My opinion: This is not going to lead to a civil war. There are people lining up on two sides, with and against Trump. But these aren't armies. And the military is not behind Trump, not by a long shot. The only way Trump could stay in power after losing the election would be if the military supported him en masse.
I'm wondering about the long-term trend, though.
If Trump loses (and the Senate goes down too), and it stands, there will be a lot of angry people--people who have gotten used to openly expressing their hateful views and having people in charge who validate them.
I don't think they're just going to quietly crawl back under their rocks or transform into decent human beings. We knew those people were out there before 2016, but the results of that election, and the behavior of these people after Trump's victory, made it clear they weren't just restricted to "that one crazy cousin" most families have. They make up more than a third of the US population, and they have platforms and recruitment tools they haven't prior to the 21st century.
I don't know that most of these people are full-blown fascists, but they are definitely authoritarians, or to borrow a phrase from Madeline Albright, proto fascists. They have steeped into our institutions. The police are rotten with proto fascists and their sympathizers. Look at how benignly they are responding to armed militants storming state capitals because, horrors, they are being asked to curtail optional activities and to wear masks
during a freaking pandemic. Look at how the police cheer Trump when he tells them they should rough up suspects more.
Their unions support Trump, in spite of the mess he has made of things.
They have also worked with neo Nazis in pursuit of anti fascist protesters.
Police also are refusing to enforce the Covid-19 laws, laws the POTUS opposes.
If it comes to violence in the street, we know who most of them will support.
They already have.
I don't know about the military. I think the top brass are increasingly concerned about Trump and his goals and lack of leadership, but enlisted personnel and veterans seemed to love him for the most part in 2016.
, even though he said things that were pretty darned disrespectful of veterans and former POWs. Still, some are getting cold feet. Hopefully, the troops are well disciplined and respect the oaths they took to uphold the Constitution more than Trump has. I mostly think they will, but it's possible some could rebel and side with the red hatters if things get really ugly in the streets. The police almost certainly will.
I'm worried about long term, though, because so much damage has been done to our institutions and sense of cultural purpose, in the decades prior to Trump. Biden means well, and there are signs he may be
more to the "left" than he lets on. But I don't think he can fix most of what ails our society in one term.
Even if things settle down for a while, we will still have issues with stratification of wealth, the decline in many types of jobs (and it doesn't really matter if new jobs are created by technology if they are jobs that require lots of training and involve interests and inclinations most Americans lack), lack of faith in our public institutions, and increasing mistrust of experts and scientists in an era when scientific literacy is more important than it has ever been. And institutional racism is still part of the air we all breathe. Even if its swept back under the rug, it will smolder at the base of our institutional dung heap. And our cultural values
are skewed in favor of monetizing everything--we think everything is about dollars and cents and we should treat everything as if it were a business.
