Dem 2020 Race: The Road to Super Tuesday

Gregg · Feb 24, 2020

Kind of amazing that the Democrat race mirrors in many ways the GOP race of 2016. The candidate the "establishment" does not want (Trump/Sanders) builds momentum that may be insurmountable - but never gets more than 50% of the vote. The candidates trailing him (those who poll more than 1 or 2 %) don't want to be the first to drop out, even though, if they joined forces, they might prevent the leader from winning.
One huge difference, however. The GOP didn't have a Bloomberg who is able to spend as much money as necessary to take down the leader.

There are a few reports out there that Bloomberg plans to do just that. But after his very poor debate performance, I wonder if it is too late for him.

MaeZe · Feb 27, 2020

You appear to be reading a lot of bias conformation into that assessment Gregg. The differences are stark.

A lot of Democrats don't want Sanders to win because we fear he'll lose to Trump. His voting army has still not surfaced after decades of him saying they will.

A lot of Democrats don't want Biden because we fear he too will lose to Trump. There is an old guard Democratic core that, in my opinion, are blind to all the issues with Biden (gaffes, scandal with his son regardless of their validity, the creepy Joe hair kissing, again regardless of its validity). Hopefully the core Democratic Party members will recognize this soon.

I don't think Republican-light Bloomberg can win with just ads. That will be an interesting experiment. If he does he is still better than Trump and Bloomberg will win.

Klobuchar will be the next to dropout, she just hasn't proven she's ready.

I'm wavering between Steyer and Warren. Right now I favor Warren though I do have a Steyer sign in my yard. She's smart enough to go against Trump and win.

The reason I'm favoring Warren over Steyer is because Steyer also is banking on an army of voters. But he's an excellent candidate. Warren is too and I expect her to gain some traction soon.

Lyv · Feb 27, 2020

This time, Bernie Sanders 'rigged' the system against himself

Sanders and his allies want Democrats to ignore the rules he helped rewrite and coronate him at the party's convention this summer if he arrives with a plurality — but not a majority — of delegates. Even though Sanders has long been wary of the role party leaders can play in hand-picking a nominee, his position now is a reversal from the one he took in 2016, when he looked to so-called superdelegates to overcome Hillary Clinton's lead in regular delegates at the end of their primary race.

The risk for Sanders is that voters might begin to believe that his definition of a "rigged" system has nothing to do with fairness and everything to do with whether he wins or loses.

I won't "begin" to believe that. I knew it in 2016, when he was asking superdelegates to flip from Hillary Clinton, who left him in the dust with the delegate count. You can see him say that on video here. To recap, in 2016, he wanted superdelegates to back the candidate who got far fewer votes, then demanded changes that are partly why we have a lily-white field and are not giving him what he wants. So now he wants the change the rules to suit him again. The rules of a party he won't join and slams constantly. He's like Trump when things don't go his way. Lashes out, uses his go-to insults (rigged, establishment), and paints himself as the victim.

cbenoi1 · Feb 28, 2020

Lyv said:
He's like Trump when things don't go his way. Lashes out, uses his go-to insults (rigged, establishment), and paints himself as the victim.

Sanders suffers from "I-Waited-So-Long-For-This-So-It's-My-Turn" syndrome.

-cb

MaeZe · Feb 28, 2020

cbenoi1 said:
Sanders suffers from "I-Waited-So-Long-For-This-So-It's-My-Turn" syndrome.

-cb

Biden does as well. He told his sad story yesterday about how his dying son's last words were, "promise me you'll fight on."

If he or Sanders win the Primary we're toast.

Brightdreamer · Feb 28, 2020

MaeZe said:
Biden does as well. He told his sad story yesterday about how his dying son's last words were, "promise me you'll fight on."

If he or Sanders win the Primary we're toast.

I'd rather Biden than Sanders, though. Biden seems less likely to pitch a snitfit and take his voters and go home if he doesn't get his way, nor is he actively tearing down the party he wants the support of to gain the nomination...

Though, really, his heart is not in this fight from what I've seen.

William Haskins · Feb 28, 2020

CNN polls: Bernie Sanders holds big leads in California and Texas ahead of critical Super Tuesday

(CNN)Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders holds substantial leads in the two largest states to vote in next week's Super Tuesday lineup of primaries, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in California and Texas.

In Texas, Sanders holds 29% support among likely primary voters, former Vice President Joe Biden has 20%, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg stands at 18% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is at 15%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. Sanders (+14) and Bloomberg (+13) have posted the largest gains since a December CNN poll, while Biden has slipped 15 points. Warren has held roughly even.

The California results suggest the same four contenders hold the most support, though Sanders stands well ahead of the three contending for second place. Sanders holds 35% support, Warren is at 14%, Biden is at 13% and Bloomberg is at 12%. Sanders' support in the state has climbed 15 points since December, while Biden's has slid eight points. Bloomberg has gained seven.

Decisive wins for a single candidate in California and Texas -- states which will award more than 600 of the 1,991 delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination -- could change the tenor of a race that has at times seemed headed for a protracted fight.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/politics/super-tuesday-2020-polls/index.html

Introversion · Feb 28, 2020

Brightdreamer said:
I'd rather Biden than Sanders, though.

I disagree that nominating Biden will be better. Biden has better support among black voters, which the Democrats definitely need to show up and vote, but Biden’s just not an exciting candidate, especially (according to polls anyway) younger voters (which Dems also need to show up).

You and I may believe strongly in “vote blue no matter who”, but I don’t think enough voters are there to push Biden over the top. Hell, Biden himself often just seems like he’s going through the motions, to me at least.

William Haskins · Feb 28, 2020

Senator Bernie Sanders has surpassed former Vice President Joe Biden in support from black voters, making him the most favorable candidate for that demographic, a new national poll shows.

The Hill/HarrisX survey has Sanders extending his lead in the 2020 Democratic presidential race after Tuesday night's debate—and with a 9-point advantage among black voters. Overall, Sanders saw a 6-point increase from last week's Hill/HarrisX poll, with 28 percent support among Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters. The poll was conducted between February 23 and 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

https://www.newsweek.com/black-vote...-democratic-candidates-new-poll-shows-1489209

Auteur · Feb 28, 2020

I'd vote for any Democrat this time around and not have to hold my nose like I did in 2016, but I'd enthusiastically vote for Bernie. For all other candidates, it would be a vote against Trump more than a vote for the candidate. Bernie is the only real progressive in the race and maybe Warren, but she was a Republican not that long ago.

We don't need minor tweeks to the system; we need a major overhaul.

We need publicly funded elections to put power back into the hands of the people and out of the hands of corporations. What we have in our country right now is corporatism, which is heading towards fascism.

We need Medicare for all. Insurance companies shouldn't be raking in billions of dollars in profits every year when all they do is take your money and pass it to the health care providers after skimming off 10 to 20 percent. Medicare operates at a four percent overhead. That's a bit more like it. If not Medicare for all, we should set a much lower maximum overhead for private insurance, like maybe at 5%. I believe that's how it works in many European countries that have private insurance but low rates.

Of course, Medicare for all won't come easy. But we can start by lowering the Medicare eligibility age incrementally until we have Medicare for all. A public option won't work because there's no way the insurance industry will allow their prices to be undercut. They have too much power.

Roxxsmom · Feb 28, 2020

Auteur said:
I'd vote for any Democrat this time around and not have to hold my nose like I did in 2016, but I'd enthusiastically vote for Bernie. For all other candidates, it would be a vote against Trump more than a vote for the candidate. Bernie is the only real progressive in the race and maybe Warren, but she was a Republican not that long ago.

Well, if more than twenty years ago is "not that long ago." She was a fairly blase, moderate "free-market" Republican before many Sanders supporters were even born. (The nineties are ancient history to people in their twenties. I discovered today that some of my students don't even know what HIV is, because AIDS has not been an incurable death sentence since before they were born).

Her past as a largely apolitical Republican is something many Sanders supporters say they mistrust about her, but honestly, there's something to be said for someone who has examined their positions and is capable of changing them when it's clear something isn't working. Wish there were more people in Washington who could do this these days.

I would like to see medicare for all as well, but it's not the only single-payer option in existence. There are also ways to get there incrementally that might be less threatening to people who still have misgivings about giving up the system they are familiar with.

Introversion · Feb 28, 2020

There's an avalanche of opposition research coming for Bernie Sanders. The story of Sierra Blanca is just the start.

The Bulwark said:
There’s a lot of discussion about the “oppo” that is coming down the mountain for Bernie Sanders if he’s the Democratic nominee. Most of this focuses on the gap in knowledge between his socialist sympathies and voter attitudes on socialism.

But Sanders has also avoided the scrutiny on more niche issues that Trump and the conservative media specialize in elevating but are saving for later, thanks to his Favored Opponent Status.

One such subject (that was used sporadically by Clinton allies in 2016) is currently being featured in an ad running in South Carolina by the anti-Sanders Super PAC “Big Tent Project.” It’s about Sanders dumping waste in a poor Latino community in Texas.

The ad is potent and, should Sanders be the nominee, will be the perfect successor to the “super-predators” ads the Trump campaign used to tamp down African-American support for Clinton in 2016. So before you hear about it from your Ingraham Angle watching aunt this summer, here’s the phrase that is certain to become very familiar in conservative households: Sierra Blanca.

First, the basics.

(1) In 1998, then-Rep. Sanders cosponsored a bill that would allow Vermont and Maine to dump their nuclear waste in a poor and largely Latino town in Texas called Sierra Blanca.

(2) A Texas Observer article in 1998 covered protestors from Sierra Blanca confronting Rep. Sanders and being given the stiff arm. The story’s headline was “Sanders to Sierra Blanca: Drop Dead.” Sanders even rebuffed an offer to visit Sierra Blanca, telling its residents, “Absolutely not. I’m gonna be running for re-election in the state of Vermont.”

(3) Liberal hero Paul Wellstone—an actual progressive Democrat—gave a speech on the Senate floor calling this dump “environmental racism.” Former Texas Democratic Rep. Silvestre Reyes called Sanders actions “insanely callous.”

(4) After Congress approved the proposal, environmental regulators rejected the Sierra Blanca site. But a different site in Andrews County, Texas gained approval a few years later and Vermont/Texas maintain an interstate waste agreement.

(5) In 2016, Sanders’ tax returns revealed that as of 2014 Jane Sanders was still drawing a small salary as an alternate commissioner for the Texas Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Compact Commission as part of the agreement with Vermont that her husband pushed.

(6) Oops.

...

Kjbartolotta · Feb 28, 2020

Introversion said:
There's an avalanche of opposition research coming for Bernie Sanders. The story of Sierra Blanca is just the start.

Look up the Vermont Freeman if you want a real chuckle. :/

Introversion · Feb 29, 2020

Kjbartolotta said:
Look up the Vermont Freeman if you want a real chuckle. :/

Yeah, articles like this gave been around for awhile, covering some of the odd things he wrote in his twenties, like “sexual oppression causes cancer”.

I expect we’ll hear all of that and more, the latter being manufactured. Is going to be a very dirty campaign.

Honestly, I prefer Elizabeth Warren be the nominee, though I think I’m unlikely to get my wish. She’s passionate enough about the same issues, but her more wonkish approach to policies appeals to me. Sanders is more of a movement leader, and definitely not wonkish. People standing at pulpits and loudly firing up shouty crowds always make me nervous.

Kjbartolotta · Feb 29, 2020

Introversion said:
Yeah, articles like this gave been around for awhile, covering some of the odd things he wrote in his twenties, like “sexual oppression causes cancer”.

I expect we’ll hear all of that and more, the latter being manufactured. Is going to be a very dirty campaign.

Honestly, I prefer Elizabeth Warren be the nominee, though I think I’m unlikely to get my wish. She’s passionate enough about the same issues, but her more wonkish approach to policies appeals to me. Sanders is more of a movement leader, and definitely not wonkish. People standing at pulpits and loudly firing up shouty crowds always make me nervous.

RE: the Freeman, Sanders just seems like he was really into Wilhelm Reich in those days. But it's quite cringey even by Seventies standards and...well, y'all know how I feel.

Warren's probably my pick, but I am holding my ballot tight right now. Still ambivalent about her to some extent, but she's the only one I'd be truly supportive of come general don't. Don't get why her numbers have slipped so hard, I have no doubt the coverage is doing her dirty but I can't help but thinking voters are just really cross-pressured and bouncing from narrative to narrative right now.

Certain I'm alone in this, but I'm much more amenable to Biden than I was six months ago. Maybe just getting worn down by the whole process and watching five candidates I was passionate about get starved out has gut punched me. But IDK, putting aside all the arguments why he definitely should have sat this one out, I still see a guy who was damn good VP, wants to expand Obamacare (more slowly that I would like), is strong on foreign policy, will help us down ballot, and has plenty of moments on the campaign trail showing the kind of empathy I appreciate. There's a lot of 'yeah but', but changing my filters and how I get my information has mellowed me a bit.

Roxxsmom · Feb 29, 2020

I'm starting to wonder how the proliferation of coronavirus cases in the US will affect turnout this Tuesday, and in upcoming weeks. We have mail-in ballots and voting centers (which have been open for a couple of weeks now) in CA, but even so, will some people in this state who were planning on voting "day of" choose to stay home because they are avoiding public spaces? And how will this affect overall turnout in (IMO backwards) states where people still have to come to the polls in person and on the day of?

I imagine this outbreak will be resolved by next November, but if we ever do get a nasty epidemic that coincides with November voting, it could be a serious issue, greater even than the voter suppression issues that can accompany severe weather in some regions.

One more reason, imo, to make vote by mail available nationally.

MaeZe · Feb 29, 2020

Biden is convinced he's going to win (51% tonight) but the word is he's low on funds.

I was hoping Warren and Steyer would have done better but they did have a fair showing.

Lyv · Feb 29, 2020

Steyer's out.

Things change when it's not mostly only white people voting.

Biden did win so...I'll donate again.

William Haskins · Feb 29, 2020

steyer’s dropping out as i type, and warren won’t get a single delegate or out of the single digits.

not sure how fair a showing that is...

it’s pretty much biden and sanders now.

Kjbartolotta · Feb 29, 2020

That recent clip of Steyer dancing to 'Back That Azz Up' kind of warmed me up to him.

frimble3 · Feb 29, 2020

Question from a dumb Canadian - was Steyer ever really in it?
I've only ever seen ads for him on one U.S. channel, he has no political experience (mainly business and philanthropic, I gather) and he seemed to get no major traction. Because I was curious, in a 'here's another guy with no experience in any level of government', I looked him up, and apparently he's speculated about running for governor before, but never even done that.

His running now, for President right out of the gate, seems... odd? 'If Trump can do it, anyone can do it'?

In his ads, I liked him well enough, but I have a suspicion of people with no experience going for the Big Job.

William Haskins · Feb 29, 2020

billionaire vanity candidates happen (see forbes, perot, etc). steyer’s a good egg, but out of his depth politically.

MaeZe · Feb 29, 2020

William Haskins said:
billionaire vanity candidates happen (see forbes, perot, etc). steyer’s a good egg, but out of his depth politically.

Steyer was not a vanity candidate. I've been involved with Steyer's Need to Impeach campaign for years. He's not a new guy from nowhere.

People weren't willing to look at what he stood for or what his background was. He didn't get his message out strongly enough.

It's unfortunate. We are one step closer to Trump being reelected. If it's between Sanders and Biden I may vote for Bloomberg. That's really unfortunate.

One redeeming quality Biden has is he will know how to put our Dumpty Trumpty government together again.

William Haskins · Feb 29, 2020

steyer was a vanity candidate.

JJ Litke · Mar 1, 2020

MaeZe said:
We are one step closer to Trump being reelected.

Of course we are. That's what is going to happen, no matter the candidate.

I'm honestly baffled by how much people keep talking like the election is going to be fair, that somehow one candidate or another has a better chance against T*ump. No one, no matter how good they look on paper now, is going to be treated fairly in the general. T*ump will twist truths and mix in bald-faced lies, make baseless accusations of wrongdoing or even criminal actions, all of which the media will breathlessly repeat over and over. It's going to be exactly like 2016 again. No matter how shiny or decent you think your candidate is, they will be completely covered in mud and shit come November.

I'm not saying there's no point in voting, but worrying about who gets the Democratic nomination is like worrying about whether to take tylenol or ibuprofen for the pain after stepping on a nail that went through your foot--that choice won't make any difference as long as the nail is still in your foot.

Dem 2020 Race: The Road to Super Tuesday

Life is good

I meant to do that.

Just Another Lazy Perfectionist

poet

Pie aren't squared, pie are round!

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Redacted

Beastly Fido

Pie aren't squared, pie are round!

Potentially has/is dog

Pie aren't squared, pie are round!

Potentially has/is dog

Beastly Fido

I meant to do that.

poet

Potentially has/is dog

Heckuva good sport

poet

poet

People are not wearing enough hats