Covid-19: Coronavirus July 2020

Roxxsmom

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A new month of living in a pandemic.

This graphic is interesting. It's an interactive map, broken down by State and County, that shows where the most new Covid-19 cases are occurring per 100k population. Unsurprisingly, there is a concentration of heavily affected counties across the southern part of the US and in Arizona.


https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
 
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cbenoi1

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This graphic will mean nothing any day now in the US.

A Dire Warning From COVID-19 Test Providers
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/us-coronavirus-testing-could-fail-again/613675/

The American testing supply chain is stretched to the limit, and the ongoing outbreak in the South and West could overwhelm it, according to epidemiologists and testing-company executives. While the country’s laboratories have added tremendous capacity in the past few months—the U.S. now tests about 550,000 people each day, a fivefold increase from early April—demand for viral tests is again outpacing supply.

If demand continues to accelerate and shortages are not resolved, then turnaround times for test results will rise, tests will effectively be rationed, and the number of infections that are never counted in official statistics will grow. Any plan to contain the virus will depend on fast and accurate testing, which can identify newly infectious people before they set off new outbreaks. Without it, the U.S. is in the dark.

In other words the rise in cases will plateau for lack of testing capacity and not because some politicians stopped the spread of the virus out of sheer will.

-cb
 

Roxxsmom

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This graphic will mean nothing any day now in the US.

A Dire Warning From COVID-19 Test Providers
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/us-coronavirus-testing-could-fail-again/613675/



In other words the rise in cases will plateau for lack of testing capacity and not because some politicians stopped the spread of the virus out of sheer will.

-cb

Even if testing is tapped out everywhere, the places that have the highest percentage of positive cases will be indicated as having a higher incidence of new cases, I assume. That's of some use. But yes, all our case number data, new case data, and even death data, will still be under reporting what's actually out there.

At some point in the future, it may be possible for scientists to extrapolate the true infection and case numbers from the data representing a relatively small fraction of the US population, but that will require a lot of information we don't have yet. What boggles my mind are the officials (and health care experts) who have been insisting all along that we don't want or need that information. Aggressive testing and contact tracing are yielding information on how this virus is most likely to spread. It tells us things like we probably don't need to bleach our groceries, but we should wear masks when we have to be around people for prolonged periods, particularly indoors, and that we should avoid gyms, bars, choir practices and other places where there is a lot of heavy breathing going on.

If we don't collect as many data as we can, it's going to be really frustrating for future historians, just as it is now for people studying the Great Influenza pandemic with estimates of absolute case, and death, numbers that vary so widely. Surely we can do better a century later!
 
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MaeZe

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This graphic will mean nothing any day now in the US.

A Dire Warning From COVID-19 Test Providers
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/us-coronavirus-testing-could-fail-again/613675/



In other words the rise in cases will plateau for lack of testing capacity and not because some politicians stopped the spread of the virus out of sheer will.

-cb

You can't hide overwhelmed hospitals.

The article is disturbing though, because one would think increasing numbers of cases in FL, AZ, TX, CA, etc would be their problem. It appeared there was an adequate supply of testing materials and PPE. But it turns out areas of the country not managing their increasing numbers of cases are now affecting everyone.

I'm listening now to Adm. Giroir, head of HHS blame the increase on "young people" and not on states opening up too soon. Earlier today in a press briefing, Mnuchin blamed the states for the failure of opening their economies 'properly' because the feds gave them 'guidelines'.

In the press briefing, Mnuchin and Kudlow repeatedly denied and dodged questioning of their's, POTUS' and Pence's claims that things were under control and going swimmingly. When pressed, they ended the briefing.

The Hill: Mnuchin: White House 'absolutely' does not regret pushing states to reopen

This sums it up:
Asked at a Thursday press appearance whether the White House had any regrets about encouraging speedy reopenings, Mnuchin replied, “No, absolutely not. I think we’ve had a very careful plan working with the states — this is primarily the states’ responsibility — but working with the states.”

Right now after being shown clip after clip of police brutality and attacks on the press during the protests, Jim Jordan immediately started in on "Democrat Mayors and Democrat governors..."

I have the sound off at the moment because I have heard Jordan's faux outrage enough times I don't need to hear him again.
 
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Introversion

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Here for the "other side" argument on Texas' recent order to wear masks for the safety of Texans, I give you: Texans...

'We don't live in a communist country!': battle over masks rages in Texas

The Guardian said:
The driver license mega center in Fort Worth closed abruptly, just minutes before 1pm on Tuesday. Staff removed the two tables outside the entrance that recorded all visitors’ contact information, health histories and performed temperature checks.

Since reopening on 3 June, the facility had spaced seats inside to meet social distancing guidelines, cleaned surfaces regularly and only served those who booked appointments online. All workers wore masks, and anybody allowed in was required to wear a face covering. But despite the precautions, a Covid-19 case had been reported there.

One of the people turned away was Laurie Smith, 50. She is an administrative employee at a local church, where she is also a member, and calls mandatory mask requirements a sign of “sad” government manipulation. “My college-age kids are able to follow the recommendations without questioning it, but my husband and I are of a different generation, and we value our liberty to be able to make our own choices. So we question it more than they do,” she said.

Her daughter shook her head silently in the passenger seat but did not say anything. Neither of them wore a mask.

The science of wearing masks to prevent the spread of coronavirus seems to be largely settled, but the politics around it is still raging, especially in conservative strongholds like Texas. Stores, churches, small businesses, government offices and other institutions across the state are grappling with how to enforce public health rules without alienating those who disagree.

...

I wonder how many of the anti-maskers wear seat belts? If they do, why? Are they communists or something?

How many drive on the proper side of the road? If they do, why? Don't they realize that our holy Founding Fathers died for their freedom to drive anywhere they please?

How many drink water rather than used motor oil? Clean water is a liberal hoax in pursuit of establishing communism, don't they know this?
 
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MaeZe

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In the above mentioned hearing on police violence against journalists and peaceful protesters, the ever-annoying, faux-outraged Jordan has claimed that governors ordering lockdowns and mask wearing is equivalent to suppression of peaceful protesters and reporters' rights to cover protests.


Meanwhile, Herman Cain (nine nine nine) and at least one reporter who attended Trump's Tulsa rally have COVID 19. Cain is in the hospital.

:popcorn:


Edited to add: calling mandatory masks an infringement on a person's rights is classic manufactured outrage, ginned up specifically for political purposes. It's tragic.
 
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Lyv

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On June 29, Herman Cain learned he had coronavirus. On July 1, 2020, Herman Cain posted an anti-mask tweet. Today, he's taking up a hospital bed, further straining a healthcare system he is partly responsible for straining.

In Atlanta:

When it comes to critical care beds, the district reports being at 85 percent capacity. Even 81 percent of the beds in the general population are currently being used.

Dr. Danny Branstetter, Wellstar Health System Medical Director of Infection Prevention admitted those numbers sound concerning, but says the hospital normally operates at those levels, if not higher. The difference is hospitals tend to have a steady flow of patients, so capacity doesn't change much up or down. COVID-19 has the threat of creating an abnormal surge.

Houston:

At Lyndon B. Johnson Hospital on Sunday, the medical staff ran out of both space for new coronavirus patients and a key drug needed to treat them. With no open beds at the public hospital, a dozen COVID-19 patients who were in need of intensive care were stuck in the emergency room, awaiting transfers to other Houston area hospitals, according to a note sent to the staff and shared with reporters.

Arizona:

Arizona is now under "Crisis Standards of Care'. Soon, healthcare workers may have to start following triage protocols.

This could mean health care workers will have to decide who meets the criteria to get treatment for a serious illness which is not limited to COVID-19.


"What will be happening is that doctors will two kinds of evaluations," Will Humble said. "No. 1 is a clinical evaluation to determine how acute is this patient's medical condition and how close they are to multiorgan system failure."


Former Arizona Department of Health Services Director Will Humble said doctors will have to prioritize patients using a point system that follows a four-step process. A stark reality for some patients whose care is dependent on how they score.

So, death panels.

It's a shame one of those evaluations isn't of a patient's social media history. If they posted that masks are fascism or that the attended a coronavirus party or Trump rally, it should count against you. I am almost sure I don't really mean that. But I despise the people who made this pandemic exponentially worse than it could have and should have been.

I'm a very long-term childhood cancer survivor. I was diagnosed in 1977 and back then, the treatment I got was new, and it's why I have pages and pages of diagnoses, two terminal (I used to joke that it would take three to kill me, but I've had three and apparently, I am immortal). I have a lot of friends who have a similar history and also have many "late effects." While I would not take treatment other than comfort measures, many of them are healthier but would still not make the cut when medical care is rationed. All because the worst, most corrupt people are in charge and there are a lot of credulous or just plain hateful people who follow them. I'm beyond angry. I'm beyond scared for them.
 
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Roxxsmom

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Here for the "other side" argument on Texas' recent order to wear masks for the safety of Texans, I give you: Texans...

'We don't live in a communist country!': battle over masks rages in Texas



I wonder how many of the anti-maskers wear seat belts? If they do, why? Are they communists or something?

How many drive on the proper side of the road? If they do, why? Don't they realize that our holy Founding Fathers died for their freedom to drive anywhere they please?

How many drink water rather than used motor oil? Clean water is a liberal hoax in pursuit of establishing communism, don't they know this?

I strongly suspect some of them don't wear seat belts, or they were among the people who whined and whined about it when the laws were changed. I'll bet a higher than normal percentage of these people still smoke too, and were among those who whined about smoking bans in restaurants and bars and in other public spaces. They have no sense of community or courtesy for others at all. It's all about what they want.

Seriously, though, it's ridiculous, and it's time for politicians to stop pandering to and pussyfooting around these people in case they hurt their poor little feelings. We need more who lay it on the line without mincing words. Do these people want the economy to improve? Do they want to reduce government spending on medicare and medicaid? Do they want as many people as possible to be able to go to work and conduct business? All of these are questions I assume conservatives would be inclined to say yes to. So they should stop whining and wear the effing masks!

And even if they honestly and sincerely believe the science behind it is BS, in spite of all the data to the contrary, is it really worth all the whining and kvetching? Of all the political issues out there, is this really the hill they want to die on? People like this are so childish, but maybe everyone else is cowardly for not calling them out and standing up to them more often. Not one person on that plane said anything to the man, not even the flight attendants. It was a child who pointed it out to the person who posted the image on twitter.
 
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cbenoi1

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Edited to add: calling mandatory masks an infringement on a person's rights is classic manufactured outrage, ginned up specifically for political purposes. It's tragic.

Masks protect others more than oneself, so having to wear a mask encroaches one's personal rights. This is an individual vs community issue and which one takes precedence.

The virus doesn't care either way.

-cb
 

frimble3

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More businesses should be bold enough to post a sign "If you believe you are free to not wear a mask, you are also free to GO ELSEWHERE!"
If every bar and liquor store in a town did this, I'm betting the anti-mask faction would break ranks.
 

Roxxsmom

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Masks protect others more than oneself, so having to wear a mask encroaches one's personal rights. This is an individual vs community issue and which one takes precedence.

The virus doesn't care either way.

-cb

There is some evidence masks actually do provide some protection to the wearer, though it is less than the benefit to others. Of course, these folks don't care about that anyway, because they figure the virus isn't dangerous to people like them, or is a hoax, or they just get a perverse pleasure out of being assholes that makes any risk worth it.
 

frimble3

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BTW, God loves the Lower Mainland of BC, and our Provincial Health Officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry. Possibly to make Dr. Henry's life easier, it rained all day on July 1 (our national holiday). It was cold and wet and rainy, dashing the hopes of those who might otherwise have crowded onto beaches, into parks and on sidewalks to eat at those places that recently got patios because of COVID.
If Americans have bad weather on July 4 - it's your lucky day!
 

Chris P

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There is some evidence masks actually do provide some protection to the wearer, though it is less than the benefit to others. Of course, these folks don't care about that anyway, because they figure the virus isn't dangerous to people like them, or is a hoax, or they just get a perverse pleasure out of being assholes that makes any risk worth it.

What's making me nervous is that people are seeing skyrocketing infection numbers and (so far) only a small bump in deaths and think "Oh, they know how to treat it now, so at worst it's going to be like a really bad cold." (Click here and go to the second graphic down and toggle between cases and deaths). Combine that with burn out and complacency and things will only get worse. They look at the infections/numbers ratio and forget it takes a while for people to die. I hope we don't see deaths jump, but I think we are going to.
 
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sandree

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BTW, God loves the Lower Mainland of BC, and our Provincial Health Officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry. Possibly to make Dr. Henry's life easier, it rained all day on July 1 (our national holiday). It was cold and wet and rainy, dashing the hopes of those who might otherwise have crowded onto beaches, into parks and on sidewalks to eat at those places that recently got patios because of COVID.
If Americans have bad weather on July 4 - it's your lucky day!

We haven’t had many lucky days lately. Apparently the universe has determined that we need a few more good whacks on the head to knock any sense into us.
 

cbenoi1

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There is some evidence masks actually do provide some protection to the wearer, though it is less than the benefit to others. Of course, these folks don't care about that anyway, because they figure the virus isn't dangerous to people like them, or is a hoax, or they just get a perverse pleasure out of being assholes that makes any risk worth it.

Yes, plenty of assholes around.

https://www.facebook.com/295644160460352/posts/3454998774524859

-cb
 

lizmonster

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Did the weekly grocery shopping this morning. The store was crowded. Everyone wore masks, but there were a lot of exposed noses, and people were yakking and ignoring distancing rules, and going down aisles against the arrows and laughing about it (not maliciously - more like "Oops! Aren't I silly?").

Massachusetts had been doing well, but the last week things seemed to be creeping up slightly. Given the cavalier attitudes I saw today, I expect that to continue. Fortunately the numbers are still pretty low, and maybe the governor will close things down again before they get seriously spiky.

It's infuriating. But with my brother in FL, MA isn't at the top of my worry list.
 

cbenoi1

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We haven’t had many lucky days lately. Apparently the universe has determined that we need a few more good whacks on the head to knock any sense into us.

Unfortunately it's the nurses and the doctors are the ones getting whacks on the head these days with ICUs filling to capacity.

Reality will hit two to three weeks from now. Exhausted medical personnel with not enough caffeine and WakeUps to go around. Scraping for PPE inventories. The inhuman position of having to decide who lives and who dies. Body bags heading to landfills or piling up in the parking lot. New-York, not so long ago.

Experience is a shitty teacher because she gives the test first and the lesson comes after. If you survive the test.

-cb
 

MaeZe

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... New-York, not so long ago.

Experience is a shitty teacher because she gives the test first and the lesson comes after. If you survive the test.

-cb
And for whatever failure of evolution, we don't seem to learn from the other guy's experience. We have to experience it ourselves. When it was in NY, that was the other guys; we're not like them because[fill in the blank].
 

Lyv

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Massachusetts had been doing well, but the last week things seemed to be creeping up slightly. Given the cavalier attitudes I saw today, I expect that to continue. Fortunately the numbers are still pretty low, and maybe the governor will close things down again before they get seriously spiky.

It's infuriating. But with my brother in FL, MA isn't at the top of my worry list.
I hope your brother stays well. I moved back to MA from FL in 2002 and have many friends there. Very concerned for them. So far, they're all ok. My friend in Sweden has been ill for months. She has had to be hospitalized, but she has had fevers and felt awful for months. I'm worried sick for our niece and her family and other friends in TX.

I'm glad your part of the state is doing better than mine. My county's numbers are good, but my neighborhood, gah! No distancing, no masks, gatherings never stopped. Tomorrow will no doubt look the same as last year, except that the neighborhood association isn't holding any of our usual events.

I worry about us entering Phase 3 next week, because people just aren't compliant enough for it to be safe and I've seen the numbers rise, too. We had to have National Grid (gas company) in last week. They put in a new gas main and had to hook us up. They've been leaving notes on doors when they've needed us not to park in our driveways or when the road would be closed. But to schedule the hookup? Crew member rings my doorbell. No mask. I step onto the porch and he waits, expecting me to open the door. He's on the top step, right on the other side of the door. I look as high risk as I am (5'5", 76 pounds, I mean, what would you think?). I said, through the door, "I've been watching you all work for weeks with no masks or distancing and you want me to open the door? You come to my door with no mask!" He said, "We'll wear masks when we come inside." He masked up but since we could hear each other, we talked through the door. They were able to enter and exit the basement through the bulkhead, so they never came into the actual house, but I asked them to still wear masks because air circulates. He assured me they would. I could see through the window when they entered. One had no mask, one wore a mask below his nostrils, and one wore a mask properly. I was glad we'd put tape around the basement door, which may sound excessive, but I'm glad we did.
 

Moonchild

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It's a shame one of those evaluations isn't of a patient's social media history. If they posted that masks are fascism or that the attended a coronavirus party or Trump rally, it should count against you. I am almost sure I don't really mean that.

No one would blame you if you did mean it.