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Medical: My patient caught Covid-19 twice

Introversion

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https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Vox said:
“Wait. I can catch Covid twice?” my 50-year-old patient asked in disbelief. It was the beginning of July, and he had just tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, for a second time — three months after a previous infection.

While there’s still much we don’t understand about immunity to this new illness, a small but growing number of cases like his suggest the answer is “yes.”

Covid-19 may also be much worse the second time around. During his first infection, my patient experienced a mild cough and sore throat. His second infection, in contrast, was marked by a high fever, shortness of breath, and hypoxia, resulting in multiple trips to the hospital.

Recent reports and conversations with physician colleagues suggest my patient is not alone. Two patients in New Jersey, for instance, appear to have contracted Covid-19 a second time almost two months after fully recovering from their first infection. Daniel Griffin, a physician and researcher at Columbia in New York, recently described a case of presumed reinfection on the This Week in Virology podcast.

It is possible, but unlikely, that my patient had a single infection that lasted three months. Some Covid-19 patients (now dubbed “long haulers”) do appear to suffer persistent infections and symptoms.

My patient, however, cleared his infection — he had two negative PCR tests after his first infection — and felt healthy for nearly six weeks.

I believe it is far more likely that my patient fully recovered from his first infection, then caught Covid-19 a second time after being exposed to a young adult family member with the virus. He was unable to get an antibody test after his first infection, so we do not know whether his immune system mounted an effective antibody response or not.

Regardless, the limited research so far on recovered Covid-19 patients shows that not all patients develop antibodies after infection. Some patients, and particularly those who never develop symptoms, mount an antibody response immediately after infection only to have it wane quickly afterward — an issue of increasing scientific concern.

What’s more, repeat infections in a short time period are a feature of many viruses, including other coronaviruses. So if some Covid-19 patients are getting reinfected after a second exposure, it would not be particularly unusual.

...
 

ChaseJxyz

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I know that the RNA(?) for sars-cov-2 has been sequenced in many cases, which has allowed us to determine how it spreads from person to person (it's here if anyone wants to be brave and wade through the data), so I'm wondering if this is being done with these cases? To figure out if it's truly a second infection or if it's the same infection making a comeback. But I've also heard how most of the immunity from catching it goes away in a few months.

Everything about it is really whack. I really appreciate you posting these, btw, my social media doesn't have a lot of people who share/discuss high-level things like this.
 

Roxxsmom

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Now that's different from another report I read about a Korean study that suggested that the patients who test positive for the virus a second time generally have much milder cases than they did the first time and aren't contagious. It's really hard to know which cases are typical or whether this woman who appears to have caught a more serious case again would be a fluke or not. We also don't know for sure that the people who test positive after testing negative aren't experiencing a resurgence instead of a reinfection. If true, this wouldn't be great news either, since it suggests many of those "mild cases" have longer term effects--something that looks increasingly likely.

It's an odd virus, and since it's so new, we are still learning new things about it every day. This is why we need to be testing and monitoring antibody levels more generally, because the more data we collect, the better we will understand the way this virus spread and the better we will understand the different ways the disease develops. All these confusing possibilities reiterate the importance of not catching or transmitting this disease in the first place. We also can't assume people who have had it once are contributing to long-term herd immunity until we get a lot more data.
 

MaeZe

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Without a genetic analysis of two different strains, no one can claim with certainty this was a new infection vs a flare up of the same infection. We don't know that some people don't have a long course with exacerbations. And in some cases all they have is continual viral shedding, no resurgence of symptoms.

That tests were negative then positive again relies completely on the specificity of the test: The negative predictive value.

Everyone (meaning researchers and lay people alike) want to jump to the conclusions we are seeing reinfection.

We don't know that until someone has a genetic analysis of one strain then a genetic analysis of infection with a second strain.
 

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This UK study may also be relevant.

The Guardian said:
People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.

In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.

Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.

“People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr Katie Doores, lead author on the study at King’s College London.

The study has implications for the development of a vaccine, and for the pursuit of “herd immunity” in the community over time.

The immune system has multiple ways to fight the coronavirus but if antibodies are the main line of defence, the findings suggested people could become reinfected in seasonal waves and that vaccines may not protect them for long.

...
 

AstronautMikeDexter

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I am not a science person but I did read that even though antibodies may wane in the months following infection, it doesn't mean that our bodies won't be prepared to fight if the virus enters a recovered person again - something about the importance of T-cells and how they can attack the virus.

This article notes that in a small sample of people, they didn't test positive for antibodies but had developed the T-cells.
 

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In a way, re-infection might be preferable as a cause for these cases, than a long-running chronic infection.

Here's my thinking. This disease is theoretically eradicable. As a thought experiment, if everyone isolated for four weeks (or something), like total and absolute isolation (again, a thought experiment, not saying this is realistic), we'd have everyone who recovered and a bunch of people who died--and the virus would be eradicated. Done. Gone. El zippo, baby.

No more virus. Four weeks (or whatever it is) of absolute isolation. But that's assuming these cases are reinfections, not long-term infections.

If humans form a long-term reservoir and can start shedding again after months of remission, then the thought experiment fails.
 
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ironmikezero

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A virus, like all life forms, will mutate and evolve--and can do so comparatively quickly. What might be considered a new strain, like the annually-modified flu-inoculation most doctors recommend, may be viewed as an example of the speed of such mutation/evolution.

Unfortunately, medical science is currently at a serious disadvantage and must play catch-up with Covid-19 and its anticipated variations. Simply put, too little is known and speculation runs rampant in the search for factual confirmation. However, there is no other way; the researchers must continue at full tilt, probing every possible solution.

In some cases, social and political considerations are often clouding the issues and ultimately increasing the risk of infection via public exposure (relaxed restrictions, re-booting economies, the return to normalcy, etc.). Sadly, many folks are in some form of outright denial, and are consequently part of the problem.

It might be helpful if the authorities were to get a simple message across . . . This virus is a predatory parasite that sees you as a potential host. If you breathe, you are at risk. Think of Covid-19 as hunting you--yes, you are its prey. It may behoove you to act accordingly. Best of luck . . .
 

MaeZe

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In a way, re-infection might be preferable as a cause for these cases, than a long-running chronic infection.
Sure but wishful thinking doesn't make it so.

And long term viral shedding doesn't mean always chronic illness.

... If humans form a long-term reservoir and can start shedding again after months of remission, then the thought experiment fails.
I'm not sure we are seeing viral shedding, stopping and shedding again. You have to consider the reliability or those negative tests.

CIDRAP: Evidence of prolonged COVID-19 virus shedding noted in China
Patients with COVID-19 outside of Wuhan, China, shed virus RNA for a median of 17 days, according to a retrospective cohort study published yesterday in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

Also, a study in the same journal found that third-generation transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic likely began on Jan 17 to 20 in Wuhan, then spread to the rest of Hubei province from Jan 23 to 24, while the mixed first- and second-generation transmissions interacted to worsen the outbreak.

Shedding virus RNA for as long as 6 weeks
In the first study, researchers studied the clinical factors, lab results, treatments, and outcomes of 147 adult COVID-19 patients in a single hospital in Changsha, China, the capital of Hunan province, which is adjacent to Hubei province.

Fever at hospital admission (odds ratio [OR], 5.200; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.190 to 22.726; P = 0.028), longer time from symptom onset to admission (OR, 1.740; 95% CI, 1.296 to 2.337; P < 0.001), and lengthier hospital stay (OR, 1.604; 95% CI, 1.262 to 2.040; P < 0.001) were associated with longer periods of viral RNA shedding as determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

These findings, however, do not necessarily mean that the patient was still contagious, because, unlike with virus isolation, PCR does not distinguish between the presence of live virus and non-infectious viral debris.

Median time from symptom onset to admission was 6 days (interquartile range, 3 to 10). Of the 147 patients, 127 (86%) had moderate illness, while 20 (14%) had severe illness. Length of viral RNA shedding ranged from 6 to 47 days. No patients required advanced respiratory support or died.,,,

I'm just saying, finding virus after negative tests is not clear evidence of re-infection.

People (reporters, doctors, lay persons) are simply jumping to unsupported conclusions that might make sense at first glance but aren't necessarily more than speculation.