"Getting Published is not a Crap Shoot"

Steam&Ink

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Further to (several) AW discussions about the part that luck plays in getting published, here is the Victoria Strauss take on it (links to Writer Beware blog). It may be saying what most experienced writers already know, but it's nice to see it argued in a structured and reasonable way, IMO. Not that AW discussions aren't structured and reasonable.... ;)

Apologies if this has already been linked from AW.
 

Jamesaritchie

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Solid truth. Getting published should never be a crapshoot. Unfortunately, it's also true that for many new writers, getting published is a crapshoot because of how they approach the business of writing, and in particular, the submission process.

If you believe getting published is a crapshoot, you can turn it into one real fast.
 

Danthia

A while back Moonrat did a similar post about luck and publishing, and it inspired me to think about what was luck and what was hard work that got me my book deal. Here's a cut and paste of that post.

When I got my agent, everyone kept telling me how lucky I was, and they did the same thing when she sold my novel. I certainly consider myself lucky to have done both, but how much actual luck was involved and how much was, like Moonrat's post said, due to hard work?

I have a precise moment when my writing life changed forever (no, not when I got my agent). It was the moment that set me on a two-year path to publication. I know without a doubt that I wouldn't be where I am today if I had not gone down this path.

Here's a quick trip back, looking at what was luck and what was work. I think you'll find there's a good blend of the two, but I wouldn't have been able to be lucky in some instances if I hadn't been doing the work. We make our own luck sometimes. Other times, we jump in Luck's way so she has to hit us.

LUCK: My best friend hearing about the Surrey International Writer's Conference. I wasn't looking for a conference and would never have found this one if she hadn't come across it and said, "Doesn't this look awesome? Let's go!"

WORK: Singing up for the conference and flying across the country to attend. Deciding to take the extra Master Classes the day before, primarily the "How to Pitch Your Book" one, since I had no clue how to pitch my book. I wanted to be ready.

LUCK: The other Master Class that day was about tension, given by agent Donald Maass. This is the actual class that turned on the light bulbs in my brain and made me realize the things I needed to realize to write the book I sold. (For the record, the pitch class was also very helpful, even though it did make me realize the book I was pitching that year was not sellable. I guess I was also lucky in that this class gave me a wake up call about a book I couldn't sell, but didn't know I couldn't)

WORK: Coming home and digging through every old story idea I had, looking for the fresh, original idea the conference folks talked about all weekend.

LUCK: Finding years-old handwritten notes about a boy who could shift pain from person to person. (The idea for that story really sucked, but the core idea hit me and I couldn't stop thinking about it.)

WORK: Taking everything I'd learned from both the conference and my years of studying writing and then writing The Shifter. (Or The Pain Merchants for my UK friends). And having it ready for the next Surrey conference.

LUCK: Seeing two internet query opportunities from agents I was interested in, right before the conference. Both led to full manuscript requests.

WORK: The time I took to find blogs and writer's forums to keep up on the industry so I could find opportunities like the above when they arose. And researching which agents liked the kind of book I'd written, and who were the best candidates to query.

LUCK: That the next Surrey conference had four agents I was interested in as presenters, who were also taking pitch appointments.

WORK: Going to Surrey again. And polishing my pitch as best I could so I'd be ready.

LUCK: Having an offer of representation waiting in my e-mail the day I got home from the conference.

WORK: Letting the four agents reading my book know I had an offer, and taking a closer look at each of them so I'd be ready if more offers came in.

LUCK: Having several of those agents interested and make offers.

WORK: Having to pick one. (This was VERY HARD WORK)

LUCK: Making the right choice. (Though honestly, I couldn't have gone wrong with any of them. They were all fabulous)

WORK: Doing all the edits my agent asked me to do so we could submit the book.

LUCK: Having my book ready to submit to editors just when a new imprint was launching, with a top-notch editor who happened to have a long relationship with my agent.

WORK: Waiting while my agent did the negotiation thing with multiple editors. (This is way harder that you'd think)

LUCK: Having my book chosen for Balzer+Bray's launch list. (Which is both an honor, and a great opportunity for my book)

WORK: Doing all the edits my wonderful new editor asked for. Then doing them again. And again. And being blown away by the copy editor as we speak (or as I type.)

LUCK: Having such amazing people working on my book. I made a joke yesterday that I feel like the Verizon guy. I turn around, and there they are--all these folks who are working hard so that my book is the best it can be and does well for all of us.

Luck certainly played a part, but if I hadn't been working hard and doing everything I could to be ready, the luck wouldn't have mattered.

I had to be ready to be so lucky.
 

Julie Worth

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Luck plays a part in success stories in every field. Publishing is no different. Victoria says:

"If you’ve written a marketable book, if you done your research, if you’re smart and persistent, you have a very reasonable chance of finding publication."

A reasonable chance, ie, luck. You help it along all you can, but the aspect of chance is always there. And there is even more of a random aspect to your work becoming a huge success, once you've found publication. The closest you can come to a guarantee is to have a million dollar advance.
 
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Steam&Ink

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Who was it that said "the harder I work, the luckier I am"? (It's been attributed to several people but I think Thomas Jefferson might be the earliest...)

Anyway, as will be obvious from her blog, Strauss is not saying that luck plays NO part whatsoever in success (and that applies to success in any career). I think Danthia's post shows this nicely!

But Strauss is disputing the attitude of many new writers that "all manuscripts are equal, and some writers get lucky".

And there is even more of a random aspect to your work becoming a huge success, once you've found publication. The closest you can come to a guarantee is to have a million dollar advance.

I agree with this. Success after publication has a lot more to do with the resources your publishign company is willing to put in your novel, and less to do with the talent and hard work you put into writing it (not nothing, of course!).
 
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IceCreamEmpress

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To quote Louis Pasteur, "Chance favors only the prepared mind."

You can't make your luck the best it can be, but you can make your book the best it can be.
 

Steam&Ink

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Exactly. As my husband succinctly put it: it's not about luck, it's about probability.

If you have some talent and work hard, and produce a well-written novel, which is well-paced, original and marketable -- you've dramatically improved your probability of being published.
"Luck" suggests a randomness to the publishing industry. There may be a little randomness, but no more than in any other industry. Few people would suggest that a CEO of a Fortune 500 got there through random chance.
 
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Rhoda Nightingale

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Great story, Danthia. I tell people all the time about Strauss's post on publishing and how it really works. It makes all the numbers and statistics in Writer's Marketplace less scary.

I'm familiar with the "work" aspect of writing. In terms of "luck," there are only a couple things that come to mind, one of them being the way I found this forum--through a friend on LiveJournal who I "met" based on our mutual love of horror movies and comic books. I had no idea she was an aspiring writer, and she didn't know I was one either, but she directed me here. I know, I'm far from being published as of now, but I still think my probability has increased substantially since I found this place.
 

Julie Worth

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Few people would suggest that a CEO of a Fortune 500 got there through random chance.

I think this is a statement based on philosophy or wishful thinking. Even gaining the presidency of the US is sometimes a matter of luck. Gerald Ford, for instance. Ford had neither the ambition nor ability, but he had the luck.
 

blacbird

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I think this is a statement based on philosophy or wishful thinking. Even gaining the presidency of the US is sometimes a matter of luck. Gerald Ford, for instance. Ford had neither the ambition nor ability, but he had the luck.

But Ford's ascendancy was anything but random luck. He had a long career in the House of Representatives, and was Minority Leader. In other words, he had earned a position of high profile within his Party, and was well-regarded, even by the opposition. When Nixon's imbecilic choice for VP, Spiro Agnew, was obliged to resign to avoid going to jail for bribes he took years earlier, Ford became a logical choice to replace Agnew, a man who could win easy confirmation by Congress. He wouldn't have been that without his prior work and accomplishments.

Nixon's future was already unraveling when Ford became VP. Thank Heaven Agnew was gone.
 

Steam&Ink

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I think this is a statement based on philosophy or wishful thinking. Even gaining the presidency of the US is sometimes a matter of luck. Gerald Ford, for instance. Ford had neither the ambition nor ability, but he had the luck.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree, because I think ascribing other people's success to luck is "wishful thinking".


PS I'm not saying everyone who is successful (such as a US president) is the right person for the job. But there is a reason that they're successful, and it's because they reduced their probability of failure by working hard and working smart. We writers can take a leaf from that philosophy book, I think!
 

BrooklynLee

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Ditto steampunkette. I very much believe in the old saw, "you make your own luck."
 

Shadow_Ferret

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If you have some talent and work hard, and produce a well-written novel, which is well-paced, original and marketable -- you've dramatically improved your probability of being published.
"Luck" suggests a randomness to the publishing industry. There may be a little randomness, but no more than in any other industry.

Whatever you call it, luck or "randomness," the point is for some, it is still a crap shoot because not every well-written book gets published.
 

Peggy Blair

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I was rejected over 150 times. I decided to submit my ms to the Debut Dagger competition in the UK. I was shortlisted. I went to Harrogate (from Canada) for the Awards night, just in case I won. Sorry to say, I lost, although it was a lovely young guy from the UK who won that night.

On the way out the door to pack, I met one of the really well-known UK authors who had attended the festival who asked why I was there. When he found out I was unrepresented and unpublished, he suggested I contact his Canadian publisher. I did. She suggested I contact a certain UK agent, which I did, and he now represents my work, thanks to those referrals.

I'm still not published, but my agent is shopping my ms around to the big publishing houses I certainly couldn't have accessed by myself.

Hard work? Or luck?

I think it's a mistake to credit either one alone. I did the work, yes. But if I hadn't had that chance meeting in the Harrogate bar, I wouldn't have eventually found my agent. Life is full of opportunities. If I hadn't gone to England, if I had decided the cost outweighed the risk, that door wouldn't have opened. You do make your own luck.
 

blacbird

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Whatever you call it, luck or "randomness," the point is for some, it is still a crap shoot because not every well-written book gets published.

Every book that gets published (respectably, not counting vanity, etc.) is better than every book that doesn't, by the only objective standard that can be applied. Period.
 

Terie

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I don't think Julie is saying 'luck is all there is to it'. But I agree with Julie that there is a tiny aspect of luck. I submitted a novel that was rejected because, the editor told me later, they'd just bought a similar series. That was a bit of bad luck. If I'd submitted the book to her a month earlier, she probably would've bought it. Same book was accepted elsewhere.

The work has to be good, no doubt about it. But, as other have said, not every good book gets published. No publisher publishes every single publishable book that is submitted to them. Most accept about half of the subs that are in that teeny-tiny percentage of books that are good enough.

For example, you can get rejected for the reason I did: they just bought something else similar. Or because they just put a moratorium on, say, sports novels, and your submission is a sports novel. Or because they're downsizing. Or for any of a zillion other reasons. The fact is that if some small element of luck weren't involved, then every single publishable book would get picked up by the first publisher to whom it was submitted. It's actually the norm for a book to get rejected at least a few times before it's accepted.

Luck is involved in getting it on just the right editor's or agent's desk at just the right moment. But no amount of luck will help a book that isn't already of publishable quality. 'Luck' is probably the smallest factor of all in the 'getting published' game, but I do believe it does play a tiny role.
 

izanobu

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I think you also have to look at it as a factor of scale. Getting published isn't a crap shoot, getting THIS ONE book might be a bit of one (or at least with luck factored in more).
It's like in poker. I'm a winning player over the long term, but that doesn't mean I win every hand I play.
And in publishing I don't think a person can expect to publish everything they write (especially not at first). The first book might not get there, but if a writer works hard, writes many books, learns their craft, and continues to place themselves in a position where they can succeed (ie they have products to sell to people who can buy them), then a writer will probably, in the long run, become published. A career is not a crap shoot, a single book succeeding or failing could be.

That's kinda how I see it, anyway :)
 

JohnnyGottaKeyboard

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Every book that gets published (respectably, not counting vanity, etc.) is better than every book that doesn't, by the only objective standard that can be applied. Period.


So, if I go to Bel Air Market and buy my Pepsi for $1.49, it's better than the one I could have purchased at Food4Less for 99 cents? Just seeing if your theory holds up to extrapolation...