The "Orange Curtain" falls

Roxxsmom

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This story might actually fall under the "and hope" part of this forum's heading--at least for those of us who aren't fans of our current POTUS and the policies he, and most congressional Republicans champion. Every single house district, six in total, within Orange County, CA went "blue" this time, flipping four of the most stubbornly "red" districts in CA. My mom, who lives in one of those districts is ecstatic, because she has hated her rep for years, but her politics are not typical of the area.

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/20/669330214/democrats-demolish-the-orange-curtain-in-orange-county

It has been of interest to me, because I grew up in Newpor Beach, CA, as a member of one of the few Democratic families that lived there (my dad was a professor at UC Irvine, and the house he purchased for 30k in 1970 was in what was then a relatively modest, "white working class" area of Newport Beach, but it gradually "gentrified" over the years). The first time I voted in a primary there, the June before I went off to College in Northern California, I remember how eyebrows went up when I said I needed a Democratic ballot.

Why and how the Republicans have, at least for now, fallen from grace in "red" Orange County, is an interesting puzzle. There were rumblings of this in 2016, when more Orange County folks voted for Clinton than Trump. I was hoping that Trump's unpopularity in such a conservative bastion (he polled poorly there before the election) was a sign that he'd go down everywhere red, but alas, it turned out to be in vain.

So the cautionary note is that this formerly red stronghold in a very blue state is not typical of Republican strongholds everywhere, nor of formerly blue states like Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin that are becoming redder. People in Orange County tend to be well educated and quite wealthy, and many are older and retired (because young families can't afford to move into many of its neighborhoods unless they get some help from their own parents). There's no way I could afford to live there, given my profession, unless I'd moved in with my mom or commuted great distances to work, as my brother (a doctor) does.

The Republicans I grew up with adored Reagan, but it was less for his rhetoric about abortion, women's rights, the environment, and creationism and more because he promised tax cuts for the rich and his stance on social issues reinforced a social order that had been beneficial to them historically. At least that was my take on it as a teen who had more interest than most teens in politics.

There are still a lot of very rich, white people in Orange County for whom voting their pocketbook would have meant voting for Trump in 2016 and for the GOP representatives in 2018.

Does this outcome mean we're finally seeing the beginning of the end of this unholy alliance between the fiscally conservative but socially more moderate branch of the GOP and the socially conservative, anti immigrant, anti environmental, anti science branch that should be fiscally liberal and pro labor but somehow isn't? Note that these "new" Democrats aren't in the Sanders camp by any means (are pretty moderate, even somewhat conservative, fiscally). Still, it's interesting that relatively wealthy people of a fiscally self-interested bent decided not to vote for incumbent Republicans when the economy is doing well (by wealthy standards, at least) and their own taxes have been lowered.
 
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SWest

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Yeah, congrats on this.

It seemed like a nail-biter because, Devin Nunes. But, yes, hopefully some common-sense-winning-the-day here.

With respect to wealthy folks finding this economy suitable? I wonder what effect October's market blow out had in November...
 

Roxxsmom

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I don't live there anymore. I couldn't afford to, even if I wanted to. I went to Northern CA for college and never moved back. I'm in the Sacramento area now, in a district that used to be very narrowly "blue" but is now increasingly so.

Whenever people tell me I was lucky to grow up in such a beautiful place, I can't help but remember how crowded it was (even back then), and how snobby, and how it lacked open space or natural areas, its lack of cultural and racial diversity (this has improved some, though Newport is still very white), how hard it was to go anywhere or do anything fun without a car, and how out of place I always felt socially and politically.

I do feel a certain grim satisfaction seeing this shift, the way the GOP in its current form has alienated some of its staunchest (and wealthiest) supporters. I don't think we can assume this shift is permanent or deep, but it's interesting that the GOP in CA, at least, admits it is in tatters and unsure of their path forward when their party is so tied to Trump. I don't know if this is a thing in places like Texas, though, where nearly the whole state is red and gerrymandered, and Trump seems to still be popular.
 
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Roxxsmom

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Some of the biggest idiots I know are also getting fed up. --s6

I'm curious what they are fed up about (I'm assuming the idiots you refer to are erstwhile Trump supporters). He's doing exactly what he said he would do during his campaign, from trying to repeal the ACA to the tariffs to the appointment of very conservative judges, to changing the tax structure to further favor the rich, to sticking it to immigrants, to trying to strip rights from everyone who isn't a white, straight, rich dude. And the economy is currently strong and unemployment is down (I don't think #45 has anything to do with this, nor do I think it's permanent, but his supporters are crowing about it).

Not that I'm complaining at all, but I can't help wondering how so many conservatives are becoming disenchanted with him and their party.
 
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shakeysix

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people out here are funny, kind of isolated and opinionated but not well informed. they mainly vote on gut issues like guns, abortion, cutting welfare for the undeserving poor but they are also honest, hard working and basically decent. they will respect anyone who works hard, pays his/her bills and helps out in an emergency. they dislike boasting and they despise whining. lately I think it has occurred to many once trumpers that he is not the person they would want to share a booth with, at the local sevenleven. --s6
 

Roxxsmom

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lately I think it has occurred to many once trumpers that he is not the person they would want to share a booth with, at the local sevenleven. --s6

No arguments there either, though I got the impression some people voted for him because he was an asshole.

I actually had a weird moment today; I agreed with him about something. It was his anger at GM for planning to shut down several US plants and make electric cars in China. He said something like, "This is how you pay us back for bailing you out?"

It is a pretty disgusting thing for GM to do. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

The difference, though, is I don't support our shift to unbridled capitalism where the only obligation a corporation has is to its shareholders instead of its country, its workers, or even its customers. And he's the one who has changed regulations so these companies will be getting fewer subsidies for making fuel-efficient cars.
 

Roxxsmom

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I caught this on my drive home tonight. The CA GOP chairman is warning the national GOP that California is the "canary in the coal mine" for his party. CA is one of five "minority majority" states that represent the shifting future demographics of our country.

“Don’t think California’s just a bunch of crazy whackos,” he said in an interview with Capital Public Radio. “We’re the leading edge of demographic change. And that demographic change is coming to communities in your state as well.”

http://www.capradio.org/articles/20...republicans-were-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/

Of course, this would explain why the national GOP is so in favor of restricting immigrants and voter access. So, will their strategy be successful for a while longer, at least, or are they trying to bail out a sinking ship with a very small bucket?
 

frimble3

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people out here are funny, kind of isolated and opinionated but not well informed. they mainly vote on gut issues like guns, abortion, cutting welfare for the undeserving poor but they are also honest, hard working and basically decent. they will respect anyone who works hard, pays his/her bills and helps out in an emergency. they dislike boasting and they despise whining. lately I think it has occurred to many once trumpers that he is not the person they would want to share a booth with, at the local sevenleven. --s6

So the combination of boasting and whining must be going down well.
And, maybe they're wondering why veteran's benefits are being cut, and it's harder for the grandfolks to get by.
Or why every counter in town has a jar, collecting money so that some kid can get medical treatment?

Maybe some of them are okay with Trump, because they can sense that he's only one boastful, whiny part of the whole problem.