The Covid-19 virus
- Thread starter Roxxsmom
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Thank you for the above links. I'm so glad you are still okay.
I'm very interested in your in-the-middle-of-it reports. What kinds of supplies have you bought? How are people supposed to survive if they are locked in their buildings?
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I think most large college campuses, and commuter campuses, are more likely to close down and tell students and employees to stay home while they (hopefully) disinfect the campus. I could see campuses quarantining an infected dormitory, and 100% residential schools confining all their students to dorms, but even these schools don't have dorms for faculty and staff.
The thing is, once the virus is out in the community being unknowingly swapped between people, quarantines will be less and less effective. I also don't see how they can keep up with demand for testing or place all patients in proper isolation units if it becomes widespread in the community. They took several days to test the patient from Solano county as it is, because the CDC didn't expect a case with no known contact to travelers from affected countries.
I still don't think there's any reason to panic, or to stock up on masks (which are of, at best, limited use, and at worst create a sense of false security). The biggest risk is to elderly people and people who are immuno-compromised etc. We should look to those people in our lives and make sure they are supported and have what they need to stay home for a while so they don't need to put themselves at unnecessary risk.
As for vaccination, there are vaccines for strains of coronavirus found in dogs (usually causes a relatively mild disease and is not transmissible to humans), so there's nothing about these viruses as a group that makes vaccine development problematic. Whether or not this particular strain mutates rapidly and in ways that make it hard to make a long-term vaccine is still unknown. Even if a vaccine only works for a few months, it could be beneficial, though. Flu vaccines lose their effectiveness over months in a community, as the existing virus strains mutate and new ones emerge, but they still have utility (even given relatively low compliance with seasonal flu shots).
y question is how quickly an effective corona vaccine would be in production at a level that makes it available to the masses of people who would be demanding it. Obviously, health care workers and the most vulnerable people should get first priority. I remember it took a while ten years ago when that H1N1 "surprise" flu strain came around and they had to add an extra flu shot on top of the one people had already received.
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The CA woman with unknown source COVID 19 lives in the town where the quarantined patients arrived at the Air Force base where the whistleblower said people receiving the patient did not have proper training or protective gear and the top Trump people denied it in the Congressional hearing.
Remember that whistleblower in China that was chastised and later died? You can't hide this stuff. I suppose Trump's minions gamble that you can and can get away with it.
I would like to see the Democratic Congresswoman that let the Trump official slide on this get chastised for it as well.
Remember that whistleblower in China that was chastised and later died? You can't hide this stuff. I suppose Trump's minions gamble that you can and can get away with it.
I would like to see the Democratic Congresswoman that let the Trump official slide on this get chastised for it as well.
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Further info on the above:
Federal health workers responding to coronavirus lacked training and protective gear, whistleblower alleges
Of course in line with denying what the whistleblower exposed:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/health/us-cases-coronavirus-community-transmission/index.html
Federal health workers responding to coronavirus lacked training and protective gear, whistleblower alleges
Of course in line with denying what the whistleblower exposed:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/health/us-cases-coronavirus-community-transmission/index.html
Not a clue, no sir, nothing to see here, move along.
Well, there is plenty of precedent of them barely bothering to hide stuff and then totally getting away with it, as witness the regime not only still being in power but with fewer checks than ever...
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So Trump is off on a paranoid delusion believing there's a plot to exaggerate the COVID 19 threat by the news media and the Democrats with the purpose of crashing the stock market so he'll lose reelection.
That led him to claim any official announcements about the pandemic have to be cleared by Pence.
Now we have this: The Hill: Democrats 'frustrated' by administration's coronavirus response after closed-door briefing
And:
Those public health officials are walking a tightrope, trying to get information out to the public but if they get too aggressive, Trump will shut them down altogether.
That led him to claim any official announcements about the pandemic have to be cleared by Pence.
Now we have this: The Hill: Democrats 'frustrated' by administration's coronavirus response after closed-door briefing
Who's political?
And:
Those public health officials are walking a tightrope, trying to get information out to the public but if they get too aggressive, Trump will shut them down altogether.
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Well, I'm just recovering from a bacterial throat infection. My local GP surgery isn't taking emergency appointments without a telephone call first to check if you have any fever related symptoms and whether you've recently returned from foreign travel. Then and only then will you be told to go to the surgery. I not only was allowed to attend with my fever I also got prescribed antibiotics (you only get antibiotics on the NHS if they're pretty damn sure it's a bacteria). So chances are I don't have the coronavirus.
I don't think they're going to be able to stop the coronavirus from spreading. Possibly they can slow down the spread so hospitals don't get overwhelmed. Even though it's probably no more deadly than seasonal flu, people over (I forgot the exact age) get free flu vaccines and lots of younger people (myself included) get flu vaccines paid for by employers or even if you're employer's too tight fisted for that you can get a flu vaccine in Boots for £10. So the coronavirus will cause a lot more strain on the NHS than seasonal flu. So if they can slow down the spread it would be better for everyone.
I don't think they're going to be able to stop the coronavirus from spreading. Possibly they can slow down the spread so hospitals don't get overwhelmed. Even though it's probably no more deadly than seasonal flu, people over (I forgot the exact age) get free flu vaccines and lots of younger people (myself included) get flu vaccines paid for by employers or even if you're employer's too tight fisted for that you can get a flu vaccine in Boots for £10. So the coronavirus will cause a lot more strain on the NHS than seasonal flu. So if they can slow down the spread it would be better for everyone.
Yes, the strain on the medical industry will be huge, and if the spread is not slowed or people aren't isolated, the medical industry will be overwhelmed. And the shortage of PPE will take its toll, too.
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It's 30x as deadly as the regular flu.
There are now four community spread cases in the U.S. -- that we know of, and it's kind of obviously just all over, because the U.S. has tested something like 5,000 people total, is doing no restriction or checking of incoming passengers from anyplace but China, including hot spots like NK and Italy, lets people on regular planes...
I'm sure there are ways this could have been handled more badly, but seems pretty pathetic.
I agree with most of your post (definitely a lot of things that could've been handled better, especially since China had some evidence of symptomless spreaders weeks ago that people seem to have either forgotten about or failed to take into account), but:
What's the source of that number, and how did they arrive at it? And what do they mean by 30x more deadly? 30x higher death rate? 30x more deaths overall? Either way I'd like to know where they got that number from. There are various potential problems in calculating death rates or making projections for how many people will die (you need to know the former to do the latter).
Experts aren't putting any solid numbers on the death rate yet and there are important reasons why. This BBC article explains it well https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743 The best estimates (which aren't brilliant) are around 1%. So probably not massively different to seasonal flu (within the bounds of the accuracy of the estimates).
Also it's worth noting that they also don't have accurate data for the seasonal flu death rate due to the numbers of people who don't report to their doctors that they have the flu because it's fairly mild or they're not in an at risk group. So that makes it doubly hard to compare the deadliness of the flu virus and COVID-19. But first they need to define what "deadly" even means before you can attach a number to it.
Note: sorry if this sounds pedantic, but there's a lot of panic and scaremongering in the media so I feel it's important to pass on accurate information. But if I'm wrong, I'll stand corrected with accurate, scientific sources.
Be concerned about elderly and infirm relatives. Your kids will probably get a mild illness and you'll catch it from them and be laid up for a couple of weeks. Don't visit elderly and infirm relatives unless/until everyone in your family is clear from all cold like and flu like symptoms. Order food from delivery services for your elderly relatives get them to stay in and seek immediate medical help if they get ill (for yourself too, if you're elderly on in an at risk group), and teach everyone in your family how to wash their hands properly. If you don't have kids, stay away from kids. Most people will only get a mild illness.
What's the source of that number, and how did they arrive at it? And what do they mean by 30x more deadly? 30x higher death rate? 30x more deaths overall? Either way I'd like to know where they got that number from. There are various potential problems in calculating death rates or making projections for how many people will die (you need to know the former to do the latter).
Experts aren't putting any solid numbers on the death rate yet and there are important reasons why. This BBC article explains it well https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743 The best estimates (which aren't brilliant) are around 1%. So probably not massively different to seasonal flu (within the bounds of the accuracy of the estimates).
Also it's worth noting that they also don't have accurate data for the seasonal flu death rate due to the numbers of people who don't report to their doctors that they have the flu because it's fairly mild or they're not in an at risk group. So that makes it doubly hard to compare the deadliness of the flu virus and COVID-19. But first they need to define what "deadly" even means before you can attach a number to it.
Note: sorry if this sounds pedantic, but there's a lot of panic and scaremongering in the media so I feel it's important to pass on accurate information. But if I'm wrong, I'll stand corrected with accurate, scientific sources.
Be concerned about elderly and infirm relatives. Your kids will probably get a mild illness and you'll catch it from them and be laid up for a couple of weeks. Don't visit elderly and infirm relatives unless/until everyone in your family is clear from all cold like and flu like symptoms. Order food from delivery services for your elderly relatives get them to stay in and seek immediate medical help if they get ill (for yourself too, if you're elderly on in an at risk group), and teach everyone in your family how to wash their hands properly. If you don't have kids, stay away from kids. Most people will only get a mild illness.
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On the good side, I don't think this is presenting with a severe sore throat, neandermagnon. On the bad side, it might mean your guard was down somewhere when you got it.
You are absolutely right, fear mongering with loose numbers is not helpful.
Remember there are different ways to measure just how bad this is. A lot of sources are citing a 2% fatality rate. But a closer look at the rates outside of China are much lower. That suggests there is a larger denominator in China that isn't being counted. It makes sense given people with mild illness are unlikely to go to very crowded clinics.
But another way to measure how bad is total deaths. On average flu infects about 10% of the population every year. Not everyone is susceptible every year to every strain. So spread from person to person is often blocked by people who are not susceptible.
This virus is spreading in an immunity naive population, so there are no brakes, so to speak. The total number of deaths might be very high, especially in countries with poor public health infrastructure. Given that plus the fact testing is complex and test reagents are not yet widely distributed, who knows how many cases are circulating in countries that simply don't have the ability to test for it.
India and Indonesia are reporting numbers of cases that make no sense unless they aren't testing people. And the virus may have only recently arrived on the African and South American continents. The West Coast here now has four cases with no known source (the high school student in WA does not yet have a confirmed test result). Regardless, it is spreading here through uncontrolled, unrecognized cases.
On the bright side, more and more people are being careful about limiting exposures. That provides the brakes when cases run into roadblocks with no next person to spread it to. Stop the spread it will die out. But we'll have to be meticulous about stopping the spread for many months to come given cases will continue to come in from areas where it is not well controlled.
I did stock up on supplies yesterday and I have a list of what else to get today. Dogs gotta have their biscuits.
My big worry is when to start wearing a mask (yes only partial protection) because it's embarrassing to look so paranoid, and if it breaks loose here, will I or won't I go to work? I think at some point the outpatient surgery centers will shut down, they mostly do elective surgery. I don't know what the dentists will do.
But police and fire will still have needle sticks and there will be some planning meetings I will need to attend.
Guess I'll find out.
Stay safe everyone. There are lots of things you can do.
You are absolutely right, fear mongering with loose numbers is not helpful.
Remember there are different ways to measure just how bad this is. A lot of sources are citing a 2% fatality rate. But a closer look at the rates outside of China are much lower. That suggests there is a larger denominator in China that isn't being counted. It makes sense given people with mild illness are unlikely to go to very crowded clinics.
But another way to measure how bad is total deaths. On average flu infects about 10% of the population every year. Not everyone is susceptible every year to every strain. So spread from person to person is often blocked by people who are not susceptible.
This virus is spreading in an immunity naive population, so there are no brakes, so to speak. The total number of deaths might be very high, especially in countries with poor public health infrastructure. Given that plus the fact testing is complex and test reagents are not yet widely distributed, who knows how many cases are circulating in countries that simply don't have the ability to test for it.
India and Indonesia are reporting numbers of cases that make no sense unless they aren't testing people. And the virus may have only recently arrived on the African and South American continents. The West Coast here now has four cases with no known source (the high school student in WA does not yet have a confirmed test result). Regardless, it is spreading here through uncontrolled, unrecognized cases.
On the bright side, more and more people are being careful about limiting exposures. That provides the brakes when cases run into roadblocks with no next person to spread it to. Stop the spread it will die out. But we'll have to be meticulous about stopping the spread for many months to come given cases will continue to come in from areas where it is not well controlled.
I did stock up on supplies yesterday and I have a list of what else to get today. Dogs gotta have their biscuits.
My big worry is when to start wearing a mask (yes only partial protection) because it's embarrassing to look so paranoid, and if it breaks loose here, will I or won't I go to work? I think at some point the outpatient surgery centers will shut down, they mostly do elective surgery. I don't know what the dentists will do.
But police and fire will still have needle sticks and there will be some planning meetings I will need to attend.
Guess I'll find out.
Stay safe everyone. There are lots of things you can do.
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You're right that there are different ways of calculating mortality rates, and data for COVID-19 are rapidly evolving, but evidence does suggest it has a higher death rate than seasonal flu, at least for people who develop noticeable symptoms. It's really hard at this point to know the percentage of people exposed to SARS-COV-2 virus may become infected but remain asymptomatic or have symptoms so mild they think it's just a mild cold or allergies. Death rates for diagnosed COVID-19 patients range between 1%-4%.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/worse-than-flu-busting-coronavirus-myths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
There are, however, disparities in calculated death rates in different regions of China, which may be influenced by factors such as access to health care and effectiveness of diagnosing milder cases. Death rates have been highest in Wuhan province. This was where the virus first appeared, of course, so it's not surprising that death rates would be highest among the early patients, before the system knew what they were dealing with and it was spreading like wildfire. On the other hand, their death rates may be higher because there are more severe cases that have run their complete course there by now. Hard to say.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30068-1/fulltext
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Even if the overall death rate of symptomatic cases is only 1%, though, that's about 10X deadlier than seasonal flu, which has an overall mortality of around 0.1% in the US (seasonal flu mortality is hard to calculate overall, though, as it varies from year to year--but 1% is still higher than flu mortality in the late 20th century and later within the US). If the death rate overall of this Corona virus is closer to 3%, as with some estimates, then Cornflake's number of 30X more deadly than seasonal flu is reasonable. How the mortality rate will compare to influenza in countries like the US, Canada and the UK, of course, is still up in the air. I am guessing death rates hill will be significantly lower than in China overall, where the high death rate in Wuhan has skewed the data, but still significantly higher than with flu.
Of course, there are loads of other ailments going around--the flu and the usual assortment of colds, plus strep throat and other bacterial infections that are higher in late winter than the rest of the year. The things distinguishing this virus reportedly are fever, cough, shortness of breath. I've heard that a seriously sore throat isn't one of the hallmark symptoms.
We have had the first US death from COVID-19, as a patient in Washington State has died. She was reportedly a medically at-risk patient in her late fifties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/29/coronavirus-live-updates/
I could do without Trump talking about what a wonderful person this woman was when he didn't know her and probably knows nothing of her. Maybe I'm just so sensitized to the man by now I can't be objective, but can't he even express condolences over a death without lapsing into insipid inanity?
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There's also the percentage of people who may not die but might need hospitalization - I see numbers like 15 - 20% of people infected, but I can't find a specific source right now. If true, that could be a significant strain on resources as well.
Even if one were to dismiss this as just another flu bug... look at what's happening now. Imagine what can/will happen if something one deemed truly dangerous emerged, with these people in charge. Is this the sort of response that will help or save lives if something deadlier and harder to track turns up?
Even if one were to dismiss this as just another flu bug... look at what's happening now. Imagine what can/will happen if something one deemed truly dangerous emerged, with these people in charge. Is this the sort of response that will help or save lives if something deadlier and harder to track turns up?
It wasn't my intention to dismiss it as "just another flu bug" but to point out that the actual illness is no less serious than flu for most people (though flu itself is pretty deadly to elderly and vulnerable people - let's not forget that. My second cousin died of flu at the age of 25 - she was a transplant patient, that was before there was a vaccine programme, though she wouldn't have been able to have the vaccine anyway as a transplant patient, her family at least could've had it and given her herd immunity.)
The significant difference isn't the virus itself but the fact no-one has any immunity to it. No prior exposure and no vaccine. Annual flu vaccine programmes stop large numbers of people, especially many of the most vulnerable, from contracting seasonal flu. That's what's going to cause the massive strain on resources. Everyone who gets a free flu vaccine from the NHS is a) in danger from the corona virus and b) in danger from the flu if they don't have the vaccine. Instead of staving off the majority of people who become dangerously ill from the flu, the health services will have to deal with ALL the vulnerable people getting sick. Whether it's equal danger isn't really the issue - it's not that different. The massive difference is the fact that no-one has immunity.
For people who don't *need* annual flu vaccines (I get one anyway but I don't *need* it otherwise the NHS would give it to me for free, lucky me my employer funds it because open plan offices don't want loads of flu season sick leave) the illness isn't that different from flu.
More dangerous pathogens have emerged such as Ebola and MERS. Those were contained and more deadly infections are usually easier to contain.
The most likely explanation for COVID-19 spreading so rapidly is a high incidence of mild cases (80% of known cases are mild, and there may be even more milder, unreported cases) and symptomless spreading. That makes it a hell of a lot harder to contain, but also means that the death rate is much lower.
Yes the world has a lot to learn from this - hopefully it will learn real lessons from it. though I can understand the concern with some of Trump's reactions - but that sort of thing might cost him the election. And the crap ton of media scaremongering's that's been going on is doing a lot more harm than good.
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The overcrowded hospitals in China suggest it is worse than seasonal flu. But sometimes flu gets really bad too.
It doesn't matter one way or the other though. I'm in a high risk category so I'm a bit paranoid. At least the flu vaccine made me feel a little protected. I'm also pretty good at avoiding exposure. I just have to ramp it up a bit.
I couldn't stomach Trump's rambling crap this morning. I watched some of it then figured there really wasn't anything in that press conference worth hearing. I'm glad there's some deal with the Taliban but I really fear for the women in Afghanistan. It's doubtful the US addressed any of that in this deal that no doubt Trump ordered to be made regardless. He needs a distraction because of the economy and the coronavirus. His total failure is more and more apparent and that deal is not going to save him.
It doesn't matter one way or the other though. I'm in a high risk category so I'm a bit paranoid. At least the flu vaccine made me feel a little protected. I'm also pretty good at avoiding exposure. I just have to ramp it up a bit.
I couldn't stomach Trump's rambling crap this morning. I watched some of it then figured there really wasn't anything in that press conference worth hearing. I'm glad there's some deal with the Taliban but I really fear for the women in Afghanistan. It's doubtful the US addressed any of that in this deal that no doubt Trump ordered to be made regardless. He needs a distraction because of the economy and the coronavirus. His total failure is more and more apparent and that deal is not going to save him.
Why did CDC send NYC man home without testing for coronavirus?
The first US death happened in Washington State. So many more people are going to die that would have otherwise because the worst, stupidest, most corrupt people on the planet are in charge.
The first US death happened in Washington State. So many more people are going to die that would have otherwise because the worst, stupidest, most corrupt people on the planet are in charge.
More cases here in WA State:
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/February/29-covid19.aspx
Probably been circulating for a while now.
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/February/29-covid19.aspx
Probably been circulating for a while now.
Update on the new King County cases. One was a health care provider at the care-facility and one was a patient there.
The nursing home patient is in Evergreen Hospital a few miles from here. Not sure how the health-care worker is doing.
One more thing, thank goodness my county and state are doing a good job in spite of Trump.
There is still limited testing capacity. They are testing exposed people and people who are quite ill. Mild cases of illness, not exposed are not being tested.
The nursing home patient is in Evergreen Hospital a few miles from here. Not sure how the health-care worker is doing.
One more thing, thank goodness my county and state are doing a good job in spite of Trump.
There is still limited testing capacity. They are testing exposed people and people who are quite ill. Mild cases of illness, not exposed are not being tested.
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Very significant, given that our healthcare system is very fragmented and concerned about money. Empty beds and underutilized personnel are not cost effective during normal times, which mean there won't be enough space in many hospitals for the influx of sick patients. People should definitely expect postponements of elective surgeries and medical procedures, but even so, there will still be plenty of patients with other conditions that need immediate care. There always are, and our system will be overwhelmed. Rural and inner city health care facilities are already inadequate to serve their communities
And health care workers will be exposed, and unlike with influenza, there is currently no vaccine to require them to get. Hopefully, health care providers will step up protective measures.I went to Kaiser for my shingles booster last Tuesday, and at that point, there were no unusual protective measures in place, aside from a sign telling us to inform them if you had a cough, fever etc. or had been out of the country. No one asking people this or handing out masks as they came into the building. I saw 2-3 people wearing masks in the waiting areas I passed, including one child who was wearing the mask incorrectly (only over her mouth, not covering her nose) with no correction from anyone. Not the first time I've seen a kid doing this, actually, with no one saying anything to them (even saw this in a picture in an article about the virus in China). Hopefully, people are being a bit more vigilant now.
I just saw an article about a nursing home in Washington state that is testing some patients and employees for the virus. I expect the number of suspected and confirmed cases to grow rapidly over the next few days.
My husband and I ran some errands and grabbed dinner last night, and given that we are in Sacramento, where the first case without a known path of infection, was diagnosed, everything seemed pretty calm and normal. There was a woman on the cleaning products isle, studying different disinfectants before rejecting chlorox wipes for having "too many chemicals." She said the alcohol based ones they have at Smart and Final are sold out. This grocery store wasn't unusually crowded, however, and I didn't see people piling their carts with emergency supplies. There was still plenty of bleach and chlorox wipes in stock. The restaurant we wanted to go to was full with a wait, so we went to the one across the street, which also had a large number of people, just like a normal Friday evening.
None of the people we saw out in public were wearing masks. No announcements yet of school closures, though a few students from the college district where I teach are in self-quarantine, pending test results.
I wonder if this will be the case in another week?
People are telling me that N-95 masks seem to be sold out or ridiculously expensive on Amazon, at least the brands people trust as potentially legitimate (now I am remembering the counterfeit mylar eclipse glasses some people ended up with back in 2017--made in China. Could people be making fake N-95 masks and respirators. There was a quick and dirty way to check if the glasses were real and safe--not sure if there is for these masks).
I wonder how this thing will affect availability of goods in general, given how many things are made there? I bought a desk last week, and it arrived almost immediately. Noticed the box said "Made in China." It was clearly already in a warehouse over here when I ordered it (since it arrived so quickly), but I imagine availability of many products will drop over time, and folks will likely be relying more on Amazon for day-to-day supplies if they are staying home.
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