Great in '08

Stab:

You're on the money on both counts with Clinton and Obama. Edwards still has plenty of upside. Still pretty young, telegenic, and proved in 2004 to be an effective campaigner. Will play well in some southern states, which the Dems probably need to take one or two of, the most likely candidates being Florida and Louisiana. No dummy.

The other Dem of interest is Biden. Likewise no dummy, very articulate, can come across as abrasive and arrogant. But he's been around a long while and could be a significant veep possibility, although I think Obama right now is a lock for that spot if he wants it. It would set him up for a Pres run down the road, win or lose.

Among the Repubs: I never heard of Doug Stanhope. Which doesn't rule him out; nobody outside of Georgia had ever heard of Jimmie Carter back in 1974, either.

McCain has lots of unpublicized negative vibes among the Republican mainstream, both from the party infrastructure and from doctrinaire conservatives, both social and economic. He'll have to work hard to overcome those.

Romney is little more than a pretty face at this juncture.

Giuliani? I don't see him playing well on the national stage over the long haul.

Brownback? Way too far right socially to have the needed national appeal.

Other possibles: Lindsey Graham, maybe. But right now, other than these names, the Republicans are a little short of pizzazz. Somebody is going to need to come out of the woodwork.

caw

Some facts about Presidential elections:

The only serving Senator to win the Presidency in the past century was John F. Kennedy, who won a close and disputable election. The only people to move directly via election from the Vice-Presidency to the top job in the last century were Herbert Hoover and George H. W. Bush. Several others have tried (Nixon, Humphrey, Gore) and lost. Being a state governor, either current or former, has been the preferred electoral road to the Presidency in recent decades (Roosevelt, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush 43).

caw

McCain has lots of unpublicized negative vibes among the Republican mainstream, both from the party infrastructure and from doctrinaire conservatives, both social and economic. He'll have to work hard to overcome those.

Click to expand...

He's also hamstrung by the fact that his recent moves to try to appeal to the doctrinaire conservative wing has hurt his standing among independent and swing voters.

I'll throw some thoughts on a few others later.

the only thing more frightening than a hillary clinton presidency is what bill would do to pass the time.

Great in 08

Matt, I'll take on Rudy and a couple of others and try to be as non-partisan as I can. As for McCain, lemme point out this from the Washington Post's recent poll (and keep in mind, it's still Dec. friggin 2006)

"McCain's favorability ratings have declined over the past nine months. Among independents, his support has dropped 15 percentage points since March. Independents were his strongest supporters when he sought the Republican nomination in 2000."

So I dispute whether he'd be a "star" in the general election. I think his star has eroded -- and he could well lose to Hillary, not beat her.

Rudy Guiliani (R)

• Pros - symbolic importance, having been a steady voice of calm and leadership during our nation's worst crisis; liberal social views will appeal to some independents tired of moral scolds; high profile, noted fundraiser, strong public speaker, "America's Mayor"; good crisis manager
• Cons - lack of foreign policy experience; exhibits similar authoritarian tendencies as the current administration (and worse in certain ways); treats anyone who disagrees as a sworn enemy to be annihilated; liberal social views and things in his closet (divorces, gay roommates, dressing in drag) could alienate doctrinaire social conservatives; views every issue through the prism of an enemy to be destroyed which works well in some areas (crime) and comes across heavy-handed in others (offensive art installations)
• My take - Likely to raise a lot of money, puts up a major fight in the primaries, would likely lose to a moderate Dem.

Chuck Hagel (R)

• Pros - Has the strange affectation of seeming intelligent at a time when the nation is led by buffoons; willingness to work with others and modify views when the situation warrants; well-spoken, comes across like an adult
• Cons - Kind of boring, to be honest; leans rather conservative, most positions unknown; could peak too early, is he a major political player?
• My take - Will do well in some primaries, but second place doesn't get you much.

Sam Brownback (R)

• Pros - Not much. comes from the middle of the country
• Cons - Moral scold; doctrinaire conservative at a time when voters seem to be moving away from it; lack of significant legislative accomplishments, lack of foreign policy experience; very few know who he is. If given a choice between a bland Great Plains senator, voters more likely to go for the smart one (Hagel) rather than the dumb one (this clown);
• My take - Doesn't have a prayer in hell. 2008's Orrin Hatch at best.

George Pataki (R)

• Pros - He's tall. Governor of a big state during economic boom, would be a cinch to raise a bundle of money
• Cons - Nasally, annoying voice; doesn't seem to stand for anything at all; eternally boring
• My take - Has no chance. Will outlast Brownback and that's about it.

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Wesley Clark (D)

• Pros - Military experience, views on Iraq were solid all the way through; won't back down in the face of stupid criticisms; appeals to southern voters (from Arkansas)
• Cons - No legislative experience; has improved as a speaker but still a bit wooden and stiff at times, major policy positions unclear
• My take - Will likely end up losing the primary; long-shot candidate for VP, a likely cabinet member in a Dem administration, long-shot cabinet member in a moderate Republican admin

John Kerry (D)

• Pros - Raised a ton of money for Dem candidates in '06 elections; well-spoken, finally finding his voice
• Cons - Lost in 2004; finds a way to stick his foot in it for every 3 things he says that make sense; still seems to have confused positions and views on Iraq - clear-minded moral sense from 1971 is now buried under 35 years of waffling; lots of Dems want him to just go away
• My take - Will run and finish fourth in several primaries and bow out gracefully.

Joseph Biden (D)

• Pros - About as much foreign policy experience one can have without having served in an administration; willingness to throw new ideas out there, even if seemingly unworkable; long-time, experienced senator; intelligent;
• Cons - Ran once before and it wasn't happening then due to lack of appeal (kind of ugly); from a small Northeastern state, and we know how well that worked in 04 and 88; lacks the starpower of Hilary, Obama, or Edwards (or even Clark, really)
• My take - Also-ran in the primaries. If he stays in long enough to win Delaware, it'll be an achievement, and then he'll drop out.