Quote Originally Posted by Gregg View Post
On a positive note the scientist who predicted 500,000 deaths in Britain has modified his theory and now says the number will be 20,000. Reduced by a factor of 25. Both the US and Britain (and perhaps other countries) have relied on his original numbers for setting some of their policies.
Now these policies are under review.
Hopeful, but it's too early to drop our guard (especially for older farts like me).
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26...c-predictions/
Look at the framing, starting with the title: "The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions"

“For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries,” the report reads. ...

... But after tens of thousands of restaurants, bars, and businesses closed, Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks.
He's not retracting his modeling, he's updated it adding where the UK is now with actions to suppress/mitigate the pandemic.


Not only that, they've distorted what his prediction actually was. Here's the paper:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Results
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. ...

... in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the
US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
He ends with:
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.

[side note] Other people (another forum) latched onto that serial mitigation action plan like it was a great plan. Gee, the kids could stay in school was the main attraction to the plan. They cited this same paper and ignored the final conclusion.[/side note]


The Libertarian bent of the Federalist Society is highlighted by their distorting the facts to make it sound like too many people are overreacting and 'keep the kids in school'. All will be fine. The original predictions were exaggerated, look, here's proof, Dr Ferguson has "retracted" his initial prediction.

From another link in the link we see what the revised prediction actually said:
https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/
New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.

Here's an example of the comments in the Federalist.com piece:
Big thread. The man who panicked the world is now running from his doomsday projections. Shut up and quarantine crowd MIA. No need to apologize to those of us who told you not to blindly trust 1 projection. Scrutinize a little more next time before you surrender your freedoms.
A bit ironic talking about blind trust.


Some people want to wish this away claiming people are overreacting. When the dust settles, I'd like to revisit this with you, Gregg.