COVID-19 | Corona Virus April 2020

Modly resigned.

More opinion:

I wonder if he was drunk? That kind of rant sounds like either he was impaired or he leans alt-right and resented the captain for breaking the 'code' or whatever they call it.

MaeZe said:

Watch, he'll intervene and reinstate Crozier to suck up the positive from the incident.

Click to expand...

If anything, he'll double down. Trump never backs down. It makes him look bad and optics is everything with someone with (an undiagnosed) NPD.

MaeZe said:

He will probably say the diverted masks weren't supposed to have happened and he'll send a big supply of masks to NF.

Click to expand...

In your dreams.

MaeZe said:

But incompetrump's announcement banning 3M from selling masks all over the world, even when the factories were in foreign countries was loud and clear.

Click to expand...

Trump doesn't care where the masks are fabricated, nor where the materials come from (some of it comes from Canada. DOH!). All he cares about is what is said on Fox - like this or that.

MaeZe said:

If I recall, the first report was the US blocked the shipment of masks and they were turned around on the tarmac. The second report was FedEx (or whichever company it was) made a shipping error and they didn't get unloaded when they were in Canada.

Click to expand...

There was a computer bug in the DHL shipping system. Or so they said. You have to close your eyes and believe it's rather normal that the number one core process of a shipping company is riddled with bugs... The shipment never left the building in Montreal. Then DHL blamed the recipient for not paying the duties. Said recipient promptly showed their receipt and demanded answers. DHL went silent about it. The next day or so, Canada sent its own cargo planes to China and managed duties and stuff on its own. Screw DHL.

-cb

Trump doesn't back down, that is correct. But when he really looks like a schmuck in the news, he is sensitive to that. Sometimes he lies and says, 'fake news, I never did that'. He already has claimed he only meant to address foreigners outbidding the US for 3M masks.

But you are correct, he never admits he was wrong. It was always someone else, not him, or the news is lying and he never said/did x.

frimble3 said:

One little edit makes the difference. Meaning, of course the current US government, not actual Americans, most of whom are good, decent people. Our siblings by a different father.

Click to expand...

Pretty much every single person I know is working hard to help out, whether by making masks, donating, making grocery runs for neighbors, and anything else they can think of. I got invited to a local mask-making and delivery group organized through Facebook, and wasn't going to join, because I don't have much energy or any of the skills they need. Or so I thought. Then I saw a call for "ear savers" that allow you to wear masks without putting the elastic behind your ears. There are a few ways to make them, but I just ordered a bunch of headbands and a big stash of buttons, so I can make and donate these. I can sew two buttons on a headband.

News conference on again, another couple of hours of droning on ....

Trump is now blaming the WHO for not acting sooner, he again touts stopping Chinese and how he was right, no one else was.... yada yada.

Took a break, he's still droning on and now he's repeating an anecdote about hydroxychloroquine.


Reason Mag: Unable To Handle Criticism of Coronavirus Stimulus Waste, Trump Fires Another Watchdog
Glenn Fine was abruptly removed from his post without explanation.

I looked into the anecdote Trump is repeating. Newsweek: DEM LAWMAKER SAYS TRUMP SAVED HER LIFE BY RECOMMENDING HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE FOR CORONAVIRUS

Just to point out a couple things, well one thing in particular: when the story is repeated it sounds like she was in critical condition. That to me says in critical care in the hospital and that's how I had heard the story previously.

Here's the actual situation:

Whitsett did not receive hydroxychloroquine until the day of her coronavirus test. She was able to have her husband pick up the medication after her symptoms reached a critical phase.
Hospitals in her area were full.

Click to expand...

Who decided her symptoms had reached a critical phase? What did it mean? She had a high fever and felt really bad? Who knows.

This is how anecdotes make people believe in untrue things:

"I honestly believed that once I got into something like that, I may not actually come out and that was my biggest fear," Whitsett said. "And I knew that this medication would possibly save me."

Whitsett credited Trump's mention of hydroxychloroquine during news briefings for giving her the idea of trying the drug.

"If President Trump had not talked about this, it would not be something that's accessible for anyone to get, not right now," Whitsett said.

Newsweek reached out to Whitsett for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.

Click to expand...

Coincidence becomes a correlation fact because personal experience is a powerful thing.

Did the med help her? We don't know yet. I'm glad anyone recovers. Incidents like this, however, do incredible damage to the critical thinking skills of the public.

If you take anything away from my post, next time you hear she was in critical condition, know that was not true. Maybe she believed she was "critical" but she wasn't within the medical definition of being in critical condition.

This drug is being given to lots of patients in critical condition in hospitals under research protocols. Had there been magical results, they would have already announced they are suspending the study and they would give it to everyone.


In the press conference a reporter asked to talk to Dr Fauci about hydroxychloroquine and Trump said no, you've already asked that question enough times.

Kjbartolotta said:

Generally not qualified to talk about military matters, but one thing that doesn't worry me is either command or rank-and-file service members deciding Trump is their king and they're gonna back him no matter what. My understanding is that the armed forces are pretty split on support for him, like any organization with nearly 1.4 million members would be.

But wow is Modly playing one of the most dangerous games imaginable at the worst f-ing time, and I suspect his comments are going to have other officers closely rereading and double-checking their oath to the Constitution. What will come of it? Well, Modly will potentially step down and him and Ollie North can do a podcast together, I doubt much else. But quite an epic fail as an officer, solider, American, and human.

Click to expand...

The military WAS very pro-Trump, but Trump coming out in favor of firing Crozier has not been sitting well with the rank and file. A good commanding officer is hard to come by. A CO who will burn his own career for the health and safety of the people under his command is a unicorn, and people serving under a CO like that will walk through fire for him and throat punch anyone who crosses him... even Trump.

So while I suspect there will still be plenty of loyalists come November, I would be very surprised if Trump didn't lose some military votes over this.

News from my little part of the World.

Coronavirus updates, April 7: Quebec releases optimistic, pessimistic projections
https://montrealgazette.com/news/lo...es-trump-eases-mask-export-ban-amid-backlash/

Summary: I'll leave the mathematical nuances out for the sake of discussion. Our scientists have picked Italy as the worst case scenario, and Portugal as the best case scenario. So far Quebec is closer to the best case scenario and in some cases even better than the best case scenario.

Here's our recipe:

a) Those 70 and above do not go out. Period. No exception.
b) Stay inside and avoid going out unless it's absolutely needed (yes, taking a walk to avoid going insane is considered a need...).
c) If you do go out, keep a distance of 2m (6ft) or better from other people
d) wash your hands with soap for 20 seconds when you come back
e) stick to a) - d) with a strict discipline

It works.

-cb

Covid and pollution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9654d4dwVmw

-cb

This is an interesting article comparing some different states and their projected peaks (in terms of deaths) and curve shapes. CA is in better shape at this point than MA or NY. SF in particular has kept their curve really flat here, being pretty much the first municipality of size to issue a stay at home order. As unpleasant as they are, they appear to work.

A widely cited model offers some predictions. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's COVID-19 projections were cited in recent White House briefings and take into account how the pandemic is playing out in several countries around the world. They incorporate the current trend line of deaths in U.S. states and the estimated impact of social distancing measures to predict when each state may reach peak daily deaths and hospital usage.

While projections like these are imprecise, they're useful to policy makers and hospital leaders trying to prepare for surges. The model was designed to give hospitals an idea of how quickly and how much they need to expand capacity.

Click to expand...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...y-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak

Roxxsmom said:

This is an interesting article comparing some different states and their projected peaks (in terms of deaths) and curve shapes. CA is in better shape at this point than MA or NY. SF in particular has kept their curve really flat here, being pretty much the first municipality of size to issue a stay at home order. As unpleasant as they are, they appear to work.




https://www.npr.org/sections/health...y-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak

Click to expand...

Yay Governor Inslee!

MaeZe said:

Yay Governor Inslee!

Click to expand...

I know. I'm so grateful to live here.

Governor Baker hasn't required stay-at-home officially, but from what I've seen in my part of Massachusetts, everyone is anyway. All businesses are closed aside from grocery stores, pharmacies, and a few other things like hardware stores, and the roads are carrying maybe a third of their usual traffic. The Dept of Health is predicting we'll peak at the end of this week; I hope they're right.

From Roxxsmom's link: Mass is projected to peak on the 18th.

Yes, I saw that. The state department of health is projecting between the 10th and 20th. https://www.mass.gov/news/baker-pol...d-19-surge-modeling-response-efforts-to-boost

Marissa D said:

Yes, I saw that. The state department of health is projecting between the 10th and 20th. https://www.mass.gov/news/baker-pol...d-19-surge-modeling-response-efforts-to-boost

Click to expand...

The model in the linked article actually makes things look pretty high for Massachusetts in terms of total projected deaths.

One thing that's interesting is this model predicts considerably fewer total US deaths than others. Adding together the projected cumulative deaths of all states and DC added together, the total is 83,935. That's much better than the 100,000-200,000 others have predicted. It's still worse than normal flu years, but much better than it could have been. What's interesting is some of the states still not practicing any social distancing have very low projected deaths even so.

I am curious why this model assumes there won't be a second wave. Is it based on a projection of a vaccine becoming available within a certain time frame.

I've been thinking for a bit about the death toll for this virus, though, and it's not necessarily limited just to people who die of the Virus. For instance, there are a lot of people not getting checkups right now, lots of people not having their routine cancer screenings. Lots of people not going to the doctor to get that funny mole looked at, or that occasional chest pain checked out that is probably just heartburn. Lots of people not having routine blood work done. So some people won't get cancers, heart disease, diabetes or other life threatening diseases diagnosed before it's too late. And for people who have cancer, they are having to make tough choices about getting their chemo, which could weaken them and make them more vulnerable to Covid-19, or to delay treatment (or opt for more conservative treatment) which could mean a worse outcome. How can we calculate additional deaths that stem from this? And what about extra loss of life by people with other emergencies that might not get as much care and medications/equipment dedicated to them, because they are competing with Covid-19 patients.

Of course, there are fewer car accidents now too, which may save a few lives. I don't know how we can ever truly calculate the change in deaths from other causes but are attributable to the rationing of non-urgent health care and other changes that came during Covid-19.

I'm one of those people not going in for a work-up. The doctor on the phone today said I should come in. I told her I'm too afraid to, I'll wait a bit longer. But it's okay, they make med changes, mail them to me and I can evaluate them. It would likely be the same if I went in.

I am curious why this model assumes there won't be a second wave. Is it based on a projection of a vaccine becoming available within a certain time frame.

Click to expand...

You have to make some parameters to make your model. There must be several variables they didn't address.

John Prine died. I was hoping he would make it.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/07/750894794/john-prine-obituary?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news

cbenoi1 said:

a) Those 70 and above do not go out. Period. No exception.

Click to expand...

This is the bane for me. My mother decided to go out shopping yesterday. She's 84. The gray is showing through so she was looking to a hair salon that was opened. They are all closed. Non-essential services. Minutes into the discussion about why this is a baaaaad idea to go out, I finally get the rationale behind her sneaky expedition - a hair dye refresh would make her look like she's 69 again...

-cb

cbenoi1 said:

This is the bane for me. My mother decided to go out shopping yesterday. She's 84. The gray is showing through so she was looking to a hair salon that was opened. They are all closed. Non-essential services. Minutes into the discussion about why this is a baaaaad idea to go out, I finally get the rationale behind her sneaky expedition - a hair dye refresh would make her look like she's 69 again...

-cb

Click to expand...

Having to stay home wasn't a big deal for us . . . at first. We're retired and we live out in the boonies and there's always so much work to do around the house and property that we keep busy. But, I get it's the having to stay home that chafes, you know? Yesterday, the spouse sez he needed to get a haircut—in fairness, he was starting to look a bit shaggy—"I'm going to see if my barber is open." I said yeah, no, I'll cut your hair. (I cut his hair for more than 30 years until my wrists went bad, so I figured I'd give it a go to see if I could manage the scissors, etc.)
So, the haircut was fine even if I was a bit slower than I used to be about it. All good, right?

Yeah, no.

At a quarter to seven this morning he wakes me up; he's fully dressed and on his way out. Where? "I need new slippers." I told him we'll order them online. "Well, I need a few other things, too, like weedeater oil." So, he's gone shoppin'.

cbenoi1 said:

This is the bane for me. My mother decided to go out shopping yesterday. She's 84. The gray is showing through so she was looking to a hair salon that was opened. They are all closed. Non-essential services. Minutes into the discussion about why this is a baaaaad idea to go out, I finally get the rationale behind her sneaky expedition - a hair dye refresh would make her look like she's 69 again...

-cb

Click to expand...

Ugh.

My MiL was telling us yesterday about how her hair salon (who has decided to STAY OPEN despite the Gov's order) called her up, trying to get her to go to a Friday appointment. MiL prudently said "NO".

Ari Meermans said:

Having to stay home wasn't a big deal for us . . . at first. We're retired and we live out in the boonies and there's always so much work to do around the house and property that we keep busy. But, I get it's the having to stay home that chafes, you know?

Click to expand...

+1. I'm the introvertiest of introverts, and I just want to go...somewhere. Sit at a restaurant. Browse drawing pencils at Michaels. Buy some cat toys. Smile and say "thank you" to a cashier without worrying that speaking to them would spread something awful.

Ari Meermans said:

At a quarter to seven this morning he wakes me up; he's fully dressed and on his way out. Where? "I need new slippers." I told him we'll order them online. "Well, I need a few other things, too, like weedeater oil." So, he's gone shoppin'.

Click to expand...

Yikes.

I'm terrified of going to the store. I've taken all the precautions, and I'm still counting down the 14 days from when I was last out. Because then I get to go out again, and start the anxiety all over.

As of last night, we have 0 reported cases in our town. Assuming that's in any way accurate, it's down to geography: we're sparsely populated and spread out. Even in normal times, you could easily walk down a street in the evening and see no one else out at all. So grocery shopping is my big exposure. And I have no idea how risky it really is, which infuriates me beyond belief.

I'm no seamstress so I ordered handmade masks with filters for our trip to his oncologist next week. And I hate that we have to go because there are SO many reported cases in the Metroplex. But, of course, the masks haven't arrived yet so I quickly made him a no-sew mask using a bandana and a couple of rubber bands and handed him a pair of latex gloves & "ordered" him to wear them. You can only do so much when dealing with supposed adults. *sigh*

(Luckily, he was so early he was the only shopper in the two stores he went to. No slippers, tho'. Ha!)