Dem 2020 Race: The Road to Super Tuesday

William Haskins

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gabbard is a non-starter, but likely to stay in, as being a thorn in the side of the DNC is her jam (plus any juice she can gain by eventually throwing her support to another candidate).

steyer dumped a lot of money (to some effect) in nevada and is likely to stay in until ST to gauge his POC vote. it's stronger than folks might imagine.

pete arguably has momentum coming out of iowa/nh (and definitely a lead in delegates thus far), so he's got every reason to see how it plays out.

klobuchar has reason for hope (though she's the lightest in the pockets).

that leaves biden who will for sure test his POC firewalls in SC and beyond, warren who is desperately seeking a second act, and bloomberg, who can pretty much just sit back and write checks and make commercials until the convention. and sanders, who will rise from the dead if necessary to yell his platform.

so, who should drop out in the name of unity and focus?

depends on who you ask, i reckon.
 

Kjbartolotta

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gabbard is a non-starter, but likely to stay in, as being a thorn in the side of the DNC is her jam (plus any juice she can gain by eventually throwing her support to another candidate).

steyer dumped a lot of money (to some effect) in nevada and is likely to stay in until ST to gauge his POC vote. it's stronger than folks might imagine.

pete arguably has momentum coming out of iowa/nh (and definitely a lead in delegates thus far), so he's got every reason to see how it plays out.

klobuchar has reason for hope (though she's the lightest in the pockets).

that leaves biden who will for sure test his POC firewalls in SC and beyond, warren who is desperately seeking a second act, and bloomberg, who can pretty much just sit back and write checks and make commercials until the convention. and sanders, who will rise from the dead if necessary to yell his platform.

so, who should drop out in the name of unity and focus?

depends on who you ask, i reckon.

LOL. Can't say I'm happy with any of it, but that about sums it up.
 

William Haskins

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you can't make this shit up...

Mark Murray

@mmurraypolitics

Most unpopular qualities for a prez candidate in the new NBC/WSJ poll (combined reservations + very uncomfortable):


  • Socialist: 67%
  • Heart attack in past year: 57%
  • 75+: 53%
  • Self-funder: 41%
  • Under 40: 40%
  • Gay/lesbian: 27%
  • Woman: 14%

Feb 14-17, RVs, MOE +/- 3.3%
 

JJ Litke

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Mark Murray was part of what sparked complaints today about erasing Warren—his “hypothetical matchups” tweets (one and two) just ahead of the “unpopular qualities” leave Warren out.
 

ElaineA

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It wasn't just his tweets that left her out. The H2H poll itself didn't include her. Peter Hart, whose firm conducted the poll, told BuzzFeed News that the poll had “space and time” for just five candidate match-ups.

The poll, from NBC and the Wall Street Journal, found Warren was effectively tied for second place nationally, with 14% of the vote.

But pollsters excluded her from a series of match-ups between Trump and top candidates. The poll include Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, and Mike Bloomberg, who all polled within a point of Warren, and Amy Klobuchar, who trailed significantly behind them.

<snip>
Hart, the pollster, said that the poll had tested Warren against Trump “fairly recently.” The decision to poll Klobuchar, he said, was rooted in part in her surge.

And just to put the lie in the "she's a failing candidate" BS:

-- Warren is statistically tied for 2nd in the same poll that left her out of head-to-heads with Trump

-- Warren leads Buttigieg in 4 of the 5 last national polls

-- Warren is 3rd in delegates

But just keep putting a finger on the scales opposite her. It's not like we haven't seen this tactic used to manipulate before. What was that about pneumonia and emails, again? And, so odd...we haven't heard another peep about a 78 year-old man's heart attack. Whyever could that be? *thinky-face emoji*
 

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William Haskins

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And, so odd...we haven't heard another peep about a 78 year-old man's heart attack. Whyever could that be? *thinky-face emoji*

various peeps:

What about Bernie Sanders’ heart attack? At 78, he says you know enough Feb 19

https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/article240420936.html

Bernie Sanders says he won’t release post-heart attack medical records Feb 9

https://nypost.com/2020/02/09/bernie-sanders-says-he-wont-release-post-heart-attack-medical-records/

Bernie Sanders Takes Back Promise To Release Medical Records 4 Months After Suffering Heart Attack At Age 78 Feb 9

https://www.inquisitr.com/5882648/bernie-sanders-medical-records-heart-attack/

Super PAC uses heart attack in ad hitting Bernie Sanders Jan 28

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/pac-heart-attack-ad-bernie-sanders-108239
 

Gregg

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Tonight's debate could change things. I expect a full frontal attack on Bloomberg.
I think that both Biden and Warren are done - they've fallen hard in the RCP average poll and it's hard to recover lost support.
Gabbard and Steyer are going nowhere (are they in the debate tonight?).
That leaves Bernie, Bloomberg, Mayor Pete and Amy K. still in it.
We may get a good idea if Bloomberg is a viable option after the debate.
 

Introversion

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And what's with the rush? We're still waiting for Trump's tax returns.

I’m waiting for his heart attack, but maybe that’s just me? :evil

As for the Dem candidates, I will vote for any of them, albeit some more reluctantly than others. But I do wish more of them near the bottom would drop out, quicker. The longer many stay in, the more cash they spend fighting each other, the better it is for Tmurp. I mean, I get why they don’t want to drop sooner, but cmon, there’s no credible way for Steyer or Gabbard to be finishers, short of Tmurp shooting all the others on 5th avenue, which he probably legally can do now...
 

William Haskins

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steyer has all his eggs in the south carolina basket and, with biden's fortunes fading, may surprise many with the inroads he has made with the african-american community. it's highly unlikely to result in any game-changing momentum, but he's in at least until then.
 
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Sanders has a black, female press secretary, which is smart to attract the back vote and possibly the female vote, but more the black vote. She previously worked at Jeremy Scahill's The Intercept, which was done some great investigative reporting.
 

JJ Litke

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That depends on if he feels he did release the records he said he would.

From CNN in October: "The people do have a right to know about the health of a senator, somebody who's running for president of the United States -- full disclosure," Sanders said, pledging again release his full medical records.

And now he has backtracked from that and released letters from doctors instead.

I'm not saying I think all candidates need to release full medical records, but he did walk that promise back.
 

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I'm not saying I think all candidates need to release full medical records, but he did walk that promise back.

On CNN today, his surrogate said something to the effect of "Sanders has the right to some privacy". Sanders released the letters from his doctors. They all say Sanders' condition that lead to the event are no longer present. So if he had a blocked artery, that artery is now fixed.

In other words, he may still be a ticking time bomb but at least they have disabled one timer.

-cb
 
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Lyv

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I'd love to know his current ejection fraction, which is the amount of blood the heart pumps at each contraction. That's a key piece of information that I would expect to have been included. I've been in heart failure a long time and was an RN.

He looks terribly unwell to me. I picture him winning the nomination and having a major cardiac event days before the general. Not a chance I would be willing to take, if there ever had been a chance I would ever cast a vote for Bernie Sanders, which is nothing I will ever have to worry about.
 

JJ Litke

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On CNN today, his surrogate said something to the effect of "Sanders has the right to some privacy". Sanders released the letters from his doctors. They all say Sanders' condition that lead to the event are no longer present. So if he had a blocked artery, that artery is now fixed.

In other words, he may still be a ticking time bomb but at least they have disabled one timer.

-cb

I’d agree that candidates shouldn’t have to release literally all medical records, that potentially gets into some really thorny issues. But he did say he would, and now he’s not, so people who don’t like him anyway are calling him on it. His surrogate didn’t soothe anyone by calling it a smear campaign and comparing it to birtherism.

I'd love to know his current ejection fraction, which is the amount of blood the heart pumps at each contraction. That's a key piece of information that I would expect to have been included. I've been in heart failure a long time and was an RN.

Speculation on Twitter was that’s one of the things they’re trying to hide by not releasing his records. Also a lot of stats about odds of a second heart attack after having one over the age of 75.
 

Kjbartolotta

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I'm not saying I think all candidates need to release full medical records

I'm saying that. All of them, all their taxes (Hi Bloomberg!), all their medical records, who their VPs are gonna be. No walk backs, no corny excuses. We've already gone through this with Trump's taxes and whatever that Dr. Feelgood of his was spouting. Make them do push-ups while reciting the alphabet backwards in front of a live audience at Walter Reed. IDGAF. All this okiedokie is getting normalized and I'm not cool with it.
 

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I agree that 45 has been gaslighting people. And I agree with releasing taxes. I do worry that releasing full medical records could open some of them to vulnerabilities with regard to assassination. But I agree Bernie should have released more than what he has.
 

Kjbartolotta

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Ok, walking back all medical records to some. But health & taxes are the two things I think any strong candidate is going to make a good faith effort to show. And since three of the candidates are in there late seventies and it's the most stressful job in the world, I have an increased desire to see their VP picks as soon as possible. I know there's a horse-trading process involved, but it's not a crazy ask to be open about it.
 

frimble3

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I do worry that releasing full medical records could open some of them to vulnerabilities with regard to assassination.
Not sure how med records relate to assassination? Does a bullet care what shape a man is in? It's unlikely that a president is going to be forced to exercise until he has a heart attack, isn't it? And assassination by poisoning is rare.
 

Katana

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Tonight's debate could change things. I expect a full frontal attack on Bloomberg.
I think that both Biden and Warren are done - they've fallen hard in the RCP average poll and it's hard to recover lost support.
Gabbard and Steyer are going nowhere (are they in the debate tonight?).
That leaves Bernie, Bloomberg, Mayor Pete and Amy K. still in it.
We may get a good idea if Bloomberg is a viable option after the debate.
Biden is on track to win South Carolina, Amy isn't on track to win anything. Why should Biden drop out and not Amy?