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Climate: Climate models have accurately predicted global heating

Introversion

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Findings confirm reliability of projections of temperature changes over last 50 years

The Guardian said:
Climate models have accurately predicted global heating for the past 50 years, a study has found.

The findings confirm that since as early as 1970, climate scientists have had a solid fundamental understanding of the Earth’s climate system and the ability to project how it will respond to continued increases in the greenhouse effect. Since climate models have accurately anticipated global temperature changes so far, we can expect projections of future warming to be reliable as well.

The research examines the accuracy of 17 models published over the past five decades, beginning with a 1970 study and including 1981 and 1988 models led by James Hansen, the former Nasa climatologist who testified to the US Senate in 1988 about the impacts of anthropogenic global heating. The study also includes the first four reports by the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC).

“We found that climate models – even those published back in the 1970s – did remarkably well, with 14 out of the 17 model projections indistinguishable from what actually occurred,” said Zeke Hausfather, of the University of California, Berkeley, and lead author of the paper.

...
 

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I invite all the Climate Crisis fanciers to come to Australia and fight the bushfires.
Oh, those are y'all's fault, because you didn't rake your forests. ;P
 

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:( The photos I've seen are purely heartbreaking.
 

Woollybear

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The bad news is the models are very likely just as accurate, if not more so, going forward. Warming is accelerating, emissions are out of control, the population increases by 200,000 people per day and none of us want to offend anyone.

I see a possible solution but it's not a good one. I suspect I'm not the only person who sees it.
 

Helix

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The bad news is the models are very likely just as accurate, if not more so, going forward. Warming is accelerating, emissions are out of control, the population increases by 200,000 people per day and none of us want to offend anyone.

I see a possible solution but it's not a good one. I suspect I'm not the only person who sees it.

Reducing excessive consumption in 'developed' countries and moving to renewable energy? :Thumbs:
 

Woollybear

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I think that doesn't get us there. It's a good start :)
 

Enlightened

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So invest in tropical vacation property in Greenland now?

Joking aside, it would be interesting to see what Sci-Fi and Fantasy writers would conjure as solves, and what detriments would result.

Global warming, plastics in the oceans.... It's all taxing the system hard. Difficult to tell what will happen in the future (in addition to global warming).
 
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Helix

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One of the (many) things that I find appalling about the selfish, self-serving, hypocritical ghouls that run our government is that they refuse to do anything about the climate crisis because Australia 'only' contributes a small proportion of greenhouse gases. 'Look at India!' they say. 'Look at China!'. Yeah, rightio. Where are India and China getting their coal from, you despicable bunch of :censored
 

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This starts to get at the solution. And who it is that might enact it.
 

mccardey

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The bad news is the models are very likely just as accurate, if not more so, going forward. Warming is accelerating, emissions are out of control, the population increases by 200,000 people per day and none of us want to offend anyone.

I see a possible solution but it's not a good one. I suspect I'm not the only person who sees it.

I’m listening ...
 

Roxxsmom

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I think that doesn't get us there. It's a good start :)

Carousel?

Hope not, as my generation will likely be the first one asked to report.

There's more alarmism about dropping birth rates these days than there are people (even among environmental groups) pointing out that increasing population, paired with rising standards of living, means more greenhouse gasses.

I'm having trouble understanding why a leveling off, even decline, in overall human population would be a bad thing. I get that human labor has historically been needed to generate the wealth needed to support the elderly as lifespans have increased, but given how automation and AI allow fewer workers to be more productive, I don't see this as compelling an argument for infinite population growth as it once was...
 
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mccardey

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One of the (many) things I loved about reading Richard Powers’ “Overstory” is how it still has me knee-jerk-reacting with “but what about the trees?” to every suggested remedy that doesn’t include, yanno, trees.
 

Woollybear

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A declining population gets us there--and is not exclusive to more sustainable living.

There are two different ways to reduce the population.
 

mccardey

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A declining population gets us there--and is not exclusive to more sustainable living.

There are two different ways to reduce the population.
are those your two ways? I mean they’re fine, obviously, and most people would support them. In theory. As actions for other people in other places...
 

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Just running the numbers, ma'am. And I doubt I'm the only one.

One of these methods to reduce population is decidedly *not* fine.

But, this is where the climate rubber hits the road. In my opinion.
 

Woollybear

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Carousel?

Hope not, as my generation will likely be the first one asked to report.


Funnily enough, I was reminiscing about Logan's Run the other day, how it is one of the few 1970s shows that has not been rebooted.
 

mccardey

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Just running the numbers, ma'am. And I doubt I'm the only one.

One of these methods to reduce population is decidedly *not* fine.

But, this is where the climate rubber hits the road. In my opinion.
You’re being too coy for me. Are you suggesting war? I’m against war. Are you suggesting euthanising old people? I’m fine with that - I’ve already got a kit from Exit. Are you suggesting mandated euthanasia of old people? If there’s really good drugs involved (like the ones from my surgeon) I’ll sign up for that. Except how do we know we’ll get the good drugs? And what if we’re David Attenborough or Richard powers and therefore still useful? And if there’s an escape clause, how do we know all the wealthy white guys wont just buy an exemption? In fact - how do we know all the old wealthy white guys wont just end up owning the drugs and the centres for euthanasia and just exempt themselves and make an -excuse me - killing along the way?

I don’t see this ending well. I see education, ethics and choice being more important. Also, trees.
 
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Roxxsmom

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Funnily enough, I was reminiscing about Logan's Run the other day, how it is one of the few 1970s shows that has not been rebooted.

I was remembering the movie. Forgot it was ever a TV show. Did they ever remake the movie? All the remakes of various movies have blurred together for me.

I suspect Patty is suggesting mandated controls on reproduction. I don't see that happening any time soon, though, because of all the angst from economists over the way birth rates are already declining in western democracies and in some eastern ones (like Japan) too.
 
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Brightdreamer

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Funnily enough, I was reminiscing about Logan's Run the other day, how it is one of the few 1970s shows that has not been rebooted.

Tangential to the thread, but I kept hearing about a reboot a few years ago... IMDB has a page for a newer version of Logan's Run that hasn't apparently been officially updated since 2016, and the trivia page stops updating after yet another director took over in 2018 and a rumor that there might be a female lead, so it may be dead in the water or stalled out indefinitely. (In the right hands, a reboot can be a good thing. In the wrong hands, which is too often the case... From the looks of things, they were going to revert to the book on some points - I haven't read the book, but they were going back to the original death age of 21, not 30, implying that they might be aiming for the lucrative YA/teen audience.)

On the model being accurate... gee, one might think there was something to that thar newfangled "science" stuff after all.
 

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Mccardey--I'm saying that with the behavior of the current crop of world 'leaders,' their greed and utter lack of scruples on full display around the world, I doubt some of these people would stop at eradicating people.

Am I wrong? Well, we hope so. But I never would have imagined seeing the unconscionable things we are living through today.
 
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sandree

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I just watched One Child Nation about China’s population control attempt. Brutal...
 

mccardey

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Mccardey--I'm saying that with the behavior of the current crop of world 'leaders,' their greed and utter lack of scruples on full display around the world, I doubt some of these people would stop at eradicating people.

Am I wrong? Well, we hope so. But I never would have imagined seeing the unconscionable things we are living through today.
Oh. So - not a positive option. Dammit.

between you and me, I’m sure it will come to that. We’re going to end up with a world full of dreadful old white guys and their camp followers. It will be like that for a while if the planet is lucky. It will end like that, of course, if the luck runs out.
 
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Enlightened

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Sarcasm tangent.... Ultimately, the problem lies with the sun. It's not due to burn out for another 5 billion years or so. When that happens, Earth will turn to a sphere of ice then our galaxy will be torn apart by Andromeda when they collide way down the road.

End Sarcasm.

7 billion cavemen vs. 7 billion people today.... Population isn't the issue; it's the environmental abuse. The first Industrial Revolution created poverty, environmental pollution, and so forth. It's been getting worse and it's not just the western world doing it anymore.