Gambling or Probability Terminology

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I have a book that's using the idea of fighting the odds and being the underdog as a sort of theme.

What I need is a term from either gambling or probability studies (terms from both would be excellent) that refers to the underdog who wins. Like the odds said this would almost certainly happen, but it didn't. So in horse racing, it would be an upset. Is there a name for the horse who does the upsetting? "Underdog" only seems to apply before the victory, right?

I'm looking for something that means, like, "odds-beater" or "upsetter" or something like that... and, again, it would be great if there was a gambling term AND a more mathematical term for the same idea...

Anything?
 

robjvargas

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Gambling sites tend to run heavy with ads. If you don't mind that, this site has a decent lingo dictionary:

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-lingo.htm

Not comprehensive, but decent.

The lingo varies, though, depending on the source of the betting. Sports betting, card games, dice, and so on. The site above is sports betting.
 

Saribelle

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I have a book that's using the idea of fighting the odds and being the underdog as a sort of theme.

What I need is a term from either gambling or probability studies (terms from both would be excellent) that refers to the underdog who wins. Like the odds said this would almost certainly happen, but it didn't. So in horse racing, it would be an upset. Is there a name for the horse who does the upsetting? "Underdog" only seems to apply before the victory, right?

I'm looking for something that means, like, "odds-beater" or "upsetter" or something like that... and, again, it would be great if there was a gambling term AND a more mathematical term for the same idea...

Anything?

The first thing I thought of when I read this was the "dark horse."
 

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Damn... "dark horse" might work, but I already used that for a previous book title! Stupid me!

But, yeah, that idea. But does "dark horse" suggest that the horse has already won, or is it more of a pre-race term? Kind of like "underdog"?
 

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Gambling sites tend to run heavy with ads. If you don't mind that, this site has a decent lingo dictionary:

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-lingo.htm

Not comprehensive, but decent.

The lingo varies, though, depending on the source of the betting. Sports betting, card games, dice, and so on. The site above is sports betting.

I didn't see anything there that matches what I'm looking for.

Maybe gamblers don't really care about the individual involved, once the contest has been resolved...
 

Torgo

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I didn't see anything there that matches what I'm looking for.

Maybe gamblers don't really care about the individual involved, once the contest has been resolved...

Hmm, I am not sure I've heard a term for a dark horse who wins... You might try asking over at Quora?
 

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The term for a horse with high odds winning would be 'longshot'



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Does that imply that the horse won, though? To me it applies just as much before the race as after.

Damn, I did not know about Quora - there goes a few hours of my time, as I must, of course, now return and look at all the random knowledge. We should put a "Quora" warning like we do for "TV Tropes" (WARNING!)

But I'm with you in wondering whether "longshot" requires that the horse won. It always, in my mind, is used in the past tense. "He was a longshot, but he made it".

I wonder if part of my problem is that there's a sort of mathematical glitch going on... prior to the event, the odds are against him, but after the events, the odds are 100% that he won. So maybe it doesn't really make sense to still talk about the original odds, once the event is over? I'm confusing myself, now.
 

Torgo

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Damn, I did not know about Quora - there goes a few hours of my time, as I must, of course, now return and look at all the random knowledge. We should put a "Quora" warning like we do for "TV Tropes" (WARNING!)

It is pretty cool. You may wish to ask Jonathon Green - he's on Quora and there's nobody in the world who knows more about slang and jargon.
 

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Outsider is another term for a winner who had little chance of success.
 

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Longshot is used both before and after the event. For example:

I like the horse's name, and place a bet on him, but the longshot doesn't have a chance in hell of winning.

Compared to:

I still can't figure out how that longshot came in first.

Outsider, which is more a term from the other side of the pond, can also be used both before and after the event. Both can also be used to describe the horse after the event, whether the horse won or lost. For example:

The outsider was expected to come in last, and he did.

Longshot is used a lot at horse and dog tracks, somewhat in sports, and not much in games of chance. Horse bettors are not big numbers guys, and aren't too much into mathematically terms.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe
 

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An outlier, I supposed.

And remember, odds and probability are not the same thing. Odds are a ratio of probabilities.
 

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So he "beat the odds" or "beat long odds." That's the only term I know for winning a longshot.
 
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The thing to remember in horse racing is that the odds are set by the various bets. If there are a hundred bettors in a paramutuel system, and 99 bet on one horse and one bets on the other, then that horse has a 99-1 odds against winning. If the house takes a cut, then the odds could be 98-1 or lower, depending on the size of the cut. There is no true probability in horse racing, since there is no guarantee that the best horse wins.

A dark horse is generally a horse nobody knows much about, hence, they receive few bets, and thus receive long odds. Contrast that with a longshot, a horse that is not competitive with the field, who also receives long odds at the betting window.

In determinate games (think poker, craps, roulette), every outcome can be calculated on the basis of probability. There, true odds can be calculated. The longer the odds, the greater the payout (minus house edge). Thus, something like betting on 00 in roulette earns 35 to 1, even though the true odds are 37-1. Such bets are usually referred to as longshots, both before and after the fact.

Hope this helps.
 

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A dark horse is generally a horse nobody knows much about, hence, they receive few bets, and thus receive long odds. Contrast that with a longshot, a horse that is not competitive with the field, who also receives long odds at the betting window.

Wanted to refine "dark horse" a bit.

Dark horse is indeed a horse few know about. But dark horses also have winning potential among those with inside knowledge. These horses would be good bets and may get middle to long odds. They're not particularly popular with the public and tend to get ignored.

Completely agree with your definition of long-shot.
 

jclarkdawe

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Zombie thread alert!!!

Originally posted in 2012 and the original poster is now banned.

Jim Clark-Dawe
 
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