Two interesting stories today that are going to have a bearing on how this tournament plays out (and it's getting close now! Always my favourite years: Winter Olympics + World Cup).
First is
this piece out of ESPN, that the combined North American bid for 2026 could be in doubt because of both FIFA geopolitics and Trump geopolitics (hard to pick which I like less there, to be honest). The report is heavy on unnamed confederational sources, so I'd take the actual "doubts" that headline it with a massive grain of salt. To an extent, this bid has always had doubts, for the same geopolitical reasons every US bid has doubts--a problem exacerbated within FIFA by the US leading the corruption investigation that took out a lot of high-up people. Until federations start going on record with voting intentions, this kind of speculation is fairly meaningless.
What stood out to me is this:
The ballots will be cast just days before the opening match of the 2018 World Cup between Russia and Saudi Arabia in Moscow -- with the 2026 hosts expected to be announced on June 13.
This seems awfully dicey on FIFA's part. The whole appeal of the US-led bid was that it was a nice, clean, easy-to-accept bid after the fiasco of Russia and Qatar. So announcing what could be a close hosting decision (they're always close) right as Russia 2018 gets underway... them's some
very strange optics. Some group of people is going to be very angry. Which, coming from FIFA, maybe isn't surprising....
Second story is
this, from the Guardian, on an absolute mess involving VAR (video assistant referees, which will be in use in Russia) in the FA Cup.
UEFA also announced this week that they won't use VAR in the Champion's League next year. Increasingly, leagues, particularly in Europe, seem to hate it. The Tottenham mess is hardly even the worst VAR howler I've seen--they have been legion in Australia, Germany, Italy, and Portugal. The English FA, or at least the English press, which may as well be the same thing, is getting very frothy about it. Most of the problems so far are issues of consistency and the press is mostly just doing what it does. It wouldn't be such a problem if FIFA had actually used the system in advance of the World Cup, but it largely hasn't.
VAR was used at last summer's U-20s, where it went relatively smoothly; at last summer's Confederations Cup, where it didn't; and at the 2017 Club World Cup, where I didn't hear anything one way or the other because there are only about six matches. That's a massively low amount of prep for any major tournament use of anything, much less a system that is technologically fiddly (having used the RefTalk systems, they have an amazing tendency to either fail or fall out at the worst time), much less at a tournament that brings together players and referees from vastly different cultures with vastly different levels of experience.
The foul that ruled out Tottenham's goal today isn't and shouldn't be a foul. But, by the letter of the law, it
can be. So you take, say, a Spanish or Mexican referee, who regularly works in a league that's typically more strict. You add an English or Nigerian VAR, who regularly works in a very physical league. Honduras are playing Uruguay . How does that call play out, in the pressure cooker of the World Cup? The referees are under massive pressure to get "match critical" calls correct--penalties, red cards, offside leading to goals. They basically compete for knock-out round games, the Final, and for standing domestically, at future tournaments, and post-retirement. The pressure to call the by-the-book foul, or penalty, or red card, is immense. Adding a second set of eyes actually
reduces the likelihood of a referee making a "common sense" managerial decision, because more weight is placed on the process rather than individual management decisions.
I give it about 2-3 matches before a VAR controversy erupts (
here's a good example of what that looks like--note, some NSFW langauge from angry coach). Given FIFA have, bizarrely, decided to operate the system remotely from Moscow rather than in-stadium like usual, I'd even bet we'll get a nice politically-motivated smear job early on: a "FIFA's secret VAR room made sure [insert "smaller" nation here] didn't win!" This should land
just as the brouhaha from whatever comes of the hosting decision is blowing over.
Plus ça, plus c'est la même chose, FIFA.