It's Your AW Super Tuesday Thread!

William Haskins

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current democratic delegate count going into super tuesday:

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=dem+delegate+count

candidate
delegates as of 3/1
sanders58
biden50
buttigieg26
warren 8
klobuchar7

RCP poll averages for super tuesday:

statecurrent polling leader (avg of polls)
CAsanders +17
TXsanders +8.9
NCbiden +2.2
VAsanders +5.5
MAsanders +4
COsanders +13
UTsanders +13
MNklobuchar +6
OKbiden +1
MEsanders +9
VTsanders +38
ARbloomberg +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/SuperTuesday.html
 

Gregg

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Two things come to mind reading the polls:1) can Warren continue if she can't win her own state? 2) Bloomberg has spent many millions and leads in only 1 state - by 1%. Can he continue if he doesn't do any better than that? Or will getting lots of second places be enough?
 

lizmonster

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I'm glad I'll be able to vote for Warren. I'm sorry she's likely to lose. Her proposals are every bit as "radical" as Sanders', but backed up with logic, research, and planning.

I honestly don't think it'll matter by November, but I'm voting anyway.
 

William Haskins

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latest super tuesday delegate haul predictions: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Summary:
Bernie=520
Joe=420
Others=405

CA:
Bernie=185
Joe=128
Others=102

TX:
Joe=85
Bernie=83
Others=60

NC:
Joe=45
Bernie=35
Others=30

VA:
Joe=37
Bernie=34
Others=28

MA:
Bernie=35
Joe=17
Others=39

MN:
Bernie=27
Joe=10
Others=38

CO:
Bernie=31
Joe=14
Others=22

TN:
Joe=25
Bernie=18
Others=21

AL:
Joe=25
Bernie=12
Others=15

OK:
Joe=13
Bernie=10
Others=14

AR:
Joe=10
Bernie=10
Others=11

UT:
Bernie=14
Joe=2
Others=13

ME:
Bernie=10
Joe=6
Others=8

VT:
Bernie=14
Joe=1
Others=1

AS:
Bernie=2
Joe=2
Others=2
 
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MacAllister

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And now that Mayor Pete has dropped out, does that help Biden?

Because honestly, if it comes down to Sanders or Biden, I'm going to have to hold my nose either way.
 

William Haskins

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steyer and buttigieg's departures should help biden consolidate moderate voters; bloomberg will remain a thorn in his side for now.

[h=1]Obama, Biden Spoke to Pete Buttigieg After He Quit 2020 Race
[/h] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...oke-to-pete-buttigieg-after-he-quit-2020-race


Pete Buttigieg spoke late Sunday by telephone with both Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama after Buttigieg dropped out of the presidential race, according to people familiar with the call.

Buttigieg’s departure from the race could benefit Biden’s candidacy as he looks to lock down support from the moderate wing of the Democratic Party and blunt Bernie Sanders’ momentum.

-snip-

Biden praised Buttigieg on ABC’s “Good Morning America” and said he could see him serving in his administration. He also said that Buttigieg’s exit would smooth his own path to the nomination.

“He was a real competitor. He is a real competitor. And I think it probably does,” he said.

-snip-
 

darkprincealain

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Looking at this is interesting. My favorite looks like she’s about to take a bath, but I’m still voting for her. Best of luck to those of you who have to hold your nose.
 

William Haskins

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pete is going to endorse biden (no surprise), and klobuchar has now dropped out and will do the same.

hard to predict the impact on biden's fortunes tomorrow, as the money and support following south carolina came in too late for meaningful super tuesday media buys, and as many as 40% of californians and texans voted early.

still, it bodes well that he is consolidating the middle, and if he can get bloomberg to go away but leave behind his checkbook, his post-tuesday prospects look strong.

question now: what will warren do?
 

Alpha Echo

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I was surprised Pete backed out last night and kind of disappointed. I was voting for Warren anyway, but I like Pete. I hope he tries again.

I don't think any of it matters though. I'm convinced we'll lose no matter who's on the ticket.
 

Lyv

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i think it's some good ol' fashioned ageism.

If it is, it's also ableist. Not the worst I've seen today, if it is. I use a wheelchair sometimes and everything that makes my life livable and easier is used to call people lazy or as a joke or insult. Hoping there is a different meaning I am missing, so I asked.
 

Ari Meermans

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And now that Mayor Pete has dropped out, does that help Biden?

Because honestly, if it comes down to Sanders or Biden, I'm going to have to hold my nose either way.

I voted for Warren during early voting. Not a bit sorry, none neither.

If it does come down to Sanders, I'll have to hold my nose to vote for him; with Biden, whether I have to hold my nose will depend on his VP pick.
 

Auteur

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I won't have to hold my nose to vote for Biden, but I won't be excited, either. It would be like: bleh, this is the best we can do. What a sucky world.
 

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I'm glad I'll be able to vote for Warren. I'm sorry she's likely to lose. Her proposals are every bit as "radical" as Sanders', but backed up with logic, research, and planning.

I honestly don't think it'll matter by November, but I'm voting anyway.

I sent my ballot in already, and I voted for Warren. I know some people are now saying a vote for Warren is really a vote for Biden, but I guess we'll have to see. She's currently around 15% in some of the polls, so she may pick up some more delegates if that holds. I really like her and think she's sharp and that she tempers liberal idealism with a certain amount of realism in a way Sanders doesn't.

Sadly, I think it's between Sanders and Biden now. Still not sure where the sentiment comes from that Biden has a better chance of beating Trump than Sanders does. Can someone explain this to me in light of the overall poll numbers, including numbers from some key states that cost Clinton the election last time? I'm just not inspired by Biden. I think he's even less likely than HRC was to enact true financial reform, and frankly he's come across as "out of touch" and "just plain out of it" to me in most of the debates. He's infinitely preferable to Trump, but still, can't we do better than two ancient doddering white guys who are just a bit past "getting it" to hopefully replace an ancient, doddering white guy who is downright vicious?

Hope whomever the candidate ends up being of those two, I hope he picks a running mate who is both younger and not white. I say there's a much better-than-average chance of a VP taking the helm in the next 4 years, no matter who wins the election.
 
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lizmonster

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Still not sure where the sentiment comes from that Biden has a better chance of beating Trump than Sanders does.

I think most voters don't pay as close attention as we do on this board. Biden was part of a time not so long ago when things were normal, even good. Don't discount the nostalgia factor.

Bernie's biggest liability is the Bros. They're on social media tonight putting heavy pressure on Warren to drop out of the race. I know they're not all his fans, but they leave an intensely bad taste in my mouth - much worse than anything I get from Biden, however lackluster he is.
 

AstronautMikeDexter

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It's fascinating to me watching *some* of Bernie's supporters (I, of course, know it's not all of them) still insulting Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, etc. and then in the next breath ask their supporters to switch to Bernie. Where is the logic? That's not how you build a coalition. People are freaking out about these endorsements and saying that the DNC has rigged things and are cheating, which is insane. It's called strategy! But, I guess not everybody has that (clearly). I'm just having flashbacks to 2016.

I'm voting for Warren tomorrow and I'm proud to do so. In November, I'll be proud to vote for whomever gets the nomination.
 

Roxxsmom

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I think most voters don't pay as close attention as we do on this board. Biden was part of a time not so long ago when things were normal, even good. Don't discount the nostalgia factor.

Bernie's biggest liability is the Bros. They're on social media tonight putting heavy pressure on Warren to drop out of the race. I know they're not all his fans, but they leave an intensely bad taste in my mouth - much worse than anything I get from Biden, however lackluster he is.

That's my biggest issue with Sanders, actually. He seems to inspire an unpleasant and intolerant level of fervor in a very outspoken minority of his followers, and he hasn't done enough (IMO) to establish boundaries for acceptable behavior. Seeing what happened with Trump, when Republicans insisted that the "Red Hat Dudes" were just a fringe among his supporters, then seeing how they took over the entire GOP, it makes me nervous. To be fair, Trump's rhetoric was actively encouraging the bigotry, misogyny, and xenophobia of that group. I don't see Sanders doing the same thing, exactly. I expect he's more likely to see some of those dudes turning on him when he can't deliver every promise he's made, at least not in one term, and is forced to compromise in the interest on getting anything done at all. They seem to think he's a god, different from any other politician in that respect. I shudder to think what kind of political "outsider" those guys might transfer their adulation to.

But I am deeply suspicious of anything that resembles a cult of personality with regards to politicians.

It's fascinating to me watching *some* of Bernie's supporters (I, of course, know it's not all of them) still insulting Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, etc. and then in the next breath ask their supporters to switch to Bernie. Where is the logic? That's not how you build a coalition. People are freaking out about these endorsements and saying that the DNC has rigged things and are cheating, which is insane. It's called strategy! But, I guess not everybody has that (clearly). I'm just having flashbacks to 2016.

Exactly. I get the impression that some of Sanders people hate the Democrats as much as they hate Republicans. I understand being most enthusiastic about him, if you are in favor of democratic socialism, and in being frustrated with the Democratic party's move to the center on economic issues. I share that frustration. But FFS, if they can't see that there's a gradation there, and that even "moderate" democratic candidates are a heck of a lot closer to what they allegedly want than any of the Republican candidates, they need to wake up.
 
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Diana Hignutt

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if you want to vote for someone under the age of 70 I think Gabbard is still in the race.

The only Democrat that voted "present" in the Impeachment? She's a DINO at best. I'll pass, thanks.
 

Lyv

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if you want to vote for someone under the age of 70 I think Gabbard is still in the race.
Not that I said anything that suggested I wanted to vote for someone under the age of 70, but I wouldn't vote for Tulsi at gunpoint.
 
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lizmonster

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So I went back to the (somewhat simple) Washington Post test. Still Warren for me, although she and Sanders agree on most issues, and where they disagree it tends to be on details I find arguable anyway.

And where they disagree...he's not always the more progressive of the two. Gun registration and UBI are two places where I was surprised to find Bernie was more conservative.

What really drives me crazy are the folks on Twitter who, when learning their favorite celeb doesn't have Sanders as their #1, tweet "I'm so disappointed you want me to die" like Sanders is the only candidate for universal health care. They are ALL for universal health care (well, almost - the Post lists Gabbard as "unclear" on the subject); they just disagree on the implementation.