agents and editors.

An agent or editor generally reads a manuscript and likes it or not. If they like the manuscript, sales are judged, accurately, by thoughts such as "Books like this generally don't sell well, generally sell moderately well, usually sell pretty well, often sell extremely well."

And comparisons in fiction are often risky. If you say, "My novel is like a cross between Lawrence Block and Robert B. Parker," an agent or editor is always going to be tempted to read a few pages and say, "Like hell it is!" Not to say a writer shouldn;t make compartisons to other writers. They can be helpful. But they had better be apt comparisons, and when dealing with agents, it's best to compare your novels with others that particular agent has handled.

Knowing sales numbers for your own book shouldn't require access to Nielsen, and in all truth, it's no one's business outside of publishing what the sales numbers are for someone else's book. Why not just go to the writer and ask to see his royalty statement or his checkbook?

If you sell a novel, it will be because an agent or editor thinks it's a novel the public will buy, and they won't use any numbers or comparisons the writer makes to reach this decision. And trying to write a novel in a certain genre or because a given novel had great sales is almost always self-defeating. To write well, you have to write what you love to write, not what someone else had a bestseller with.

[aruna]

In newspeper or magazine reviews one often reads that "It shot to Amazon's top ten in the first week" or some such thing. I knw that autors watch their amazon rankings like haws - ot's just about the only measurement of sales avialble to them. Does anyone know how amazon rankings compare to overall sales rankings? Does anyone know what they mean at all? For instance, a 6000 ranking corresponds to how many books sold, etc?

[Andrew Jameson]

I just don't see how sales figures are relevant in your pitch. If I say "my book will appeal to the fans of John Grisham," it doesn't take a genius to understand that John Grisham sells a lot of books.Yeah, but I thought that the idea behind saying, "my book will appeal to the fans of authors X and Y" in a query is to give potential agents/editors a sense of where the book falls in the broad continuum of the genre. And, more specifically, to pique the agent/editor's interest.

Sure, any schmoe can figure out that JK Rowling or Stephan King sells a lot of books. But if I'm an agent, and I see, "my book will appeal to the fans of JK Rowling" in a query, I raise my eyebrows. Why? Because any schmoe can figure out that JK Rowling sells a lot of books. And that's why the author put "JK Rowling" in the query.

So wouldn't it be better to put in an author that's more descriptive? Something that lets the agent know you've done your homework? "My book will appeal to the fans of Anne McCaffery." LE Modesitt. Martha Wells. James Macdonald. Robin Hobb. Whoever. I doubt any of these authors have sales anywhere near those of JK Rowling.

But still, if I choose to compare my work to that of other authors, I want to make sure the work is similar, yes, but I also want to make sure that the authors I choose have decent sales -- otherwise the comparison hurts. Sure, any schmoe knows that John Grisham and Stephan King and JK Rowling sell a lot of books. But what about Anne McCaffery?

[maestrowork]

Then you're really talking about comparing genres or styles. I mean any authors you're going to mention would have decent sales -- at least some of their books -- or else they wouldn't be recognizable. If Anne McCaffery hasn't sold a decent # of books, I doubt an agent would even know who she is... I mean, surely you would name someone everyone knows. If you say "my book will appeal to the fans of Raymond Wong" -- they'd just say, WHO?

[Andrew Jameson]

Ah; OK. I think that answers what my question really is, which is more along the lines of, "how do I know if author X has *good enough* sales figures that comparing myself to him or her won't cause an agent/editor to laugh out loud?"

My sense was that if the author has a recognizable name: multiple books in print and on the shelf, maybe some awards, reviews in trade publications -- someone I could mention in conversation with another genre geek and expect to be understood, in other words -- then that was "good enough." I was just thinking that hard numbers confirming that would be nice.

[Cathy C]

In newspeper or magazine reviews one often reads that "It shot to Amazon's top ten in the first week" or some such thing. I knw that autors watch their amazon rankings like haws - ot's just about the only measurement of sales avialble to them. Does anyone know how amazon rankings compare to overall sales rankings? Does anyone know what they mean at all? For instance, a 6000 ranking corresponds to how many books sold, etc?

This is a slippery question, but one writer made a solid attempt at answering it, here (http://www.fonerbooks.com/surfing.htm). Shooting up to Amazon's top ten doesn't really happen in the first week. It takes some time to make it up there, even if it's behind the scenes. But this will help you understand how it works. :)

[maestrowork]

If the author has more than 2 books out and they're relatively recent, you can assume that they've made pretty good sales...

[Jamesaritchie]

In newspeper or magazine reviews one often reads that "It shot to Amazon's top ten in the first week" or some such thing. I knw that autors watch their amazon rankings like haws - ot's just about the only measurement of sales avialble to them. Does anyone know how amazon rankings compare to overall sales rankings? Does anyone know what they mean at all? For instance, a 6000 ranking corresponds to how many books sold, etc?

Not even Amazon.com can figure out what their own sales numbers mean. Under the right conditions, a single book selling can jump Amazon numbers up trememdously. Writers watch Amazon nso closely largely because they have nothing else to watch. But maybe this article will help:

http://www.fonerbooks.com/surfing.htm