Dem 2020 Race: The Road to Super Tuesday

lizmonster · Feb 17, 2020

I'm less interested in the reasons for polling changes (which may indeed be legit) and more interested in the fact that she is being left out of major reporting on the primaries. Her name is left out of headlines that include people who finished further down than she did.

The meager coverage Clinton got was largely negative as well.

ETA: Regardless of the frustrations of watching yet another woman get ignored out of office (if Klobacher gets more traction, watch for the same phenomenon), I will vote for whoever wins the nom. But Warren gets my primary vote.

Prozyan · Feb 17, 2020

lizmonster said:
I'the fact that she is being left out of major reporting on the primaries. Her name is left out of headlines that include people who finished further down than she did.

That probably has more to do with the fact that she scored in single digits in both states. Biden is the only name who finished lower included in headlines that leave Warren out and that is because he was literally forever considered a lock for the nomination and his terrible results are actually headlines.

Warren is doing about as well as expected since, as William pointed out, her disastrous roll-out of her medicare-for-all plan. A candidate performing as expected isn't exactly headline material.

Klobuchar got plenty of headline attention for both her outstanding debate performance (though she's been solid all along) and her strong showing in New Hampshire.

lizmonster · Feb 17, 2020

I'm going to keep some running totals on news coverage, as I did in the 2016 general (not here, but my posts are still on Facebook).

Warren was third in Iowa. Her 4th place finish in NH was more shocking than Biden's continued fall, but she wasn't mentioned at all. It's not about good or bad coverage; it's about no coverage.

I'm hardly the only one noticing this. Chuck Wendig said it well.

PostHuman · Feb 17, 2020

lizmonster said:
Anybody else feel like the coverage Warren is getting echoes the coverage Clinton got in 2016?

Definitely! Been a supporter of Hillary since 2008, and I see some echoes in how she was covered during that primary in particular. There is a kind of consensus among many outlets that it's now Bernie's race to lose, but I believe (and hope) this primary is still wide open, impossible to guess the outcome yet.

In 2016 even during primary season there was unfortunately the compounding issue of international troll factories working overtime + legitimate publications reporting on outrageous fake news and memes that sometimes amplified the false claims. I suspect this will get worse as we near the general election.

William Haskins · Feb 17, 2020

lizmonster said:
Her 4th place finish in NH was more shocking than Biden's continued fall, but she wasn't mentioned at all. It's not about good or bad coverage; it's about no coverage.

that is just patently false:

https://www.google.com/search?q=WAR...UFWq0KHY9_CS4Q_AUoAXoECBgQAw&biw=1536&bih=767

plenty of coverage, but coverage commensurate with a failing candidate struggling to stay on message.

any chicken-and-egg debate over whether her slip in polls soured the media narrative or vice-versa is pretty much an exercise in confirmation bias, especially if you discount her serious missteps in medicare for all, her tapdancing retreat on soleimani, etc...

lizmonster · Feb 17, 2020

As I said, I'll be tracking media coverage. Right now I'm tracking the NYT, WaPo, the LA Times, and the Boston Globe. Trends (or not) will become obvious over time.

As for today? If you go by these papers, Bloomberg is clearly the front runner. I've already had one FB friend tell me he's voting for Bloomberg because he's "the only one who can beat Trump."

lizmonster · Feb 17, 2020

William Haskins said:
plenty of coverage, but coverage commensurate with a failing candidate struggling to stay on message.

Respectfully, I think both of us are responding from places of bias. I'm going to stop now. When I get enough data on news coverage, I'll post again.

cbenoi1 · Feb 17, 2020

Prozyan said:
A candidate performing as expected isn't exactly headline material.

This. Don't blame the media for lackluster coverage. Blame her campaign manager.

-cb

William Haskins · Feb 17, 2020

lizmonster said:
Respectfully, I think both of us are responding from places of bias. I'm going to stop now. When I get enough data on news coverage, I'll post again.

i look forward to some data.

but, respectfully, i've provided mainstream documentation for my statements.

Underdawg47 · Feb 17, 2020

I'm looking forward to seeing Bernie rise in the polls. He has great policies and a great grass roots push behind him.

William Haskins · Feb 17, 2020

[h=1]Elizabeth Warren Announces Saturday Rally In Seattle[/h] SEATTLE (AP) — Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren will campaign in Washington a day after the ballots for the March 10 presidential primary are sent to the state’s nearly 4.5 million voters.

The Seattle Times reported that Warren’s free-to-the-public event will take place at the Seattle Center Armory Saturday evening, the same day as the caucuses in Nevada. Ballots for the state’s presidential primary will be sent out Friday.

Event Details:

Seattle Center Armory

305 Harrison Street, Seattle

Sat, Feb. 22, 2020

Doors: 4:30 p.m.

Event begins: 6 p.m.

More details here.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...rally-in-seattle/ar-BB105W82?ocid=hplocalnews

darkprincealain · Feb 18, 2020

lizmonster said:
ETA: Regardless of the frustrations of watching yet another woman get ignored out of office (if Klobacher gets more traction, watch for the same phenomenon), I will vote for whoever wins the nom. But Warren gets my primary vote.

I was debating between Yang and Warren for a minute, but now that he’s dropped out, I think I’m here now too.

RichardGarfinkle · Feb 18, 2020

I'm definitely pulling for Warren. The Illinois primary isn't for another month. So here's hoping she's still in. I'm definitely annoyed at the press dismissal of her.

William Haskins · Feb 18, 2020

RichardGarfinkle said:
I'm definitely pulling for Warren. The Illinois primary isn't for another month. So here's hoping she's still in. I'm definitely annoyed at the press dismissal of her.

press dismissals in the last 24 hours:

The New York Times
How Elizabeth Warren’s Camp Is Seeking to Regain the
Spotlight
RENO, Nev. — A bad month for Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts keeps getting worse. She finished in a respectable third place in ...
7 hours ago

The Nation
The Woman Behind Elizabeth Warren's Foreign Policy
The campaign has kept Sasha Baker out of the spotlight, but she wants to shake up the consensus from the inside.
6 hours ago

NBCNews.com
Warren says Sanders 'has a lot of questions to answer'
about his supporters' online attacks
Elizabeth Warren says Bernie Sanders "has a lot of questions to answer" about how his supporters responded when his supporters attacked a ...
11 hours ago

McClatchy Washington Bureau
Fight or unite? Elizabeth Warren’s mixed message
complicates her comeback bid
Elizabeth Warren's New Hampshire primary night speech warned against factional party infighting and presented her as the unifying candidate ...
17 hours ago

NBCNews.com
Warren faces pressure to revive fighter persona after
'unity' pitch falls flat
After losing Iowa and New Hampshire, Elizabeth Warren faces questions about the viability of her pitch to unify moderates and liberals.
1 day ago

MSNBC
Warren on Bloomberg, women in politics, and ultra-
millionaire tax
2020 Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren addresses Mike Bloomberg, women succeeding in U.S. politics, funding ...
1 day ago

Alpha Echo · Feb 18, 2020

I'm so glad AW is back up. I've been trying to navigate all this craziness, but the most intelligent conversation around it all is right here. Missed you guys.

cbenoi1 · Feb 18, 2020

William Haskins said:
press dismissals in the last 24 hours:

The first wave begins with "there must be something dead wrong with the mainstream media".

The next wave you have conspiration theories.

Sounds familiar?

-cb

William Haskins · Feb 18, 2020

Marist national poll:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pb...l-results-election-2020/#sthash.XuH6lUKJ.dpbs

Feb 13-16, 2020

Marist College

Sanders
31%

Bloomberg
19%

Biden
15%

Warren
12%

Klobuchar
9%

Buttigieg
8%

Steyer
2%

Auteur · Feb 18, 2020

Yay, Bernie!

William Haskins · Feb 18, 2020

New NC and California Numbers

WRAL News poll: 3 tied atop Democratic presidential field in NC

Raleigh, N.C. — Two weeks out from North Carolina's March 3 primary, three Democrats are in essentially a dead heat for the state's presidential nomination, according to a new WRAL News poll.

Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders each garnered 22 percent support, while former Vice President Joe Biden was at 20 percent in the exclusive poll, conducted last Thursday through Sunday by SurveyUSA.

Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg led the second tier of Democratic candidates in the poll, with 11 percent support, followed by U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren at 8 percent and Amy Klobuchar at 5 percent. Eleven percent of respondents remain undecided.

SurveyUSA polled 2,335 registered voters in the scientific poll, producing a margin of error on the approval questions of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Of those registered voters, 698 indicated they would likely cast a Democratic ballot by Election Day, while another 501 said they would likely cast a Republican ballot, producing margins of error on individual race questions of plus or minus 5 to 5.6 percentage points.

https://www.wral.com/wral-news-poll-3-tied-atop-democratic-presidential-field-in-nc/18959248/

SurveyUSA poll: Michael Bloomberg surges to 2nd place among California voters ahead of Super Tuesday

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- With Super Tuesday just two weeks away, an exclusive Eyewitness News poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows that Michael Bloomberg has surged into second place among California voters.

The survey's results were released Tuesday morning, just hours after the former New York City mayor qualified for his first Democratic presidential debate.

Sen. Bernie Sanders still leads with 25 percent, but Bloomberg is only 4 percentage points behind.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is in third place, according to the survey, followed closely by former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Candidates in the single digits include Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Tom Steyer.

Bernie Sanders, 25%
Mike Bloomberg, 21%
Joe Biden, 15%
Pete Buttigieg, 12%
Elizabeth Warren, 9%
Amy Klobuchar, 6%

https://abc7.com/5943914/

William Haskins · Feb 18, 2020

2/18 NBC/WSJ National Poll

per Steve Kornacki

@SteveKornacki

New NBC/WSJ national Dem poll

Sanders 27% (unchanged from January poll)
Biden 15% (-11)
Bloomberg 14% (+5)
Warren 14% (-1)
Buttigieg 13% (+6)
Klobuchar 7% (+2)

Brightdreamer · Feb 18, 2020

I sorta wish some of the also-rans would pull out and refocus efforts (such as helping retain or gain seats in the Senate and elsewhere, even at the state level); we should be narrowing the field more by now, IMHO.

MaeZe · Feb 18, 2020

lizmonster said:
I am seeing a lot of Sanders supporters saying "Now you know how we feel! The press never covers Bernie!" which - what? I see Sanders everywhere.

I mean, I know why this is happening, but it's crazymaking.

Trump supporters are whining he doesn't get any coverage when the scumbag is in the news 24/7.

MaeZe · Feb 18, 2020

Sadly, Klobuchar had an amateur interview on Telemundo. It was awful. Not so much she didn't know the Mexican president's name, but the rest of it was meaningless superficial rambling like you'd hear from a kid that didn't do their homework.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeOMjXDMeNw

First minute:30 goes well. Then she goes downhill from there when the only thing she can say about Obrador is that he was recently elected. Asked about any of his policies she speaks in platitudes about the new trade deal and immigration reform.

It was cringeworthy and I did have such hopes for her candidacy.

It's not that hard folks, Mexico is a disaster caused by the drug cartels, murder rates are off the scales, there are still too many corrupt officials... sheesh, pick up a newspaper in a southern border state.

Had she known more than "I want to work with immigrants" she could have gotten past the moderator digging and digging about his name gotcha. Instead she looked embarrassed.

William Haskins · Feb 18, 2020

Brightdreamer said:
I sorta wish some of the also-rans would pull out and refocus efforts (such as helping retain or gain seats in the Senate and elsewhere, even at the state level); we should be narrowing the field more by now, IMHO.

out of genuine curiosity based on your warren post upthread: what distinguishes an “also-ran” from a “my candidate is polling poorly but it’s the media’s fault”?

Brightdreamer · Feb 18, 2020

William Haskins said:
out of genuine curiosity based on your warren post upthread: what distinguishes an “also-ran” from a “my candidate is polling poorly but it’s the media’s fault”?

I mean the ones further down in the polls, below the top five or six, who don't seem to be getting much traction. Still too many names down there, and many battles that need to be fought that could use their efforts if their candidacy isn't gaining momentum by now.

Dem 2020 Race: The Road to Super Tuesday

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