Status Quo: The Second Round of Democratic Debates

William Haskins

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Detroit Debates Deliver Meager Returns for Biden’s Challengers

Thirty-two percent of Democratic primary voters said they still want to see former Vice President Joe Biden at the top of the party’s 2020 ticket, according to new Morning Consult polling conducted after the Tuesday and Wednesday debates in Detroit. That figure hasn’t shifted much since the end of the first round of debates, when 33 percent said Biden was their first choice.

No candidate saw movement outside the survey’s margin of error of 2 percentage points. The Aug. 1 poll was conducted among 2,419 registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state.

https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/

Morning Consult Numbers July 25 vs Aug 1

CANDIDATE
7/25
8/1
Biden31%32%
Sanders18%18%
Warren
13%15%
Harris
13%
10%
Buttigieg6%6%
Booker3%3%
O'Rourke3%3%
Yang3%2%
 
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Roxxsmom

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Detroit Debates Deliver Meager Returns for Biden’s Challengers

Thirty-two percent of Democratic primary voters said they still want to see former Vice President Joe Biden at the top of the party’s 2020 ticket, according to new Morning Consult polling conducted after the Tuesday and Wednesday debates in Detroit. That figure hasn’t shifted much since the end of the first round of debates, when 33 percent said Biden was their first choice.

No candidate saw movement outside the survey’s margin of error of 2 percentage points. The Aug. 1 poll was conducted among 2,419 registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state.

https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/

Morning Consult Numbers July 25 vs Aug 1

CANDIDATE
7/25
8/1
Biden 31%32%
Sanders18%18%
Warren13%15%
Buttigieg6%6%
Booker3%3%
O'Rourke3%3%
Yang3%2%

What happened to Harris?
 

William Haskins

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i somehow lost her when building the table. fixed now.

she fell 3 points.
 

frimble3

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So, if you draw a line under Harris, thank the rest for their service and send them home, you're left with half the field, those with over 10 points in the polls.
Which at least declutters the landscape, and allows for more focus on viable candidates.
 

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There are some advantages to Biden being the Democratic candidate to go up against Trump. He has wide appeal and will get the votes of many independents. Nobody's going to accuse him of being a "socialist," which is the conservative bogeyman. He's well liked in Congress, which may help him get things done, although big money donors are really all Republicans care about. And, since he's uncontroversial, that may help Democrats win back the Senate and hold onto the House.

It would be nice to have a candidate people could get excited about, but we have to take what we can get. I just wish he didn't seem so frail.
 

William Haskins

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So, if you draw a line under Harris, thank the rest for their service and send them home, you're left with half the field, those with over 10 points in the polls.
Which at least declutters the landscape, and allows for more focus on viable candidates.

...
The next round of debates takes place Sept. 12, possibly spilling into Sept. 13, and is likely to host a smaller cadre of candidates. The Democratic National Committee’s qualifications for the third debate are much stricter: Candidates need to have collected donations from 130,000 people and earned 2 percent of the vote in at least four DNC-approved polls by Aug. 28, among other requirements.

Per a Politico analysis, only eight candidates currently qualify: Biden, Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Harris, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (Texas), Sanders and Warren.
 

William Haskins

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https://democrats.org/news/third-debate/

The qualification criteria for the September debate will also remain in place for October’s DNC-sanctioned debate. To qualify for the September and October debates, candidates must meet both the Polling Threshold and the Grassroots Fundraising Threshold, as detailed below:

1. Polling Threshold. Candidates must receive 2% or more support in at least four polls (which may be national polls, or polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada) meeting the following criteria (“Qualifying Poll Criteria”):

  • Each poll must be sponsored by an approved organization, which presently includes the following: Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Des Moines Register, Fox News, Monmouth University, NBC News, New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), Quinnipiac University, University of New Hampshire, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Washington Post, and Winthrop University. Any candidate’s four qualifying polls must be conducted by different organizations, or if by the same organization, must be in different geographical areas. The DNC and its media partners reserve the right to add a Nevada-specific poll sponsor to this list in the near future.
  • For the September debate, each poll must be publicly released between June 28, 2019, and August 28, 2019. Deadlines for qualifying polls ahead of the October debate will be released in the future.
  • Each poll’s candidate support question must have been conducted by reading or presenting a list of Democratic presidential primary candidates to respondents. (Poll questions using an open-ended or un-aided question to gauge presidential primary support will not count).
  • Each polling result must be the top-line number listed in the original public release from the approved sponsoring organization/institution, whether or not it is a rounded or weighted number.

2. Grassroots Fundraising Threshold. Candidates must submit a certification, executed by the Presidential candidate’s campaign Treasurer, demonstrating that the campaign has received donations from a minimum of (1) 130,000 unique donors; and (2) 400 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states. For the September debate, qualifying donations must be received by 11:59 P.M. on August 28, 2019. Deadlines for qualifying donations ahead of the October debate will be released in the future. An acceptable certification must provide or attach adequate verifiable evidence to show that the fundraising threshold has been reached and may include verification from ActBlue or NGP VAN regarding the campaign’s fundraising.
 
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MaeZe

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Biden has another gaffe, thinking he was VP when the Parkland shooting took place. He wasn't. But it wasn't just a tongue slip, it was a more elaborate false memory.

Slate
It seems Joe Biden can’t escape the gaffe curse. The frontrunner to become the Democratic presidential nominee told reporters in Iowa on Saturday that “those kids in Parkland came up to see me when I was vice president.” But when they went to Capitol Hill, Biden said, lawmakers were “basically cowering, not wanting to see them. They did not want to face it on camera.” The problem with this tale? The shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., that left 17 dead took place in 2018, more than a year after Biden left the White House.
 

Introversion

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I’m not sure why Biden is the frontrunner in polls. Is it merely because more people remember his name? He seems pretty mediocre at best, always has seemed that to me. Is it because of his time as Obama’s veep? Is his support a nostalgia vote?

I don’t get it.
 

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I’m not sure why Biden is the frontrunner in polls. Is it merely because more people remember his name? He seems pretty mediocre at best, always has seemed that to me. Is it because of his time as Obama’s veep? Is his support a nostalgia vote?

I don’t get it.

The other popular candidate lacks a Y chromosome.
 

Introversion

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Maybe it’s that simple, but I still don’t get it. Why do Democrats, notoriously not the party of old white men, seemingly prefer their candidates to be old white men?
 

ElaineA

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He's well liked in Congress, which may help him get things done

The days when that mattered went out in the late '00's.

Biden is so clearly sundowning, it's alarming. Maybe those of us who have watched our elderly parents decline can recognize it with a little more clarity. He's never going to make 2 terms, that much I'd bet on.
 

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Maybe it’s that simple, but I still don’t get it. Why do Democrats, notoriously not the party of old white men, seemingly prefer their candidates to be old white men?

To be less flip: I think there are a lot of issues that go into it. The cycle of "young people feel dismissed" --> "young people don't vote" --> "young people's issues are insufficiently addressed" --> "young people feel dismissed" is centuries old.

Also, I think the Dems *are* the party of old white men. Progressive old white men, sure, but still. There's passionate recognition that evicting the current nightmare is the priority, and many in the party feel the pragmatic choice would be an old white man.

I suspect there's also some fear of what the Bernie Bros wrought last time. The Bros are unlikely do go after Biden the way they did Clinton.
 

Introversion

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Biden is so clearly sundowning, it's alarming. Maybe those of us who have watched our elderly parents decline can recognize it with a little more clarity. He's never going to make 2 terms, that much I'd bet on.

But that didn't stop Americans from reelecting Reagan, and I'd argue he was as clearly stumbling mentally by the end of his first term.

I dunno. I want to vote for Elizabeth Warren. I like her progressive cred. But I think she's being pretty effectively painted in social media as someone who'll lead us to wrack & ruin ala Venezuela, and that "Pocahontas" baloney is going to haunt her through the entire election.

I'm starting to think that Kamala Harris may have the best chance of peeling away a few voters who historically vote Republican but are very unhappy with the festering id storm that is Donald Trump, while at the same time being able to bring enough progressive voters to the booth? Certainly she won't take crap from Trump in debates, or on the campaign trail, without dishing it back.
 

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I’m not sure why Biden is the frontrunner in polls. Is it merely because more people remember his name? He seems pretty mediocre at best, always has seemed that to me. Is it because of his time as Obama’s veep? Is his support a nostalgia vote?

I don’t get it.

Most people remember his name. The other candidates have to make themselves known. He also has strong ties to the older African-American community. The other bit is that news has been slowly to cover them all so apart from the debates, you're not seeing them often enough to remember names.

Warren is making some grounds. I've met many who were on the Sanders or Bust train in 2016 jump onto the Warren train without a regret or consider her a superior version of Sanders.
 

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I dunno. I want to vote for Elizabeth Warren. I like her progressive cred. But I think she's being pretty effectively painted in social media as someone who'll lead us to wrack & ruin ala Venezuela, and that "Pocahontas" baloney is going to haunt her through the entire election.

I'm starting to think that Kamala Harris may have the best chance of peeling away a few voters who historically vote Republican but are very unhappy with the festering id storm that is Donald Trump, while at the same time being able to bring enough progressive voters to the booth? Certainly she won't take crap from Trump in debates, or on the campaign trail, without dishing it back.

I have a longer & more nuanced take that this, but to keep it short & laudatory they're both kick-ass candidates who can beat Trump and are gonna have to face some familiar BS to do so.
 

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I’d also like to hear your more nuanced take, actually... :Thumbs:
 

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I have a longer & more nuanced take that this, but to keep it short & laudatory they're both kick-ass candidates who can beat Trump and are gonna have to face some familiar BS to do so.

I agree. Whoever the Democrats choose, they're going to get a ton of flack from Trump supporters because that's how the GOP does politics. Trump supporters and the far right even more so. The Democrats need to expect this and stand their ground. Don't let Democrats turn on each other with the whole "we chose the wrong candidate, if we'd chosen (any name here) then that wouldn't have happened" - it would have.

I also wouldn't mind reading your nuanced take.

My take is rather less nuanced: lefties need to stick together and get behind one candidate even if you don't agree with them 100%, because they are still lightyears better than Trump. In the UK the Lib Dems won a crucial by election that's reduced BoJo's majority to one. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...odds-win-cuts-johnson-commons-majority-to-one This was in part due to the three main remain parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid Cymru (Party for Wales)) choosing to not stand against each other to avoid splitting the vote.

"Swinson also thanked Plaid Cymru and the Green party for not contesting this by election so as to avoid splitting the remain vote. [...] The leader of Plaid Cymru, Adam Price, said: “The people of Brecon and Radnorshire have spoken. It’s now time that people throughout these islands are heard, too, in a final say referendum. But if the prime minister is intent on a general election, he should know that Plaid Cymru and the other pro-remain parties are committed to cooperating so that we beat Brexit once and for all.” "

Meanwhile, the Tories were whining that they were up against an unofficial coalition. (LOL yeah, like they agreed to jump into bed with the DUP before the election... **eye roll**)

Anyway, the Democrats need to put their differences aside and focus on getting Trump out of office, and get the electorate to do the same. I get that you have your system for choosing a candidate but you need to focus on making it as positive a campaign as possible and everyone who doesn't get chosen being vocal in their support of whoever gets chosen.
 

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Latest poll: Biden 33, Sanders + Warren 39. Don't forget when you put the split votes together, Biden on has a ~30% showing. That's not exactly running away with things.

Harris is disappointing giving the same speech several times now about how her mother asked her what was Harris going to do about it when Harris came home complaining.

I suppose it's too much to hope for a better female candidate. I would love for someone to switch the genders up for these candidates, what would Harris sound like coming from Booker? What would Warren sound like coming from Sanders? Klobuchar sounding like Buttigieg? The point would be to test why none of these women are particularly impressive.

I know that's not popular around here. But in my defense I was pro-Clinton since she ran against Obama. I thought her experience outweighed his. I can list all the reasons I thought Clinton was a better choice than Sanders. So I'm not buying it that the gender of these candidates has a major effect on my perception.

Warren is great but neither her nor Sanders are selling their ideas in a practical way. They just aren't. As soon as Warren said in the debate she'd do away with private health insurance, she lost millions of voters. Sanders is still waiting for that revolution of young people and previously apathetic voters. Sadly, they aren't coming.

I am now starting to look at Tom Steyer. I was already on board with his need-to-impeach campaign.

I'm still keeping an open mind, especially for one of the female candidates to have a break out moment.
 
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lizmonster

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I get that you have your system for choosing a candidate but you need to focus on making it as positive a campaign as possible and everyone who doesn't get chosen being vocal in their support of whoever gets chosen.

My understanding is Warren and Harris in particular have been treating each other with great respect.

The big sinner in the previous primary was Sanders. I still have friends who spout the dark web conspiracy theory BS he spouted about Clinton. He doesn't seem quite as vitriolic this time through, and yeah, I suspect that has a lot to do with the gender of the person he's polling behind.

To be clear, I'll still vote for his unpleasant, entitled self if he wins the nom.
 

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He doesn't seem quite as vitriolic this time through, and yeah, I suspect that has a lot to do with the gender of the person he's polling behind.

I've seen a lot of people on his campaign (David Sirota, Nina Turner, BrieBrie Joy) saying some stuff that feels pretty familiar from last time, so YMMV.
 

Gregg

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Latest poll: Biden 33, Sanders + Warren 39. Don't forget when you put the split votes together, Biden on has a ~30% showing. That's not exactly running away with things.

.

Isn't that how Trump won the nomination? His opposition was split among several candidates and didn't come together until it was too late. Same thing could happen to the Dems this time.