COVID-19 | Coronavirus December 2020

Drives me crazy how much the aerosol and smaller droplets angle are being downplayed, in spite of all the data that indicate these are important factors. We've known that the "six feet" guideline is based on outdated science at best and arbitrary at worst. I know agencies and health care networks are slow to change their guidelines, until there is a preponderance of evidence, but when implementing newer information does no harm and has the potential to save lives, it seems like a no brainer. From a medical standpoint at least. It's not their job to worry about economic impacts or politics. They're supposed to tell us what the potential risks are and how they could be mitigated.


I heard a piece on our local public radio station last night, between 7-7:30, that cited a paper in Nature that stated that people from poor, urban populations were twice as likely to catch Covid-19 grocery shopping as more affluent populations. The reasons are manyfold--shoppers in heavily urban areas relying on smaller "corner" markets with a higher customer per square foot density, taking longer to get in and out of these crowded stores, the need to shop for groceries more frequently (because of shopping on foot and having less money on hand to "stockpile" groceries). I imagine there is a "gift that keeps on giving" in these communities too, with more people employed in service professions that require close contact with others, and therefore more people in the shops are already likely to be positive.

I don't have a link, because I don't subscribe to Nature, and I've been unable to track down the article. Our local schedule for public radio hasn't been helpful in my tracking down what show this was or finding a transcript, as there is a "gap" between the end of Marketplace at 7 and the beginning of the next show at 7:30. I don't even know what news show was on when I heard that bit (I was driving at the time).

In any case, we must get the vaccines to these communities as soon as we can.

The UK has approved the Pfizer vaccine for immediate use. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ummeted-in-lead-up-to-fall-surge-survey-finds

Lazer and his colleagues at Harvard, Rutgers and Northwestern universities have been surveying about 20,000 U.S. adults nationwide about the pandemic, every month since April.

In one of two new reports from the survey, the researchers analyzed the responses of 139,230 Americans across all 50 states. They found social distancing and other efforts to try to prevent the virus from spreading "decreased dramatically" over the summer and into the fall, the report concludes.

For example, the percentage of people saying they had been in a room with people who are not members of their household in the last 24 hours jumped from 25 percent in April to 45 percent in October. Reports of people going to a café, bar, or restaurant more than tripled, from 5% in April to 15.9% in November. Similar trends were seen in people reporting going to work, places of worship, gyms and taking mass transit.

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And this should surprise no one. It was easy enough to observe the trend here, with more traffic on the roads, the crowded dining rooms seen through the window of restaurants where we get curbside, and the indoor lights on in our gym when we drove by. Oh, and all those FB posts talking about get togethers, visits to new grandbabies, birthday parties, graduation parties (last spring) and other events that clearly brought people from different households together indoors, often sans masks. People got sloppy throughout the summer and had more and more outdoor get togethers, and now that the weather is turning colder, they are moving them indoors. Easy to rationalize those "baby steps" of letting one's guard down.

The good news is that overall mask use is up, and an increasing number of Republicans support measures to slow the spread, even if they don't always agree with Democrats about which measures are more important.

I know it's not just us, as surges are happening in Europe as well. I suppose it's inevitable that people become fatigued, and of course there are some for whom staying home isn't an option.

I think the relaxation of restrictions was sort of willy nilly and based less on science than on economics as well. For instance, re-opening restaurants to indoor dining, or allowing those enclosed outdoor tents, but restricting other activities that are probably less risky. I know a lot of folks say we should have fewer laws and more common sense, but that never seems to be how people operate. Common sense dictated that seatbelts save lives from very early on, but it took laws to increase compliance to near 100%. Same thing for motorcycle helmets, letting people and animals ride in the back of open pick up trucks, secondhand smoke in indoor spaces, and more recently the mask ordinances (where compliance has increased by both Democrats and Republicans). People tend to do things that are legal, even when they are stupid and risky.

MaeZe said:

Re going on unemployment, Diana, maybe you know this stuff: If it is like WA State, there are a bunch of questions for the regular section. One has to answer you are able to work (ignore the fact there are caveats). and when asked if you are looking for work one can say no. Normally you would have to be looking for work.

But they added a new section when you are getting the Federal stimulus unemployment. In that one you only need to answer that COVID is stopping you from working. On my form it says something to the effect COVID is making it so you can't do your regular job. As long as you mark yes on that one, or any of the questions for that matter if they apply, you qualify.

Of course all these benefits are due to end in a month if McConnell gets his way.

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I got my NYS first unemployment payment already, as I just had to certify the week and answer a couple of questions to open my existing application again. I did not get the extra $300 federal money though. Last time, when it was the extra $600 I got it automatically. Everything I'm reading says that I should either get the money automatically, or the state will send me the form to get it. Maybe, I'll get it next week, as I did work some of the previous week. I guess I'll see.

MaeZe said:

I only got the extra $300 for ~5 weeks a couple months ago. I have no idea how they calculate it for someone who wasn't on unemployment during that window.

McConnell is the one person blocking more relief money.

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Yeah. they probably ran out of money. Hopefully more will be on the way, if McConnell relents. They still have two Senate races to win in GA, I would think there's a chance they do some sort of stimulus just for the temporary optics. You never know. Thank you.

That's the thing. McConnell has power, but the bigger problem is the GOP voting as a bloc. If enough GOP senators could be dislodged, at least on some issues, we might actually make progress. (I don't have a lot of confidence we'll pick up both seats in Georgia.)

A grim realization is about to set in.

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - Updated 04DEC2020
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

2,857 deaths on Dec 3rd.

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The number of people dying from COVID-19 in the US is about to surpass the total number of people who died in the 9/11 attacks (2977). Each. Fucking. Day.

-cb

cbenoi1 said:

The number of people dying from COVID-19 in the US is about to surpass the total number of people who died in the 9/11 attacks (2977). Each. Fucking. Day.

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“I blame Biden & China!” —70,000,000 Americans

I remember when the total number of dead first passed the number who died in 911, and there was some commentary to that effect in the media. I figured we'd end up looking back and thinking that number was small. I'm sorry to be right.

This really does illustrate how humans are wired to have an intense emotional response to immediate, short term crises but not to ones that unfold more gradually, even if the ultimate consequences are more severe. Where were all those anti mask people when the government decided we all needed to take our shoes off and submit to full body scans before we fly, or when they decreed we need to go through a rather onerous process to get a "real ID" if we want to fly, even domestically? Surely these latter are also examples of "big brother" making rules to (arguably) keep us safer, when the actual risk of any one person dying in a terrorist attack was still vanishingly small (much smaller than the risk of dying from Covid)?

Why is it more horrifying to contemplate being on an airplane that is going down, knowing you are very likely to die, than it is to contemplate being in the hospital, being put on a ventilator and knowing you are very likely to die?

Sometimes when I am driving around, out on an essential errand to the vet or grocery store, I wonder what it would feel like to be a time traveler from a couple of years back, or even a year ago, and to jump forward to see everyone going about in masks and all the odd things we now do, like waiting in the car when the vet tech takes my cat or dog in for an exam or treatment, or teaching my biology labs online. What would I think as someone who isn't far removed from the me I am now but without the context of the past 10 months?

*sigh* The solution is rather simple.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltjBT_TuUVA

-cb

A local (just outside Boston) friend is on a home vent and has been for years. She's been sharing how hard it has been for her to get supplies. They're rationing supplies and hospitals get priority. She posted a picture today showing that she had to patch a hole in tubing that is meant to be used once and kept sterile. She's had to reuse it as she cannot get what she needs. She is immunosuppressed and at much greater risk of infection because she has to reuse single-use supplies. Since almost the onset of the pandemic, each week, she spends most of her time trying to get what she needs to stay alive and care for her daughter. She has more strength, resilience, and resourcefulness than anyone I know, but she's breaking. And we can't help her, though we want to, because there are simply not enough supplies for everyone, thanks to people who won't inconvenience themselves even a little. And our numbers are still rising sharply, meaning it's going to get worse for her, and for everyone.

As it's been since the beginning of the pandemic, it's not just the covid patients who are suffering because of this disease. Other people are not getting the care, diagnoses, and medical supplies they need to stay healthy. Yet another reason to flatten the curve. Wish more people understood this.

And, it's not like you 'have' to wear a mask - you can always "Stay the blazes home!" *

*Quote from Stephen McNeil, past premier of Nova Scotia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ONjkkv2tXg

Is your trip really necessary? Do you have to go drinking, eating, or hanging out with your buds? What do you really need from the mall? If you're not going to work where are you going in such a hurry? Leave the social distances empty for those who have to use them. Food, groceries, books and other stuff can be delivered. Or, picked up outside the store.
This PSA brought to you by a woman who has only been out 6 times since March.

Oh, and churchgoers - Matthew 18:20 'Where two or three gather in my name, there am I with them."
Stay home, study the Bible and pray.

But, if you're going out, how dare you risk other people's health! Wear that mask!

We have to go out for food (no delivery in our area). I've been doing curbside pickup since before Thanksgiving, because cases are spiking badly here; but we don't have the choice to stay in the house.

Which I get, which is why people who do have choices should make better ones.

frimble3 said:

Which I get, which is why people who do have choices should make better ones.

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Oh, I agree. I am scrupulously careful, and I'm still nervous as hell.

There has definitely been an increase in traffic since March, when the working from home and closures of non essential businesses began. More people are going in to their jobs in person, obviously, because (at least until just this week), more businesses were open in person again. But there has also been an increase in the number of people driving around and patronizing non essential businesses. I get that there's a happy medium people are trying to reach based on local conditions, where people's jobs and livelihoods aren't completely lost, and where we are poised for a faster economic recovery once this stupid virus is behind us. I get that ICU admissions were pretty low all summer, and that's really the thing driving the restrictions in the US, not case numbers or even death counts.

The US never embraced the goal of some countries, like New Zealand, of getting numbers down to zero. Even if we'd had a POTUS who was worth a damn, that was probably an impossibility, given how disjointed we are in terms of government, public health, and policies.. But nonetheless, the lack of caution by people (even many who are at high risk) is astounding. It's not like people ever stopped getting sick or dying of this, even if survival is better now than in the early months of the pandemic. It was just that the numbers were steadier, so the ICUs weren't overflowing. This also helped survival rates, but death rates could tick upwards again if the ICUs are full.

I kind of get the impression that some people have sort of given up on caution entirely and are simply banking on the vaccine to save us. Which is really stupid in a country where close to half of people say they are hesitant to even get it when it becomes available.

Today we put up a cardboard Santa and a couple of little elves on the outer door of the lab where I work. Then, on my coffee break, I put masks on them. Santa was big and therefore easy, but with the elves, I had to cut up a mask, fit tiny pieces over their faces and carefully thread the loops over their pointy ears.

Oh, and as someone who has to go to work and buy groceries, I don't step out of the house without a mask on.

Speaking of being prudent, to no one’s surprise, the GOP is planning not to be.

‘It’s absolutely insanity’: Republicans blasted for spreading coronavirus at lavish DC Christmas parties

RawStory said:

On Monday, Politico reported that Republican lawmakers are spending lavishly on Christmas parties in Washington, D.C., as the COVID-19 pandemic ravages the nation.

“Some corners of the GOP, including members of Congress, are refusing to let the coronavirus intrude on their holiday gatherings and in-person fundraisers,” report Sarah Ferris, Melanie Zanona, and Daniel Lippman. “The event planning comes as the nation is battered by another brutal surge in coronavirus cases, prompting a fresh round of warnings from public health experts to hunker down and avoid group settings, particularly indoors. And it underscores the resistance by many in the GOP, led by President Donald Trump, to adjust to the new normal of the pandemic.”

According to the report, “Groups of dozens or more people have flocked to congressional hangouts such as the nearby Capitol Hill Club, where a group of Texas Republicans organized a meet-and-greet to honor their seven incoming freshmen members the week before Thanksgiving … GOP members have also gathered at swanky downtown restaurants. That includes a holiday party Monday night hosted by Rep. Billy Long (Mo.) in a backroom at Joe’s Seafood, an upscale surf ‘n turf restaurant near the White House, according to a person familiar with the plans. The same evening, Rep. Kevin Brady hosted a ‘small’ dinner at the same restaurant for all the outgoing Texas Republicans, his office confirmed.”

This comes as Trump himself is planning to host a number of in-person Christmas parties, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has planned a 900-person gathering even while telling federal employees to put off “non mission-critical events.”

“I think it’s absolutely insanity and I think it’s dangerous, it’s irresponsible, it’s insane,” said Washington veteran journalist Sally Quinn. “And I think just by example, they’re going to cause more people to die because people will look at that and say, ‘Oh, it must be okay.’”

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Ya think??

So this guy ( link ) gets a free pass, heh?

-cb