Dem 2020 Race: The Road to Super Tuesday

William Haskins

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welcome back.

current delegate count after iowa and new hampshire (1990 needed to win nomination):


Pete Buttigieg: 22
Bernie Sanders: 21
Elizabeth Warren: 8
Amy Klobuchar: 7
Joe Biden: 6

(source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/delegate-count-primary-results.html)

current realclearpolitics averages for upcoming primaries:

nevada - 36 delegates (2/22):

Bernie Sanders: 21.5%
Joe Biden: 18.5%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Tom Steyer: 9.5%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%

(source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...vada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html)

south carolina - 54 delegates (2/29)

Joe Biden: 26.5%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Tom Steyer: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 7.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 4.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.0%

(source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html)

early averages for super tuesday states:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/SuperTuesday.html
 

MacAllister

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I cannot BELIEVE we missed the whole Senate Impeachment trial because we were knocked offline.

Dammit.
 

Brightdreamer

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the bad guy got away with it. like a bad netflix series.

Oh, he didn't just get away with it... he was given even more power and loot, and is gleefully using it to destroy even the hope of a non-dystopian ending.

And everyone apparently is okay with sitting around until November and an election that may or may not even happen (and is deliberately being set up to be thrown out as tainted if it says what they don't like - the lack of movement on election security bills is a major tell, as is the comfort with which they ignore the majority these days) for the next magic bullet fix that'll blow up in in our faces.
 

William Haskins

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And everyone apparently is okay with sitting around until November and an election that may or may not even happen....

to be fair, people are voting and aligning in support of candidates running against him.. in the real world where elections are scheduled to happen, will happen, will be heavily monitored and the results of which will be enforced.

this points to the usefulness of threads that monitor and analyze these factual, public and transparent behaviors, like this one has the potential to, if we can get past (or carve out another thread for discussion of, please and thank you) orwellian fever dreams.
 

Chris P

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Linked is a list of states with open primaries, where you choose the Dem or GOP ballot when you check in.

I will be interested to see what the spoiler vote turnout will be in these states. How many Dems will vote for Bill Weld to take votes from Trump, and how many Repubs will vote for whichever Dem is trailing by then? My prediction: lots.

Although Virginia is an open primary state, the GOP has decided to select their delegates at the state convention, and not in a primary.
 
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frimble3

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I cannot BELIEVE we missed the whole Senate Impeachment trial because we were knocked offline.

Dammit.
And I have missed you all so much - I can watch it on the news, but here, with people I know, is where I come for commentary.
 

William Haskins

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Election Update: The First Polls Since New Hampshire Show No Big Bounces

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-hasnt-exactly-collapsed-since-new-hampshire/

Three days after the New Hampshire primary, we are finally getting some polls that reflect the new state of the race — including a poll in Nevada, the next state in the voting sequence, for the first time in a full month! And overall, they’re not showing that any candidate has grabbed a ton of momentum out of Iowa or New Hampshire. That’s probably good news for former Vice President Joe Biden, whose firewall in Southern states appears weakened but still standing. But mostly it’s a recipe for a long, drawn-out nominating contest. In fact, our national primary forecast currently says that the single most likely outcome of the primary season is that no candidate gets a majority of pledged delegates.

How the Democratic Primary Could Descend Into Chaos: A Contested Convention and a Snub to Sanders

https://www.newsweek.com/how-democr...aos-contested-convention-snub-sanders-1487442

The emergence of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as one of the top 2020 presidential contenders isn't the only thing that arose from the first Democratic elections of the primary—so did the likelihood for a contested convention.

Although months away with an endless number of twist and turns yet to play out, there is a more than a one-third chance that no candidate wins a majority of the pledged delegates, according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, which could result in a contested convention. Democrats fear how such a chaotic scenario would unfold on live T.V.: World War III on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.

"This thing is a mess," Chris Kofinis, a longtime Democratic strategist, told Newsweek. "The possibility that it could happen could really tear the party apart."

More importantly, a contested convention—or sometimes referred to as a "brokered" convention—means that although someone wins the plurality of delegates, they won't necessarily be the nominee. A first round of delegate voting with no majority candidate means the process spills over into round two, yielding the added wildcard of powerful superdelegates.
 

darkprincealain

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Linked is a list of states with open primaries, where you choose the Dem or GOP ballot when you check in.

I will be interested to see what the spoiler vote turnout will be in these states. How many Dems will vote for Bill Weld to take votes from Trump, and how many Repubs will vote for whichever Dem is trailing by then? My prediction: lots.

Although Missouri is an open primary state, I didn’t ask for the GOP ballot in 2016 and won’t in 2020. We might have clearer direction by then though because we don’t vote until March 10.
 

PostHuman

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I've got all my fingers and toes crossed, hoping and praying for Mike Bloomberg to come out of nowhere and sweep Super Tuesday.
 

Kjbartolotta

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Anybody else feel like the coverage Warren is getting echoes the coverage Clinton got in 2016?

Yes. And I already went through it with Harris so it's extra-fun to get fully on board with EW and watch the same pattern playing out. Don't think either candidate is beyond criticism and can point to both of their mistakes on the campaign trail. But Dem fickleness and the whack media narrative has been brutal. Gonna vote & be done with it, I think following this Primary is no longer worth it to me.
 
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regdog

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Anybody else feel like the coverage Warren is getting echoes the coverage Clinton got in 2016?

Absolutely. It is so disheartening to watch it happen all overe again.
 

MacAllister

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Anybody else feel like the coverage Warren is getting echoes the coverage Clinton got in 2016?

Good god, yes.
I'm becoming increasingly horrified by how the media shapes and spins this entire process by controlling the coverage.
 

lizmonster

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Good god, yes.
I'm becoming increasingly horrified by how the media shapes and spins this entire process by controlling the coverage.

I am seeing a lot of Sanders supporters saying "Now you know how we feel! The press never covers Bernie!" which - what? I see Sanders everywhere.

I mean, I know why this is happening, but it's crazymaking.
 

Brightdreamer

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Anybody else feel like the coverage Warren is getting echoes the coverage Clinton got in 2016?

Another resounding "Yes", and that worries me greatly. (And another "yes" to Bernie Everything despite supporters insisting he's being "denied"; he's about the bottom of my current list, TBH, in no small part because of the rabid fan club.)

The media may not have been solely responsible, but it bears a great deal of the burden for getting us where we are today, with the regime that currently occupies the WH. They seem fully ready, willing, and able to do the same again... though I'm still not entirely convinced of the integrity of any coming election at this point.
 

lizmonster

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The media may not have been solely responsible, but it bears a great deal of the burden for getting us where we are today, with the regime that currently occupies the WH. They seem fully ready, willing, and able to do the same again... though I'm still not entirely convinced of the integrity of any coming election at this point.

It's somewhat mystifying. When it was the Clinton/*rump race, I could sort of understand it, because the guy was so completely outrageous, and ratings. But if you'd gone by the news coverage, you'd have thought he was running unopposed. And now Warren is being specifically erased from conversations about primaries. I don't know if the assumption is "woman can't win, so we're not gonna bother" or if there's something more deliberate going on.

I think there were a lot of factors that went into Clinton's loss, but the MSM bears a big, big chunk of responsibility there. And they've apparently learned nothing at all.
 

Brightdreamer

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I think there were a lot of factors that went into Clinton's loss, but the MSM bears a big, big chunk of responsibility there. And they've apparently learned nothing at all.

The tinfoil-hat-wearer in me wonders if they did indeed learn something: they learned who holds the cash and the leash and they're falling into line...

(dang - double posting again...)
 

lizmonster

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The tinfoil-hat-wearer in me wonders if they did indeed learn something: they learned who holds the cash and the leash and they're falling into line...

I think that's as plausible as any other explanation. Journalism is being decimated; if you're not going for clicks and being supported by whoever's publishing you, you're kind of screwed.
 

William Haskins

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from: What is happening with Elizabeth Warren? 12/3/19

The beginning of Warren's polling dip coincides closely with the October 15 presidential debate. In that debate, Warren was attacked from all sides -- especially by Biden and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg -- for a) her support for a plan that would totally eliminate private health insurance and b) her lack of specifics on how she would pay for it.

It was Warren's worst debate of the race to date -- and even when she released a detailed funding plan for Medicare for All, it was met with a lukewarm reception. Warren followed all that up with a lackluster showing in the November 20 debate.

Add it all up and there's plenty of reason to believe that Warren's full-fledged support for Medicare for All -- coupled with her less-than-successful attempts to defend that position in the last two debates -- led to her current reduced status in the race.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/02/politics/elizabeth-warren-2020-momentum/index.html

from: What happened to Elizabeth Warren? Newsday - 1/7/2020

That’s a common explanation for Warren’s weakness. Democrats and pundits point to the release of Warren’s poorly received $52 trillion health care plan as the moment her campaign began to founder. “It’s not true that New Hampshire Democrats don’t like Warren,” one senior Democratic Granite State source said. “They just hate her Medicare For All plan.”

But even the Medicare issue highlights Warren’s authenticity problem. One reason she was forced to release the politically damaging specifics of her plan was because she’d spent weeks refusing to say whether her proposal would require a middle-class tax hike. She gave so many obviously evasive answers that late-night TV host Stephen Colbert begged her on the air to find a better response.

Warren supporters are quick to suggest that she’s the victim of misogyny, that conversations about authenticity and likability are just code words for being uncomfortable with a woman nominee. But that hardly makes sense in New Hampshire, where three of the four Democrats in the congressional delegation are women, the two previous governors are women and where Hillary Clinton won both the 2008 primary and the 2016 general election.

These are voters who are more than willing to vote for a woman. At the moment, however, they appear reluctant to vote for Liz Warren.

And that’s a “candidate” problem.

https://www.newsday.com/opinion/com...0-election-democrat-campaign-polls-1.40356921