What is the environmental cost of AI?

ElaineB

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This isn’t about the quality of AI or its use, but the environmental impact. In case it needs to move to another section.

Publishing guru Jane Friedman asks the question, What is the environmental cost of AI?

She links to a Substack that looks only at the cost of ChatGPT. That blogger, Andy Masely, links to an MIT article and another blogger (who seems to have more bona fides that he does).

It’s…a lot to slog through and I find myself drawn down this rabbit hole even though I should be editing my WIP.

Andy Masely’s post: “Why using ChatGPT is not bad for the environment - a cheat sheet”

Jane Friedman describes him as a “former physics teacher.” I couldn’t find any other description that would give him bona fides on this topic. This is a second post; he links to a longer post, but I didn’t go there.

This post has a footnote that pretty much lost it for me (trusting his argument):
To be 100% clear, the broader climate, energy, and water impacts of AI are very real and worth worrying about. Some readers have jumped from my title to say “He thinks AI isn’t an environmental problem? This is propaganda. AI is a massive growing part of our energy grid.” This post is not meant to debunk climate concerns about AI. It’s only meant to debunk climate concerns about chatbot use (and, as I note in the intro, image generation).
I don’t think that should be a footnote.

He’s looking at our individual footprint of a ChatGPT prompt. How bad can it be when it’s a fraction of the energy an individual uses overall? So don’t sweat it, he concludes. There are bigger things to worry about.

I always get my hackles up when people say things like that. I worked for a trail conservation organization and we tried to convince hikers that cutting corners, going off trail, is a bad thing. So to me Masely’s argument is like saying, well, the square inches of my boot soles are X and displace Y amount of dirt with each step, which really is nothing compared to a one-hour downpour that would erode Z amount of dirt. Fuck that. My argument is, sure, your boots may not cause damage (though in some cases, one step onto an endangered plant could render it extinct), but 7 million people visit the White Mountains every year. What if 7 million people did what you did? Honestly, to me, this is the whole problem of humanity, or at least Americans.

Masely mentions MIT Review’s article, “We did the math on AI’s energy footprint. Here’s the story you haven’t heard.”

Bottom line (literally):
When you ask an AI model to write you a joke or generate a video of a puppy, that query comes with a small but measurable energy toll and an associated amount of emissions spewed into the atmosphere. Given that each individual request often uses less energy than running a kitchen appliance for a few moments, it may seem insignificant.

But as more of us turn to AI tools, these impacts start to add up. And increasingly, you don’t need to go looking to use AI: It’s being integrated into every corner of our digital lives.

Crucially, there’s a lot we don’t know; tech giants are largely keeping quiet about the details. But to judge from our estimates, it’s clear that AI is a force reshaping not just technology but the power grid and the world around us.

Masely follows up with “Reactions to MIT Technology Review's report on AI and the environment.” And disagrees with the above conclusion.

Basically, he wants to parse one kind of AI over another—text prompts and images use less energy than a video, so skip the video and you can feel good about AI. He says, “All my posts have been about why your individual chatbot use is not harming the climate.” Is he aware of how many people there are on the planet and how many are using AI? (Whether they know it or not.)

I mean, sure, there are bigger problems facing the climate, but to dismiss AI use by an individual because it’s a drop in the bucket is not helping. Every asshole on the highway thinks it’s just fine to go 20 miles over the speed limit. They don’t care that they’re wasting gas (except those Tesla drivers, of course. They aren’t assholes wasting gas, they’re assholes endangering every other driver out there.)

Without getting through all of it, I’ll lead with my bias that I trust MIT Review and its sources more than “former physics teacher.”

All of these articles admit energy use of AI is a guessing game because AI companies don’t feel the need to tell us what energy they are using. So we have to find other ways, such as what infrastructure are they building and how are they powering it?

For example, “Elon Musk’s xAI powering its facility in Memphis with ‘illegal’ generators.”
It’s been known that xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, has been using around 15 portable generators to help power its massive supercomputer in Memphis without yet securing permits. But new aerial images obtained by the Southern Environmental Law Center show that number is now far higher. The group says these gas turbines combined can generate around 420MW of electricity, enough to power an entire city.

Within one to two miles of xAI are several residential neighborhoods, where the people who live there have long dealt with industrial pollution. This area is historically Black and has higher rates of cancer and asthma and a lower life expectancy than other parts of the city.

Google, Elementl back 1800 MW nuclear power project for data centers in US
“Nuclear energy can provide around-the-clock abundant and reliable electricity, making it an attractive solution to meet rising energy demand from AI and data centers,” said US DOE in a press release.

Preservation Virginia lists historic battlefields among endangered sites thanks to data centers
Manassas National Battlefield Park in Prince William County and Wilderness Battlefied in Orange County are among 11 sites identified in this year’s report. Both are located near large-scale data center projects that have already been approved, including the 2,100-acre Prince William Digital Gateway in western Prince William.

Other historic sites in Prince William County have also been affected by data center-related construction. Grading work for a new Iron Mountain data center and a Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative substation has reportedly disturbed two historic Black cemeteries in Gainesville. Preservation groups and descendants raised concerns after grave markers were displaced and questioned whether proper surveys had been conducted.

And water usage?

Voices: Data centers must be transparent about water usage — for the sake of the Great Salt Lake
The data center is just one of roughly two dozen in the Great Salt Lake Basin, which has become a popular area to build data centers due to the region’s cheap water and business-friendly policies.
Cheap water? In Utah? Where the Great Salt Lake is dying? I mean…

Regulators currently do not understand how much water is being used in this sector, making it almost impossible to set conservation targets and policies to encourage data centers run by private companies and government agencies to reduce water usage.

You get the idea. These kinds of arguments always lead me back to Hope Jahren, “Use less, share more.”
 

Alessandra Kelley

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Report: Creating a 5-second AI video is like running a microwave for an hour

According to the MIT Technology Report's investigation, to create a five-second video, a newer AI model uses "about 3.4 million joules, more than 700 times the energy required to generate a high-quality image". That's the equivalent of running a microwave for over an hour.
The researchers tallied up the amount of energy it would cost if someone, hypothetically, asked an AI chatbot 15 questions, asked for 10 images, and three five-second videos. The answer? Roughly 2.9 kilowatt-hours of electricity, which is the equivalent of running a microwave for over 3.5 hours.

More full report from MIT here (also mentioned in the OP):
 

Alessandra Kelley

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Oh huh, apparently generating images uses less energy than generating text.

The energy required by a given diffusion model doesn’t depend on your prompt—generating an image of a skier on sand dunes requires the same amount of energy as generating one of an astronaut farming on Mars. The energy requirement instead depends on the size of the model, the image resolution, and the number of “steps” the diffusion process takes (more steps lead to higher quality but need more energy).

Generating a standard-quality image (1024 x 1024 pixels) with Stable Diffusion 3 Medium, the leading open-source image generator, with 2 billion parameters, requires about 1,141 joules of GPU energy. With diffusion models, unlike large language models, there are no estimates of how much GPUs are responsible for the total energy required, but experts suggested we stick with the “doubling” approach we’ve used thus far because the differences are likely subtle. That means an estimated 2,282 joules total. Improving the image quality by doubling the number diffusion steps to 50 just about doubles the energy required, to about 4,402 joules. That’s equivalent to about 250 feet on an e-bike, or around five and a half seconds running a microwave. That’s still less than the largest text model.

This might be surprising if you imagined generating images to require more energy than generating text. “Large [text] models have a lot of parameters,” says Chung, who performed the measurements on open-source text and image generators featured in this story. “Even though they are generating text, they are doing a lot of work. ” Image generators, on the other hand, often work with fewer parameters.
 
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Yeah, they should stick to wind-powered AI. Far less dangerous. :p
Nah. Wind powered AI is for the birds.

(hur hur hur)

(it's not speciest if you make jokes about your own species)
 
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Nah. Wind powered AI is for the birds.

(hur hur hur)

(it's not speciest if you make jokes about your own species)

idk, with all the hot air around genAI's potential, it seems perfect
 

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Alabamians Want Answers About a Four-Million-Square-Foot Data Center Coming to Their Backyards
Now, this could be about AI...or not. No one really knows.
If built to planned capacity, the data center would be one of the largest in the United States and could become one of the largest single consumers of electricity in the state. Of nearly a dozen residents interviewed by Inside Climate News, none expressed support for the project as planned. Instead, all shared fear and frustration over their inability to obtain information about the $14.5 billion proposal from politicians charged with representing the public.

The mayor, his chief of staff and the city’s attorney all signed a non-disclosure agreement with the developer, staffers said, and would not be able to answer questions about the project.
Public officials signed a non-disclosure agreement? Yikes!

The company behind the project is a newly created limited liability company, Logistics Land Investments LLC, first formed in May 2023, according to records from the Delaware Secretary of State. The company’s registered agent is not a person, according to business records, but the Corporation Trust Company, also based in Delaware—an entity that has been used by large tech companies like Google and Apple for corporate dealings in the past.

There’s so much more. Water use. Land loss. Fire risk. Light and sound pollution (never mind air pollution from generators if the power goes out). In western Mass., folks are livid at the idea of cutting down forest to put up solar panels, as has been discussed as the state works to meet its climate goals. One town is fighting a battery storage facility that would be in forest and strain local fire departments if there ever was a fire.

“When you’re dealing with public funds and public ordinances, there should be no NDA,” Ron Morgan said.
 

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Could be AI. Could be bitcoin mining. Whatever it is, it is guaranteed it’s not for any public good.
Public officials signed a non-disclosure agreement? Yikes!
Yeah. BIG red flags there.
There’s so much more. Water use. Land loss. Fire risk. Light and sound pollution (never mind air pollution from generators if the power goes out). In western Mass., folks are livid at the idea of cutting down forest to put up solar panels, as has been discussed as the state works to meet its climate goals. One town is fighting a battery storage facility that would be in forest and strain local fire departments if there ever was a fire.
A double handful of reasons why robust government regulation of the environment and the public good, with a well supported and plentiful crew of reasonably paid public servants with scientific expertise independent of politics, dedicated to the welfare of all people regardless of their political or religious affiliation, with the job to openly investigate, research, inspect, question and advise… is a vital pillar of a healthy democracy.
 

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I feel you can sort of tell by the excuses that people no longer can intellectually ignore the AI environmental impacts once they really look into it but, by god, they will try because it's so darn convenient.


He’s looking at our individual footprint of a ChatGPT prompt. How bad can it be when it’s a fraction of the energy an individual uses overall? So don’t sweat it, he concludes. There are bigger things to worry about.

I can sort of see a point, but it lacks considerable nuance. And as it stands it will do more harm than good.

There have been several schemes across Europe finding that private gardens hold a lot of wildlife, sometimes more than the natural spaces in areas and countries that have dense human occupation. In so much that if like 60% of garden owners adopt a more ecological approach to their gardens (reduce mowing frequency, feeding wildlife, reducing chemical pestcontrol etc) they can have a measurable, positive influence on the remaining natural spaces outside the gardens. In that view individual footprint is important.

But it can also become a crutch for the industry and government, that have caused the problems to go unchecked, not to take actions themselves. If they make it the individual people's responsibility they can go about their business as usual.

There has been a factory in the nearby city that has been there for decades, and is now surrounded by housing. For decades that factory has been releasing chemicals in that environment that harm human health and development. This negative effect, most clearly with lead depositions, was measurable and undeniably. What they did is teach people how to clean and use their garden to minimise the uptake of the lead. they even had teams visiting people's houses for this for years. So if your kiddo was slow at school because the lead in his blood was off the charts? Well, then clearly you didn't vacuum often enough!

Until one documentary team made a documentary stating how effed up that was in reality, to expect people to buy performative vacuum cleaners and learn how to aereate their house without opening windows whereas (shocker) the factory could take measures to just diminish their polution and the whole circus would become unnecessary. They eventually ended up doing so, but they made it individual people's responsibility for years.
 

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I know she’s fictional, but Sarah Connor warned us about this in tbe 90s. Our scientists, engineers and IT people may live to regret some of this if they don’t adequately consider the possible outcomes.
I rewatched T2 recently and was kind of stunned by it--felt a lot more relevant and less like fiction. Lots of fiction (and nonfiction, frankly) is warning us about this, but does anyone care?
 

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I rewatched T2 recently and was kind of stunned by it--felt a lot more relevant and less like fiction. Lots of fiction (and nonfiction, frankly) is warning us about this, but does anyone care?
Because I am me :), I feel obligated to point out GenAI is not Skynet, and it will not evolve into Skynet. You can't get there from here. It's as likely as my cat becoming a nuclear power plant.

The path to AGI, should there be one, does not go through ChatGPT and Midjourney.

The danger comes from humans who attribute agency to these autocomplete machines. That's a big danger! But it's a very human one.