COVID-19 | HK's 3rd Wave, 108 Cases in 1 Day (#81) (was: The Other Side)

Snitchcat

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Today (27 Apr 2020) was the first day I went back to work in the office full time. It was great seeing all my colleagues again, though noisy; however, spirits were high as was productivity and focus. On the other hand, we're all still wearing masks, keeping our distance (as much as possible), and practicing hand hygiene, and desk/equipment disinfection. We're also maintaining these practices at home.

In the last four months, I've seen the office for about a maximum of 4 weeks all told.

So, what's changed?

  • Restaurants are returning to full operating capacity, with precautions, like screens between booths, sealed cutlery, etc. But few people are eating out.
  • Masks are still being worn -- it's the norm here now.
  • Disinfection practices are still in place.
  • Temperature vetting is normal now.
  • Gathering of a maximum of 4 people still -- this restriction will continue for a while yet.
  • Various private healthcare practices (e.g., walk-in clinics) have switched to earlier operating hours to avoid rush hours for their staff and patients.
  • Alcohol still isn't being sold in pubs / bars / restaurants (this is in line with the max. of 4 people in a group).
  • Social distancing is still being practiced as far as possible for this population density (6,659 people per square kilometer in HK (yr. 2020)).

This is the first day (27 Apr) the city has opened to "normal" after approximately 4 months of voluntary self-isolation.

Current COVID-19 cases: 1,038

Recovered: 772

Deaths: 4

No changes for about 4 days now.
 
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MaeZe

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This is wonderful news. And precautions sound reasonable.

Do you think the true numbers of cases are being reported?

Does it seem like the human reservoir of COVID-19 is small in Hong Kong now?

What is the country (to me it's more of a country than not) doing about migrations and visitors?
 
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Abbeysroadlesstaken

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Our county reported two deaths and a neighboring county reported 1. Now the government spreadsheet is reporting no death in either county. I was a grant writer once upon a time, so I know a bit about how to employ smoke and mirrors to data. I keep looking at what they shovel out but I know it's worse than they report. A lot of locals believe that the numbers are bloated, I'm seeing the opposite. We're still closed up. Some non-essential business have permission to start up with precautions May 1. I suspect some people will run out while others wait it out. I'm in the latter camp.
 

MaeZe

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I'm curious about this as well. 4 months isolated... I can't imagine that.I hope it isn't what's in store for my country.

Barbados, your country has such an opportunity to screen people coming in. But I'm sure there'll be economic issues/barriers.
 

Snitchcat

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This is wonderful news. And precautions sound reasonable.

Do you think the true numbers of cases are being reported?

True numbers? I'm sceptical. It's more I believe that the diagnosed numbers are being reported; how many have fallen by the wayside is anyone's guess. I suspect we'll find out when the next census comes through.

Does it seem like the human reservoir of COVID-19 is small in Hong Kong now?
From my perspective, the number of reported cases is about the same as SARS 2003: 1750-ish (SARS) vs 1038 (COVID-19). (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539564/)
Deaths: For COVID-19, the number of deaths is tiny (4) compared to the 300-ish deaths for SARS. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#Hong_Kong)

What is the country (to me it's more of a country than not) doing about migrations and visitors?
There were 3 crossings open during the four months of voluntary isolation, but recently (about Friday, 24 Apr), a fourth border was re-opened. All arrivals who're HK residents still need to be tested, regardless of the route they chose. And they still have to be quarantined for 14 days. However, we've added testing upon the end of the 14-day quarantine to help catch asymptomatic cases.

Non-residents of HK are banned from entering HK; transit is also prohibited. I don't know when this restriction will be lifted, but I'm not expecting it any time soon.
 
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Snitchcat

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I'm curious about this as well. 4 months isolated... I can't imagine that.I hope it isn't what's in store for my country.

We were never in isolation, per se; not even lockdown.

HK has been very fortunate during this pandemic: most of our shops and most of our services, etc., were still open throughout the last four months, though restricted. It was the HK citizens who took the initiative: we voluntarily stay at home, worked from home, did not attend massive gatherings, wore (and still wear) masks, followed (and still follow) strict hygiene and disinfection processes. The government did nothing to facilitate that.

Even now, after no more confirmed cases for the past few days, we stay at home (unless we need to go grocery/daily necessities shopping), don't gather in large groups (the HK gov belated stated that group gatherings can comprise no more than 4 people).
 

Snitchcat

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Our county reported two deaths and a neighboring county reported 1. Now the government spreadsheet is reporting no death in either county. I was a grant writer once upon a time, so I know a bit about how to employ smoke and mirrors to data. I keep looking at what they shovel out but I know it's worse than they report. A lot of locals believe that the numbers are bloated, I'm seeing the opposite. We're still closed up. Some non-essential business have permission to start up with precautions May 1. I suspect some people will run out while others wait it out. I'm in the latter camp.

I highly recommend waiting it out.

With the exception of 3 border crossings, all borders were shut down mid/late Jan 2020. Only recently (since about Friday (24 Apr)) has a 4th border been re-opened. However the 14-day quarantine is still in place. But, non-residents are still banned from entering HK (https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202004/06/P2020040600671.htm) (https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...onavirus-hong-kong-can-consider-easing-social)

The hopeful thing is the secondary school exams: Secondary school exams are happening now (delayed since 27 Mar), though social distancing (another thing the HK gov was uselessly tardy on) means candidates face confusing logistics for the exam venue (some arrived at 6am for an 8:30am exam just to navigate these logistics (https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1522919-20200427.htm)).
 

Snitchcat

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The first day back at the office full time for around 50% of the government staff and other businesses.

Heightened hygiene practices, social distancing, and temperature assessment remain in place, especially face masks and publicly-accessible hand sanitisers. Everyone also carries individual hand sanitisers and disinfectant wipes. Otherwise, everything's normal. Up to and including a break down on one of the subway lines. :tongue Go figure, lol.

How does it feel to be back to "normal"? A relief. Like a weight has somewhat lifted. The weight is still there, but it's not so oppressive any more.

Essentially, the COVID-19 tunnel exit is in sight, though there is still a distance to go. However, it's not all doom and gloom.

The keys to the community surviving without extreme reactions: Patience, cooperation, compassion, and self-awareness.

Total time spent in voluntary quarantine for Hong Kong: 4.5 months, approx.
Total time spent in enforced quarantine for Mainland China: 5 months, approx.
 

MaeZe

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Sadly, I fear return to normal in the US will be delayed by our horrid POTUS and some of the alt-right people stirring up division.
 

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Here in the UK there is talk about lifting restrictions. Will be interesting to see how places like Hong Kong cope with things out of 'lockdown'. I know you said it wasn't true lockdown, but it is the only word I can think of to describe the situation.

The UK has only been in lockdown for what? 7 weeks? (I've lost count!)

Our numbers are falling but not drastically. I myself know 3 people who have died from it. Whilst I am eager for the kids to go back to school (they are doing my nut in now!) I have also seen covid19 in operation and it is nasty. I would hate for anyone else I know catching it.

I may be naive, or gullible, but I am putting my faith and trust in the government to do the right thing at the right time. I don't think we will truly know what is the right thing or the right time until after the fact though. But they have access to a lot more information from more qualified experts than I do. Though I do have access to about 5 million experts on FaceBook ;)

I am so glad that things are slowly getting back to normal Snitch. I just hope we have a vaccine or some other treatment soon. I fear I will forever be stepping back when someone comes near me!
 

Snitchcat

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Here in the UK there is talk about lifting restrictions. Will be interesting to see how places like Hong Kong cope with things out of 'lockdown'. I know you said it wasn't true lockdown, but it is the only word I can think of to describe the situation.

Restrictions?

So far, everyone is maintaining all the hygiene practices, distancing where possible, and avoiding anyone not wearing a mask or not wearing one properly. Take away is still the preferred meal habit when at work, as is cooking dinner at home.

The UK has only been in lockdown for what? 7 weeks? (I've lost count!)
Yes, 7 weeks or so; about the same as the USA.

Our numbers are falling but not drastically. I myself know 3 people who have died from it. Whilst I am eager for the kids to go back to school (they are doing my nut in now!) I have also seen covid19 in operation and it is nasty. I would hate for anyone else I know catching it.

Sorry to hear that.

I may be naive, or gullible, but I am putting my faith and trust in the government to do the right thing at the right time. I don't think we will truly know what is the right thing or the right time until after the fact though. But they have access to a lot more information from more qualified experts than I do. Though I do have access to about 5 million experts on FaceBook ;)

Hmm... I don't trust the Tory government at all. They've screwed people over too much and they're in it for themselves; OTOH, labour doesn't have a strong leader (not after Corbyn retired). That said, yes, I agree they have access to lots of experts and information, but that doesn't mean they'll listen or do anything with the data.

Personally, I'd recommend keeping up extreme hygiene practices, including masks, and protecting yourself and those you love.

I am so glad that things are slowly getting back to normal Snitch. I just hope we have a vaccine or some other treatment soon. I fear I will forever be stepping back when someone comes near me!

I read somewhere that a vaccine normally takes about 18 months to develop and test; that's a long time to keep up all these practices. However, I'd rather wait for, and avoid people, for almost two years to get a working vaccine than to have it rushed through and not work or only be good for a minority.
 

Snitchcat

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Sadly, I fear return to normal in the US will be delayed by our horrid POTUS and some of the alt-right people stirring up division.

A delay may actually be beneficial in this case -- the number of infections will continue to decrease, making it safer to return to normal. And if the delay means a few more months of lockdown / restrictions, then that also means more people will not be exposed to COVID-19. (Negatives of such a delay also acknowledged.)
 

MaeZe

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Not the kind of delay I meant. Delay getting back to normal, not delay staying on lock down longer. More than a few governors are giving way to political pressure to open things up too soon. We won't see a national decrease in numbers of deaths for a while I fear.
 

JJ Litke

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Like MaeZe said, it’s not a delay of ending the restrictions, just the opposite. The right wing is screaming for restrictions to end, so they started opening things back up again. That wouldn’t be so bad if people would follow basic protocols like distancing and masks, but a lot of people just aren’t doing it. As a result, we’re already starting into a second wave.

This really sucks. We don’t have to sacrifice people’s health and lives to open businesses, we could protect people AND have open business. But a lot of people are so damn upset at the very idea of having to wear masks that they’re resorting to threats and violence.
 
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Roxxsmom

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I do have a question about re-opening restaurants: how does one eat with a mask on? I haven't really seen this addressed in the US, aside from the guidelines about requiring at least 6 feet between tables. The screens make sense, but what about ventilation. Maybe having an exhaust fan above each partially enclosed booth that sucks the air directly to the outside? Even so, there's going to be some re-circulation within the room.

I do miss going out to restaurants. It's something my spouse and I did once a week for a sort of "date night," but it doesn't seem like this can safely be a part of our normal lives again for quite some time. Delivery meals or take out just aren't the same.

Not the kind of delay I meant. Delay getting back to normal, not delay staying on lock down longer. More than a few governors are giving way to political pressure to open things up too soon. We won't see a national decrease in numbers of deaths for a while I fear.

I think you're right, and evidently so does the Trump Administration, which has generated an internal report projecting a rise in the daily death toll to around 3000 by the beginning of June and a total death toll of well over 100k. All of this is because many states are not following the established guidelines for when it is safe to re-open.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5

Mad King Donnie, of course, doesn't want to hear this and is already pushing back against it.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...port-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll

I fear we won't see the other side in the US for a long time.
 
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Snitchcat

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Not the kind of delay I meant. Delay getting back to normal, not delay staying on lock down longer. More than a few governors are giving way to political pressure to open things up too soon. We won't see a national decrease in numbers of deaths for a while I fear.

Like MaeZe said, it’s not a delay of ending the restrictions, just the opposite. The right wing is screaming for restrictions to end, so they started opening things back up again. That wouldn’t be so bad if people would follow basic protocols like distancing and masks, but a lot of people just aren’t doing it. As a result, we’re already starting into a second wave.

This really sucks. We don’t have to sacrifice people’s health and lives to open businesses, we could protect people AND have open business. But a lot of people are so damn upset at the very idea of having to wear masks that they’re resorting to threats and violence.

Oh, ok; got it. Sorry, I misunderstood.

Yes, I agree that there will be a delay in returning to changed normal. I'm sorry you have to go through this trial of idiocy. :(

Masks are beneficial; I don't understand how people are so against them. Is it appearance? Or just general obtuseness and sense of entitlement?

I do have a question about re-opening restaurants: how does one eat with a mask on? I haven't really seen this addressed in the US, aside from the guidelines about requiring at least 6 feet between tables. The screens make sense, but what about ventilation. Maybe having an exhaust fan above each partially enclosed booth that sucks the air directly to the outside? Even so, there's going to be some re-circulation within the room.

I do miss going out to restaurants. It's something my spouse and I did once a week for a sort of "date night," but it doesn't seem like this can safely be a part of our normal lives again for quite some time. Delivery meals or take out just aren't the same.

Mask & Eating: You have to take the mask off to eat. The sushi restaurant I go to provides a paper bag for you to put your mask in; you can discard it, or reuse the mask. Otherwise, I recommend bringing your own ziplock bag to store your mask. The mask comes off after the food is served and goes back on immediately after finishing the meal (includes drinks, etc.).

Ventilation: I'm not sure what measures the States can take regarding this. Here in HK, we have air flowing all the time in the buildings: the a/c system takes out the air and replaces it with fresh air drawn from the outdoors so we get air circulated all the time. Also, exhaust air is vented away from the air intake vents. And combined with the sanitising and cleaning, the air is good.

I think you're right, and evidently so does the Trump Administration, which has generated an internal report projecting a rise in the daily death toll to around 3000 by the beginning of June and a total death toll of well over 100k. All of this is because many states are not following the established guidelines for when it is safe to re-open.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5

Mad King Donnie, of course, doesn't want to hear this and is already pushing back against it.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...port-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll

I fear we won't see the other side in the US for a long time.

That's a truly depressing forecast, but I'm thinking the same thing. I'm not hopeful that governors will reinstate the lockdown / restrictions after re-opening things, but then again, hope springs eternal? I'm upset that the second lockdown will occur because the reality of preventable deaths finally hits home. :(
 

Roxxsmom

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There's a frustrating situation, similar to what happened during Y2K. A problem is identified, one that has potentially catastrophic consequences. People freak out. Meanwhile, some do what they can to prevent the issue. Then when the catastrophe is averted, or is greatly reduced, people say, "Geez, we've been had by all those people insisting there was a problem when clearly it wasn't that bad after all." Of course, the measures taken to avert the problem were what made it less severe.

During Y2K, the problem was averted by programmers, working behind the scenes, and the average person really didn't make anything in the way of sacrifices. Even so, there was some anger by people who thought they'd been had. With this pandemic, though, the measures taken to avert the worst-case scenario were more noticeable, and onerous, to the average person. So when things didn't get as bad as they would have without any social distancing or forced closures in most parts of the country, some people not only feel they've been had, they are incredibly angry. Seems like we're just awful at making connections between our own behavior and the big picture. We also have trouble knowing, or even imagining, what it really would have been like without these unpleasant sacrifices. Even the images of New York City on the evening news were just too abstract and far removed for most Americans to relate to.

I fear you're right, Snitchcat, that it will be hard to convince people to go back to the highest level of social distancing, and to close businesses down again, if we get a nasty second wave. At that point most people will probably feel too jaded to stand for it, and they'll just throw their hands up and let the deaths rack up, especially since a disproportionate number of deaths in the US will be among the poor, POC, and the elderly, people many in our society don't empathize with already, and whom the wealthy people who really pull the strings have convinced many Americans are an excessive drain on our resources.
 
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frimble3

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B.C. is dipping it's toes into the water of 'loosening up', but very slowly, in stages, and checking at each stage to see what's happening. They will not be re-opening most schools 'til the Fall and people will be allowed 'small' gatherings, I gather half-a-dozen or so, and they are re-opening some provincial parks. As long as people shape up, social distance, wear their masks and the numbers stay down. People go nuts cavorting in groups, not wearing masks, and general idiocy, and back come the restrictions.

There is now some space in the hospitals, so some regular surgeries will happen as well.

Link here to actual COVID update: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-may-6-1.5556699
 

mccardey

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Masks are beneficial; I don't understand how people are so against them. Is it appearance? Or just general obtuseness and sense of entitlement?
Again. Many countries (not China, which manufactures most masks and was canny enough to buy back huge shipments of them before announcing the pandemic was a thing) are facing a shortage of effective masks. So the right thing to do in those countries is to *not* wear them, and instead *not* go out unless it's terribly terribly necessary. That way, they can be left for Health Workers and the already ill.

Or perhaps you meant to say "In countries with no shortage of effective masks, people should wear them."

Gee, I get tired of the sideways abuse from countries that don't have a mask shortage, or that would prefer to believe that you're "safe enough" with a bit of cotton tied around your face, all the evidence notwithstanding..
 

MaeZe

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...Masks are beneficial; I don't understand how people are so against them. Is it appearance? Or just general obtuseness and sense of entitlement? ...
Once the official word came down that the public didn't need masks, taking it back became even more problematic than telling people healthcare workers using them was beneficial, but the public not so much.

It's hard even now to find many sources around here that discuss the benefit in preventing spread via using masks vs preventing yourself from getting infected when you wear one.

Had there been an intelligent public health message, instead of lying to people saying the public wearing them did no good, the message could have been, don't use the medical masks, health care workers need them. But do use those non-medical masks and homemade masks to prevent the spread of the virus.

That was also problematic because the message was, one can't spread it without symptoms. Two things, it wasn't tested when that announcement from on high came down. But it fit the narrative that 'we don't need more tests'.

And two, when the evidence came out about asymptomatic spread: whoops! Once again, how do you change the recommendation you've invested your expert advice in? Easy, you just keep going along with the lie you've been spreading and tell people the masks don't protect people wearing them. And about those tests, just keep telling the public there are millions of tests out there. The states just aren't using them. And, a million tests are coming to you this week. That can be repeated week after week. No one except people needing to use the tests will notice.

Sorry, I know I'm repeating myself. But I'm still really angry. :mad:
 
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mccardey

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Sorry, I know I'm repeating myself. But I'm still really angry. :mad:
That makes perfect sense to me. The reason this pandemic continues to take hold to the extent that it does, is because of mixed messaging. It's not a one-size-fits-all experience - except to the extent that honest messaging, testing and tracing and isolating would make it so.

We're about to start reopening business slowly - very slowly - and everyone knows that no-one knows what the outcome will be. But we're meant to be buoyant! and bringing the economy back to life! with lots of positive thinking! and trust! in our politicians.

Yeah, it might work. But, boy, I'm not confident.
 
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Snitchcat

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Again. Many countries (not China, which manufactures most masks and was canny enough to buy back huge shipments of them before announcing the pandemic was a thing) are facing a shortage of effective masks. So the right thing to do in those countries is to *not* wear them, and instead *not* go out unless it's terribly terribly necessary. That way, they can be left for Health Workers and the already ill.

Or perhaps you meant to say "In countries with no shortage of effective masks, people should wear them."

Gee, I get tired of the sideways abuse from countries that don't have a mask shortage, or that would prefer to believe that you're "safe enough" with a bit of cotton tied around your face, all the evidence notwithstanding..

Thank you for clarifying. I'd like to say I meant to say "shortage of", but I'm afraid I'm not that aware of situations at times. I'm sorry, I didn't think about that.

The cotton thing? Oh, Hell no. That does nothing, IMO.

Once the official word came down that the public didn't need masks, taking it back became even more problematic than telling people healthcare workers using them was beneficial, but the public not so much.

Drat the "official word" and the lies. What good did either do but confuse and harm everyone? Rhetorical. However, I'm glad that homemade masks are useful; my friends are making them and donating them where they're needed.

That was also problematic because the message was, one can't spread it without symptoms. Two things, it wasn't tested when that announcement from on high came down. But it fit the narrative that 'we don't need more tests'.

And two, when the evidence came out about asymptomatic spread: whoops! Once again, how do you change the recommendation you've invested your expert advice in? Easy, you just keep going along with the lie you've been spreading and tell people the masks don't protect people wearing them. And about those tests, just keep telling the public there are millions of tests out there. The states just aren't using them. And, a million tests are coming to you this week. That can be repeated week after week. No one except people needing to use the tests will notice.

Sorry, I know I'm repeating myself. But I'm still really angry. :mad:

Thank you for the summary. It makes a lot of sense.

Feel free to repeat.

That makes perfect sense to me. The reason this pandemic continues to take hold to the extent that it does, is because of mixed messaging. It's not a one-size-fits-all experience - except to the extent that honest messaging, testing and tracing and isolating would make it so.

We're about to start reopening business slowly - very slowly - and everyone knows that no-one knows what the outcome will be. But we're meant to be buoyant! and bringing the economy back to life! with lots of positive thinking! and trust! in our politicians.

Yeah, it might work. But, boy, I'm not confident.

With the new dominant strain of the virus making the rounds, I really hope the re-opening stalls! This second wave thing is going to be worse than the initial infection. :(

Stay safe, everyone!
 

Snitchcat

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More thinking:

The biggest, most marked difference between During-COVID and Post-COVID is the pressure:

IME, the atmosphere during COVID was fearful, oppressive. It was dark time, the weight of the world, the universe, and more, bearing down on you. The longest of tunnels threading though a miasmic environment while trying to hold up a world or several. And all the while, you were always aware of your actions and the impact and consequences of. No relief. Constant "fight" mode; no flight, no rest. Even sleeping was restless.

Now, though, post COVID, the atmosphere has lightened. The oppressiveness has lifted, though the disease's weight remains via the continued hygiene and distancing practices. Fear of something you can't fight is no longer as forceful as it was; the fear is now a thrumming background noise that reminds you of the virus's potency. However, the long tunnel is lightening, you can see the daylight. And the daylight is welcome relief. It means your actions no longer have a deadly impact and consequences, but to keep it that way, you need to continue in "fight/ready" mode. Fortunately, though, sleep is now more restful than not.

For Hong Kong specifically, we are returning to protests. Though more than 8 people in a group (up from 4) is against the law currently. But this is a different kind of fear. A different kind of oppressiveness (not oppression).

All that to say: there is an end. And it is hopeful.
 

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Once the official word came down that the public didn't need masks, taking it back became even more problematic than telling people healthcare workers using them was beneficial, but the public not so much.

It's hard even now to find many sources around here that discuss the benefit in preventing spread via using masks vs preventing yourself from getting infected when you wear one.

Had there been an intelligent public health message, instead of lying to people saying the public wearing them did no good, the message could have been, don't use the medical masks, health care workers need them. But do use those non-medical masks and homemade masks to prevent the spread of the virus.

That was also problematic because the message was, one can't spread it without symptoms. Two things, it wasn't tested when that announcement from on high came down. But it fit the narrative that 'we don't need more tests'.

And two, when the evidence came out about asymptomatic spread: whoops! Once again, how do you change the recommendation you've invested your expert advice in? Easy, you just keep going along with the lie you've been spreading and tell people the masks don't protect people wearing them. And about those tests, just keep telling the public there are millions of tests out there. The states just aren't using them. And, a million tests are coming to you this week. That can be repeated week after week. No one except people needing to use the tests will notice.

Sorry, I know I'm repeating myself. But I'm still really angry. :mad:

I get your anger; I was apoplectic, but you gotta remember, this is the same country that told students to hide under their desks from nuclear bombs.