What is the current state of the YA market?

Roly said:

I'm curious about it because I've seen a few conversations about it on twitter and wanted to know what you guys thought.

Some are saying that even established authors are struggling to get new deals and sales have stagnated. What's more, there hasn't been a big hit in a long time that would generate more sales in both the YA or MG markets (ala Twilight or Percy Jackson).

What do you guys think is going on? Do you think social media might have something to do with it? There's so many options now available that there are less chances for the kind of breakouts that invigorated the industry in the past?

I'm also curious because this seems to be happening right at the same moment when the industry seems more interested than ever looking for diversity to publish. This would be a heck of a time for the market to stagnate.

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There hasn't been a hit in a long time? Like.. The Hate U Give? The endless spate of John Green's maudlin stuff? Rainbow Rowell's?

What's hotter than MG atm?

Why would social media reduce the chance for breakout authors?

The Hate U Give sold 800k+ in only a year, and Children of Blood and Bone seems on track to do the same. With the movie adaptations coming out, that will only increase sales. YA and MG are doing fine, and social media is helping with gathering fanbases and driving sales. True, in recent years there have been more breakouts on the adult side of the industry, but that might've been a result of YA fatigue after HG, Twilight, Harry Potter, Maze Runner, John Green, etc. It's now coming back in the form of diverse works. I think the industry's doing fine.

According to my agent, it IS tough out there for YA. Not gonna speculate why because my crystal ball is at the shop for a tune-up, but yeah, it's tough.

Marissa D said:

...it IS tough out there for YA. ...

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Always has been. And the more popular YA gets the more authors write it, increasing competition and toughness for new writers and old.

Publishers Weekly recently put out a report that supports your feeling. Here's the link.

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw...and-authors-take-the-pulse-of-today-s-ya.html

It sounds like a slow-down from a glut of a few years ago. YA is hardly dying however, just a tad sluggish. Something like 13,000 YA titles came out last year. And the variety of genres and subgenres was great. Plenty of room to find your niche.

Recent trends include more diversity of characters and their settings, graphic novels, and (to a lesser extent) superheroes. Fantasy is a constant. Down trends are post-apocalyptic and sexy supernaturals - which might just open up those areas for growth in the next few years, so don't get discouraged if your latest WIP is in one of those areas.

I've heard that fantasy (or at least second-world fantasy) is a pretty tough sell right now but that contemporary fantasy might be coming back. I'm glad to see so many diverse books coming out, but I hate that people refer to diversity as a "trend." Diversity should be a staple, not something that's "in today, out tomorrow."

cornflake said:

There hasn't been a hit in a long time? Like.. The Hate U Give? The endless spate of John Green's maudlin stuff? Rainbow Rowell's?

What's hotter than MG atm?

Why would social media reduce the chance for breakout authors?

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While all those books are successes in the writing world, I wouldn't consider any of them global phenomenon like the OP is suggesting. I live on a college campus of over 40,000 teens (a very diverse one, too) and I haven't heard a single person talk about any of those books since their release. I've even asked friends if they're excited about some of those books, if they're going to see the THUG movie coming out soon because I sure am, etc. and not one had a clue what I was talking about. Everyone knows Harry Potter, Hunger Games, etc. no matter who they are. Those are MASSIVE hits.

And I don't think he means social media reduces the chance for breakout authors, but rather breakout books. Now that anyone can promote their book more easily and there are an array of new ways to promote a book, I can see the viewpoint that it's harder for a book to rise above all the others. I don't think it's a bad thing, either.

My gut reaction is that the lack of a global blockbuster is due to over-saturation and a natural lull in the market. Something else to keep in mind is that the blockbusters are all fantasy/sci-fi/dystopian, and it seems there is a shift in interest toward realism, like The Hate U Give. And realistic stories don't create enormous buzz like fantasy series (HP, Percy Jackson, Hunger Games, Twilight). The interest in realism may be a reflection of the rawness of today's political and social environment.

Loverofwords said:

While all those books are successes in the writing world, I wouldn't consider any of them global phenomenon like the OP is suggesting. I live on a college campus of over 40,000 teens (a very diverse one, too) and I haven't heard a single person talk about any of those books since their release. I've even asked friends if they're excited about some of those books, if they're going to see the THUG movie coming out soon because I sure am, etc. and not one had a clue what I was talking about. Everyone knows Harry Potter, Hunger Games, etc. no matter who they are. Those are MASSIVE hits.

And I don't think he means social media reduces the chance for breakout authors, but rather breakout books. Now that anyone can promote their book more easily and there are an array of new ways to promote a book, I can see the viewpoint that it's harder for a book to rise above all the others. I don't think it's a bad thing, either.

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College students are by their nature not YA's target audience. That's not to say plenty of adults don't read YA; obviously they do, but I don't know I'd consider an adult population's interest in a YA book to be indicative of its reach into its target market.

I don’t know that huge global bestsellers like HP are necessarily the benchmark of a category’s health. YA was around for decades before those books and seems unlikely to disappear. However, most of the agents and editors quoted in that article do say market saturation has made it harder to sell individual projects, and that’s my anecdotal impression, too. Every time I hear “YA thrillers aren’t selling” (which, yes, someone says in that article; granted, that was 2017 and I’m seeing more thrillers this year), I think seriously about switching to adult, though I really like writing YA.

Still heaps of million dollar deals splashed around. Here's the latest:

https://ew.com/books/2018/09/13/there-will-come-a-darkness-announcement/

Obviously that's none of us lol

I'm sure I read in a Bologna report that some publishers were now on the lookout for thrillers in a way they weren't in 2017 - I wish I could remember where! As a writer of YA thrillers I found it heartening.

Who knows with the current state of the YA market, really. The consensus seems to be that publishers overbought, and are now being more conservative in what they go for, but this situation won't last forever. And I'd say that very few authors' careers are ever really totally stable. Even moderately successful YA authors are only as good as their last book, and could quite easily have a MS turned down by a publisher.

RaggyCat said:

I'm sure I read in a Bologna report that some publishers were now on the lookout for thrillers in a way they weren't in 2017 - I wish I could remember where! As a writer of YA thrillers I found it heartening.

Who knows with the current state of the YA market, really. The consensus seems to be that publishers overbought, and are now being more conservative in what they go for, but this situation won't last forever. And I'd say that very few authors' careers are ever really totally stable. Even moderately successful YA authors are only as good as their last book, and could quite easily have a MS turned down by a publisher.

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I have to completely agree here. Speaking from my own experience as a YA fiction writer, it's extremely difficult to maintain a writing career in the YA market. You really need to know a lot of what's out there, what sells, and what doesn't. Not that you should copy it or anything, but to be savvy and create your own idea that would fit. Each and every publisher is looking for a certain type of book to fit with their catalog. So basically, you have to stand out from the slush pile, but fit in to their program. It makes it extremely hard to continue.

As for how well the YA market is doing, it changes all the time so it's best to stay abreast with it, regardless of what happens, especially if you're trying to make it into that type of market.

I recently attended a Writer's Digest conference about MG and YA literature. There were 7 agents who each had a turn to discuss various aspect of these genres. Every one of them when asked this exact question said the reason why people feel YA is sluggish at best now is that many are waiting for the next Hunger Games or the next Harry Potter. But there are books that do exceptionally well that don't meet those expectations. Just because a book didn't rake in 1 million + in the first week doesn't mean it wasn't a hit.

The one thing many of them did say was they were tired of books that had a protagonist with dead parents, thus the plot deals with that MC's coping with or defying the antagonist of the story due to that in some respect.

It was eye opening for sure and made sense!

I'm not surprised that agents are fed up of dead parents. I'm fairly certain that's a trope which will remain, though - it feels like something that's hardwired into YA and indeed MG literature. I've also seen readers of YA and bloggers (I suspect the adult ones, though) saying they'd love more realistic and well-explored parent figures in YA.

Undercover said:

I have to completely agree here. Speaking from my own experience as a YA fiction writer, it's extremely difficult to maintain a writing career in the YA market. You really need to know a lot of what's out there, what sells, and what doesn't. Not that you should copy it or anything, but to be savvy and create your own idea that would fit. Each and every publisher is looking for a certain type of book to fit with their catalog. So basically, you have to stand out from the slush pile, but fit in to their program. It makes it extremely hard to continue.

As for how well the YA market is doing, it changes all the time so it's best to stay abreast with it, regardless of what happens, especially if you're trying to make it into that type of market.

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This is where a good agent really comes into play - a good agent should be able to advise clients based on their knowledge of the market as to where a gap might be, or if editors are interested in finding something the agent thinks a particular client would be well-placed to write. Ages ago my former agent said she thought it might be a good idea for me to try building a mystery series with a girl detective - not something I was keen on at the time, but something I have since seen being written. I wish I'd paid more attention to her! An agent can also advise if a particular book or idea is a bad idea for a client. Their knowledge is also particularly good as they'll know what's in the pipeline at many publishers and what they're succeeding in selling, so have knowledge beyond what a writer Googling an accrue.
This doesn't help those of us who are not lucky enough to have agents, of course!

I haven't read this, but it popped into my head: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/65053.One_of_Those_Hideous_Books_Where_the_Mother_Dies

The death of a parent is easy fodder for empathy, tension, and plot. I've seen it done and have done it myself. It can be a conscious effort not to do it, actually! As a reader, I prefer when the parents are divorced or in prison or working a lot or out of the picture in some other way. Of course, the idea is that the parent can't be too major of a presence because the protag needs to figure things out themselves, but death isn't necessary -- it's just the easiest way.

My current WIP features a dead parent, and though I considered changing that, the manner of death (OD) is a big part of the theme. I think whatever the reason for the protag's parent being out of the picture, whether it's death or something else, should be unique and add to the story beyond just tugging at the reader's heartstrings.

In my two YA novels, I needed the parents dead (both in a car accident, in one of them; the mother in a car accident, the sailor father later, during the plot, as a plot twist) because the plot needed the teenager to live with her aunt and uncle, in another town (or country). In my historical novels, having the parents dead was no problem, since several hundreds years ago, people died untimely in most cases...

Both my MG and YA have this element. In my MG, the mother dies of cancer during the story. It's the point of the novel. Many books show what comes after, but fewer show it happening.

In my YA, the father's death propels the plot. It happened so long ago, that it's not at the forefront for him but his actions would be different without it. (This is much less complete and may change.)

In both, the other parent and other adults are front and center as support but the main character still has to figure things out on his own.

My current WIP also has a dead mother. If she weren't dead the whole series would collapse. The dead mother is the true inciting incident that starts the falling dominos.

I've done dead/absent parent/s before, too. Sometimes I do it because factoring two parents into the plot is hard - there are enough characters already and having to deal with both parents' reactions to events is just too much. I also prefer to write in one well-developed parent than have two who barely feature. I always prefer to write books with as few characters as possible so they all get breathing space.

RaggyCat said:

I always prefer to write books with as few characters as possible so they all get breathing space.

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This is such good advice and something I'm definitely still learning. But in revising to feedback I've seen how reducing characters tightens everything up and actually increases emotion and tension.

Isobel said:

This is such good advice and something I'm definitely still learning. But in revising to feedback I've seen how reducing characters tightens everything up and actually increases emotion and tension.

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Totally! Just for fun I looked at all the novels I've written (pubbed and unpubbed) and all really have only 3-4 significant, well-developed characters who go on a journey throughout. There are other minor characters, of course, many of whom have small journeys, but the majority of the action centres around 3-4. There's just not the space for more.

My agent also said that YA is a very tough sell right now. I think it's been growing increasingly tough over the past several years. Yes, there are still big deals happening, but I also feel like whenever I look at the PW Rights Report, the majority of deals are for picture books and MG, with just a few YA. Of course not all deals are reported, but still. It does feel like a change.

As a YA writer this is something i've been worried about (i'm working on my first one currently). My novel has two main characters, one of which lives in an orphanage. But i needed the parents to be out of the picture to show the state of the dystopian land I've created! Still... you cant help but worry its too common in regards to absent parents in YA. I've also been looking into New Adult as this seems like an interesting genre that is not too well known.

Geez, I've got a dead father on the first page of my WIP (who turns up alive at the end). No wonder my query isn't getting any traction. It's got time travel, too. Where does time travel fit in the continuum of what's selling and what isn't?