Question about future demographics of ethnicities and invasions in countries

Introversion · Jul 18, 2019

Shadow555 said:
What if I did this as more of a graphic novel or comic book? Would that require less research?

That seems like asking, "What if I wrote a movie script instead?" Well, is it a G-rated kids' film?

Edited to add: I'm currently reading the graphic novel Berlin by Jason Lutes. It's anything but "less research". It's brutal, graphic in every sense of the word, and it's a clearly adult novel. Since the author is writing about a real period in history, he necessarily had to do his research to carry it off successfully, and it really shows.

I give you lots of props for this as I'd be so afraid to step into an altered history of what happened of my fear of getting those angry for what happened to their ancestors history and others taking offense to it

Someone will be offended at almost anything you write. Don't do it on purpose. Research as much as you can.

Why couldn't I just build on the characters story then of where they are today and maybe have it mentioned that through history they had this ancestral heritage, like Arabian, Egyptian, Indian, any European, West & North African or just not even mention it? Maybe by my worlds timeframe everyone is just mixed? But that could make it seem like there are no such things as races anymore and all are the same?

You can try to write color-blind to race, ethnicity, etc. If you've got wars going on, though, history counts. Who attacks who, and why. Race, ethnicities, religion, play into it.

This may be a great idea for me to look into, maybe then I don't have to get the religion so much involved as this shows the times have changing or a "what if" scenario if something like this occurred and it's further into the future. Could something like this work?

Write it and see?

So further I go into the future, it would be less relatable to an audience to accept?

Well, I think people 100 years from now are still going to act petty, greedy, loving, hateful, etc. But their slang will be different, the way technology and climate change and recent wars shape their worries, their language, etc will be different.

100 years ago, we didn't have: Microwave ovens, cell phones, the Internet, television, commercial radio broadcasts. In the U.S., women couldn't yet vote. We didn't yet know about galaxies and that ours is just one of trillions. No white man had yet climbed Mt. Everest. Airplanes were primitive; commercial air travel had started just a few years earlier. No interstate highway system yet built. There were only 48 states. We'd not yet experienced the horrors of WW2 and Hitler's genocide. We'd yet to experience the Great Depression. Climate change wasn't yet a concern. We'd yet to discover antibiotics, and many people died of what we think of today as trivial afflictions.

Technology advances quicker every decade. In another 100 years, climate change will be a serious problem if not an existential crisis for mankind. So, I don't think you need to worry about making your 100-years-from-now characters relatable. They'll be people. But you'll need to imagine a lot of their history, to "sell" your readers on it.

PostHuman · Jul 18, 2019

Shadow555 said:
Like if Russia was to want to take over certain territory, where would they most likely try to occupy? Most of Eastern Europe? Central Asia? Southeast Asia? Thailand? Vietnam?

They seem to be already working at a more effective way to take over first CIS and then NATO countries from within without costly military hardware/manpower. They took their existing internal propaganda teams that influence public opinion in rural/provincial Russia and directed them to focus on neighboring countries, seeking to prop up candidates favorable to their interests. They have already begun to use these same teams to influence elections in 27 countries, most notably Italy, France, Germany, UK, US, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey and Spain. Provided they continue these efforts which are not easily countered with tools of modern democracy, eventually they may control the policy of various nations without requiring local military presence (or perhaps even being invited to establish military presence)

Shadow555 said:
Where would China and North Korea try to take over or increase their military bases?

China has adopted an approach somewhat similar to Russia in expanding influence without military action by financing the building of ports, train systems, mass transit, airports etc in various countries. Because these transactions involved financially unsound projects, it has been considered a new kind of colonialism and in some cases China used the debt to take possession of the port or influence policy. For example Djibouti's debt went from 50% of GDP to 80% after China financed construction of a large port and they were also permitted to build a Chinese military base. In Sri Lanka China has already taken possession of the port after the government defaulted.

Shadow555 said:
What about the US? If they were to increase military bases. Would they try to take the Middle East? Most of Mexico and Canada? Any of Southeast Asia?

Not sure about this, but I imagine some kind of invasion of our neighbors would likely have more to do with our response to some sort of economic collapse. US GDP is so closely tied to these countries that for example a coup or communist party winning elections in Mexico etc would have severe consequences for our own economy.

Shadow555 said:
What are some of the most common races and ethnicities in France besides French, Europeans and whites? In the future what races and ethnicities are likely to increase more in France?

There is a law in France that prevents any census which makes distinction by race or religious beliefs, so precise demographics might be difficult to determine. The larger cities in France are similar to any other large city with many people from all over the world. From personal experience living in Paris, Beaune and Cannes I met many French citizens who had parents or grandparents from former colonies like Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Cameroon, many immigrants also from other EU countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain, UK. Some few I met from more distant origins like China, US, South America, Korea etc

Shadow555 · Jul 18, 2019

lizmonster said:
And no, there's nothing about your character's ethnicity that means he must be Muslim. Not sure where you're getting that. You don't have to have religion involved in your story at all, but given the scope and timeframe you're talking about, that's probably unrealistic. Again: reading is your friend here.

What if I just said that he was from a North African parent like an Egyptian, Moroccan or Tunisian dad and a West African parent like a Mande mom and both his parents were killed or something but before they died they left him with a French couple or a French couple found him who are non religious so he was brought up non religiously? Especially if his foster French parents were also killed or maybe kidnapped while he was a child and now as a child he is taken in to some governed facility as an orphan trained or something. Sure his race and heritage will always be the same, his biological parents could of been Sunni or Shia Muslims but he was already adopted or taken in by others so religion will no longer matter right?

Bing Z said:
So we'll have past the most tense scenario scholars are currently worrying--the Thucydides's Trap. The further into the future, the more freedom and leeway you have to build our world.

From around 2026 (PwC) to 2035 (China's estimate), China will become the largest economy in the world. Also from PwC's estimate, by 2050, the US will be competing with India for the #2 spot. By 2080-2170, the technological levels in these countries (and many others) will be pretty similar... if the world gets to see it.

For a reference, the UN's world population estimate for 2050 comprises of 20% from the 'Western' countries, 26% Africans, and 54% Asians (in Asia, not counting the immigrants & their offspring in the US which will hit 8% of US population or so by then). OTOH, the world GDP projection for 2050 will be 39% for the 'Western' countries, 52% for Asian countries, and 9% for the African countries. You can sense where the conflicts & tension will come from.

Throughout human history, people went to war for resources. In the very past, people invaded mostly for human resources... killed the men, enslaved the women & children. That doesn't work anymore. Human assets, even slaves, are damn expensive to maintain. Robots are way cheaper. So the reasons to go to war would probably be political ideals and for other resources (or maybe trade wars evolve into real war?).

As for where to invade, two rationales come up:

a) the easy targets. say Russia is to invade some country for the heck of it. It makes little sense to invade France or Germany where they have a decent defense. Chances are they would target the Baltic states (can probably finish one in a day). Same token, if China wants to invade someone for fun, it makes little sense to go for India. Maybe they would target Nepal? (But Nepalese make some of the world's best military fighters... the entailing guerilla warfare would be nasty.)

b) back to why invade--> resources... specifically, untapped resources... ie, the unclaimed oceans. That means the war will be a privilege for very powerful countries with very powerful navies (invent these countries). The good news is that these wars will cost very little civilian casualties.

I think something like this will work for me! I can at least try it out.

Helix said:
Some thoughts:

What about NATO? Does it still exist in this imagined world? Is it going to let Russia rearrange borders?

If China invaded Nepal (for whatever reason), India would have something to say about it.

I'm not so sure yet, but I did want to include NATO into the future, maybe they merged in with Russia as Russia had taken over or decided between Russia and China? Probably a bad idea, but I do want NATO to exist but maybe in a different name.

Snitchcat · Jul 18, 2019

This is starting to sound like a brainstorming thread, not a research one.

If you're looking to brainstorm, I suggest the Brainstorming Sandbox forum. Alternatively, you could ask a mod to move this thread there.

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Re, China in the future.

Again, I strongly recommend reading/researching as you write.

And if you're involving the military and the Central Government, then look up then related information.

Shadow555 · Jul 18, 2019

My apologies, didn't mean to go off topic there.

Snitchcat said:
Re, China in the future.

Again, I strongly recommend reading/researching as you write.

And if you're involving the military and the Central Government, then look up then related information.

I can try with the library. Internet should also help me if I dig deep enough I would think. I know someone who is Chinese but they themselves don't even know enough about China when I asked so looks like I'm on my on with this one.

Helix · Jul 18, 2019

Shadow555, have you looked up any of these countries and topics on Wikipedia? Yes, it's very basic, but I think it might be a good place for you to start. You'll probably get more usable ideas that way than by this scattergun approach.

Question about future demographics of ethnicities and invasions in countries

Introversion

Pie aren't squared, pie are round!

PostHuman

Shadow555

Snitchcat

Dragon-kitty.

Shadow555

Helix

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