Excellent post.
As a writer, you can psyche yourself out. The agent! The agent's superiors! The editor! The editorial board! The marketing reps! The scouts! All, all of them conspiring against me!
Trust in your book. Trust in your talent. It CAN happen, and it does all the time.
I totally agree. There are so many unquantifiable factors at play in this nutty business it is impossible to calculate odds. I am an oddsbeater - uncredentialed, unpublished, I havn't been writing for years and honing my craft, I didn't know anyone who knew someone to give me a leg up - but here I sit with a two book deal.
The one thing I always had was faith in the fact that I wrote a really good story. In truth, I believe there is an awful lot of being in the right place at the right time involved in this whole process. That's why I sent out a zillion queries - you never know what will blow wind up an agent's skirt on any given day. The agents are the gatekeepers, but when you land one, it's just another step in the long haul.