Weren't they moderates?

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3621118,00.html

During the memorial, held at Abbas' Mukataa compound in the West Bank city of Ramallah, the Palestinian president said, "The path of the shahids - Arafat, George Habash (founder of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine) and (assassinated Hamas spiritual leader) Sheikh Ahmed Yassin - is the path that we cherish; it is aimed at upholding the Palestinians' nationalist and sovereign resolutions."

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I forgot, this is the same guy who said he was "proud of firing the first bullet of the resistance" or something of the sort.

SC Harrison said:

This is a little off-topic, but how did the elections go? Who's the Mayor of Jerusalem, who's looking strong in the Knesset, etc.?

I don't even know what time it is there. It's Tuesday night, right?

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The municipal elections will close at 10 if I am not mistaken (this is in about an hour and a half). The elections to Knesset are set on Febuary 10th. Kadima with Livni and Likud with Netanyahu are neck and neck in the polls (around 30 Knesset members each). Laibor crashes to around 11-12 KM's. Lieberman is probably going to pick up a couple more votes. I personally don't see a coalition without Kadima and Likud, unless Likud wins and Netanyahu chooses to go with far right and religious coalition, which is somewhat doubtful. Likud and Kadima are not that far apart, actully. Livni is on the left side of Kadima and about half of them are basically on Likud positions. If the go together (maybe take Lieberman), they'll have a stable coalition of about 75 KM. Go by themselves and they are vulnerable to extortion by small parties (which brought us here in the first place).

SC Harrison said:

Okay, so...as of right now, you guys don't really have a Prime Minister. It should be Livni, but Netanyahu scared the religious crazies into thinking she would give away the farm (I'm making this up as I go), so she couldn't form a majority coalition. But it can't (shouldn't) be Netanyahu yet, because Livni beat him in the last election (I think), and it shouldn't be Olmert, because he resigned as leader of Kadima. But...Olmert is going to remain PM until the February elections, right?

I think I've finally figured out why Israel decided on this form of Parliamentary government—it provides for a nearly unlimited supply of intriguing cafe conversation.

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There is a transitional government until the election (which is the previous coalition). Since Olmert resigned as PM, Livni is a temporary PM now (we don't vote for PM but for parties).
Netanyahu didn't scare anybody. Shas (a religious party that Livni tried to woe) always opposed division of Jerusalem. It made it a condition of them joining the coalition that Jerusalem is taken off the table in negotiations. Livni refused. It is not entirely clear whether this was the only reason for them not reaching some sort of agreement (God knows Shas sat in a coalition with Laibor during Oslo and with Ehud Barak and their stance on Jerusalem didn't stop them). Another sticking issue was children's subsidies. Before Netanyahu was Finance Minister in Sharon's government, there were progressive subsidies for children. You got more money (per child) the more children you had. This practice started as means to encourage child birth (and this way deal with the demographics of our area). However, with time, it became mainly a subsidy to religious families as secular child birth slowly declined to no more than 3-4 children (while in religious families you can find nine and even ten children). This also created a situation that there was no drive to go to work for such families. During the economic downturn, Netanyahu drastically cut spending and one of the things he did was to make the subsidies the same for every child, regardless of the number. Why am I telling you this? Because one of the sticking points in Livni's negotiation with Shas was taking the wheel back -- they demanded additional 600mil Sheqels for child subsidies. This would breach the budget ceiling. Livni agreed to add 200mil and then the negotiations stalled. It is unclear what was the main issue. My hinch, given my familiarity with Shas -- the money was more important.

SC Harrison said:

Now, my next question is: what impact (if any) will our recent election of Obama and a widening majority of Congressional Democrats have on KM seats and/or coalitions come February?

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I don't think there will be any influence, unless Obama's actions somehow tilt the scales one way or another. The Congress definitely wouldn't have an impact. Given Obama's stances, if Netanyahu is elected, I see a somewhat colder relations between Israel and US, but it also highly depends on what exactly the situation is.

Well, Nir Barkat (a secular businessman and a council member) won elctions in Jerusalem. Ron Huldai will remain mayor of Tel-Aviv (won against a communist candidate that got 34% of the vote). I doubt any of the local elections will influence any outside policy. These elections tend to be with no regard to party affiliation.

SC Harrison said:

Thanks, Demytry. It's kind of hard for people immersed in a two-party system to grasp the significance of small(er) parties being able to wield influence like they can under a parliamentary system. Good stuff.

I do find this somewhat confusing:



By Shas declining Livni's offer, doesn't it call into question her ability to form a coalition, which (could) hurt Kadima and make it more likely that Netanyahu and Likud will gain a couple of seats in Febrruary, thus ending up with Shas not getting any money for child subsidies? I may be missing something, but it looks like they're shooting themselves in the foot.

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Shas is expected to pick up a couple additional mandates as well. They also feel Likud is the more natural ally for them. Maybe they think Netanyahu would give them what they want, but I doubt it'll happen. *shrug* I guess they expected Livni to cave and not to go to elections because she risks a lot.

EDIT: I think they are also banking on getting what they want by being the swing vote.
The coalition today is Kadima (29), Laibor (21) and Retirees (7). There is also Meretz (I think they have 5), Arab parties and Communists (10). These ones are waaaay to the left and Livni doesn't want to bring them into the coalition. The right wing has Likud (14), Lieberman (13), Shas (13), Yahadut ha-Torah (I think 3 -- they are another religious party that always go with Shas), Mafdal and Ihud Leumi (one is religious/nationalistic and another ultra-right they merged a week or so ago, something like 10).
After the elections the far right and the far left are expected to remain the same. Laibor crashes to 11-12, the Retirees disappear (they were basically the protest vote in the last elections). Kadima is supposed to retain similar numbers and Likud to grow to similar numbers as well. Shas and Lieberman may pick up a couple of votes each. As you see, unless Likud goes with Kadima, they will need Shas.