The numbers game

Vatnip · Feb 8, 2019

I cant say I have had many rejections yet for my first book (or, perhaps, attempt at a book). I sent out ~15 queries, got a few rejections back, never heard from others. One agency told me that they get about 300 queries a week while another stated 600 a week. That was last summer.

Those numbers, basically, destroyed my confidence in getting a book picked up. Not just my book, but any book, and by anyone. It did a real number (pun intended) on my confidence. Long story short, I just packed it all in before I barely started.

Now, with a bit more free time and it being the start of the year and all that, I'm ready to delve into it more seriously (such as joining the forum here!)

I still think those numbers are staggering, and my only way of reconciling that problem is to simply...ignore it. It will fester and fester at the back of my mind, every time I sit down to write, and it may yet overcome me.

Does anyone have some insight to share on this kind of thing? Is it just a case of dealing with it? Is there some philosophical mantra I should have ? Thanks for any replies

pingle · Feb 8, 2019

I've attempted writing a few times over the last decade, but it wasn't until last year that I really went for it and finished the book and looked up the agents and the figured out the score, and yes, like you I was massively disheartened at how competitive the industry is, how huge the submissions numbers were. I'm sort of glad I'd previously had my head in the sand because yeah, maybe I wouldn't have dedicated so much time to something that I knew was so so hard to break into. But once you're into writing, it's hard to imagine being able to turn away from it, or at least that's how I feel, I just love it, think about it all the time, read constantly and take mental notes all the way through. I know the task ahead is huge, but I can't seem to stop myself from trying

Maggie Maxwell · Feb 8, 2019

Perhaps this might help some, particularly #3: Slushkiller. It details WHY most of those 3-600 will be rejected. General consensus is, if you can write legibly in your language, actually wrote a book and not just something resembling a book, and submitted to the right agent, then you're in the top 5% of the slush pile. Of the 3-600 a week, only ~15-30 are competitive. So yes, the market's tough, but not as tough as the base numbers make it seem.

Vatnip · Feb 8, 2019

pingle said:
I've attempted writing a few times over the last decade, but it wasn't until last year that I really went for it and finished the book and looked up the agents and the figured out the score, and yes, like you I was massively disheartened at how competitive the industry is, how huge the submissions numbers were. I'm sort of glad I'd previously had my head in the sand because yeah, maybe I wouldn't have dedicated so much time to something that I knew was so so hard to break into. But once you're into writing, it's hard to imagine being able to turn away from it, or at least that's how I feel, I just love it, think about it all the time, read constantly and take mental notes all the way through. I know the task ahead is huge, but I can't seem to stop myself from trying

I completely agree with the "head in sand" thing! Im really glad I just forged ahead and got the book written in the first place, because if I had spent any amount of time researching the odds...probably would have stopped. And yeah, writing is quite addictive, once you've started it is difficult to completely stop, its fun

Vatnip · Feb 8, 2019

Maggie Maxwell said:
Perhaps this might help some, particularly #3: Slushkiller. It details WHY most of those 3-600 will be rejected. General consensus is, if you can write legibly in your language, actually wrote a book and not just something resembling a book, and submitted to the right agent, then you're in the top 5% of the slush pile. Of the 3-600 a week, only ~15-30 are competitive. So yes, the market's tough, but not as tough as the base numbers make it seem.

You know what, that does make it seem much better

Something I'll try to keep in mind. Of course theres still the worry of being the baby thrown out with the bathwater, but not much you can do about that (or not realising you are the bathwater!) Thanks

Treehouseman · Feb 11, 2019

Gosh yes, with email so easy, imagine how many not-quite-literate people are sending their stuff!

I found as I got better with queries and pages the rate of replies went up.

HOWEVER: Non-response is about 50% across the board, so don't feel discouraged. Sometimes agencies don't actually "close" but just stop reading queries.

ByTXP · Feb 11, 2019

That Slushkiller post is great and helped boost my confidence when I was in the query trenches. If you've written a complete, unpublished book and followed the submissions rules you're already doing well. And definitely don't read too much into the agents who don't respond at all. I sent out ~80 queries over the course of a year before I got my current agent, and from those I had about a dozen requests for fulls and partials, two offers, and about 30 non-responses. One agent took a full eight months to send a rejection, and I've heard of people waiting a lot longer than that. :Shrug:

Kats · Feb 12, 2019

15 rejections is nothing - don't lose hope over that! Try to think of the number of submissions agents get as an indication you need to submit widely (carefully, but widely!) and don't get too attached to any one response, or take rejections personally. Other than that, get it out there and talk to other writers who understand how difficult and demoralizing the whole process can be!

brightspark · Feb 18, 2019

Maggie Maxwell said:
Perhaps this might help some, particularly #3: Slushkiller. It details WHY most of those 3-600 will be rejected. General consensus is, if you can write legibly in your language, actually wrote a book and not just something resembling a book, and submitted to the right agent, then you're in the top 5% of the slush pile. Of the 3-600 a week, only ~15-30 are competitive. So yes, the market's tough, but not as tough as the base numbers make it seem.

This is what I always try to remember. That link was a great read.

Earthling · Feb 20, 2019

It's not as much of a numbers game as you think.

People who can't write publishable material have 0% chance of being offered rep. This, believe it or not (and anybody who's seen slush believes it) is at least 80% of people querying. Usually reported as closer to 90%.

People who can write publishable material have an extremely high chance of being offered rep and eventually published. Here's where it does become a bit of a numbers game in a different way: luck definitely plays a part - the 'right place and the right time' kind - so the more excellent manuscripts you write and submit, the higher your chances get. Most people who are published didn't get rep or publication for their first manuscript. Persistence pays off.

Harlequin · Feb 21, 2019

Everything earthiling said.

Exceptions do apply and people do get lucky or unlucky. But for the guy who sends in an incoherent, green-crayon query scribbled by hand on tinfoil, it ain't a numbers game if you know what I mean. He doesn't have a "1/1000" chance, he has a 0% chance lol.

Stack the odds in your favour, keep trying, and hope for the best. Aim for that 10% request rate. If no requests at all, then don't fear revision and definitely revisit opening pages plus query.

The numbers game

Vatnip

pingle

Maggie Maxwell

Making Einstein cry since 1994

Vatnip

Vatnip

Treehouseman

ByTXP

Strange Visitor

Kats

brightspark

Earthling

I come in peace

Harlequin

Eat books, not brains!