Russia monstering Ukraine

[mccardey]

This has got to be deeply scary for Ukraine - I find it unnerving and I'm in Australia...

Russia has begun moving troops to Ukraine’s northern neighbour Belarus for joint military exercises, in a move likely to increase fears in the west that Moscow is preparing for an invasion.

The joint military exercises, named United Resolve, are to take place as Russia also musters forces along Ukraine’s eastern border, threatening a potential invasion that could unleash the largest conflict in Europe for decades.

 

[Ravioli]

I find it absolutely outrageous that Biden and Putin are talking about Ukraine without Ukraine as if either of them has any authority concerning Ukraine. Like... this isn't a "conflict", there are no equal interests here, a sovereign nation is under attack and world leaders are acting like two kids are fighting over the last copy of a Mickey Mouse issue. Russia's interests beyond Russia's borders are irrelevant. Every country's interests beyond its own borders should be irrelevant.

 

[SWest]

Some Senators were interviewed today and were all like, "Well, we've told Putin to behave, and so he will."

 

[mccardey]

There was a rather good explainer in the SMH today.

Officially, Russia has denied it intends to invade while the US and the UK are already sending weapons to Ukraine.

What is the Kremlin after? What could happen if diplomacy fails? And what does it mean for the rest of the world?

 

[Diana Hignutt]

I hate to say it, but Russia is going to take Ukraine, and the West will use very, strongly-worded language and some sanctions in return, just like they did with Crimea a few years ago.

 

[stephenf]

There was a rather good explainer in the SMH today.

Russia is a big and old empire. It has been I decline for a number of years. The collapse of the Berlin wall was the start of the disintegration of the old USSR . . The Kremlin is worried about Ukraine joining NATO, it would be an adversary moving into a border country .There is a lot of internal opposition to Putin . Putin has been locking up , executing and assassinating anybody that opposes him . Having enemies at the gate and talking war keeps Putin in a position of power

 

[stephenf]

I hate to say it, but Russia is going to take Ukraine, and the West will use very, strongly-worded language and some sanctions in return, just like they did with Crimea a few years ago.

I don't know if Russia will invade Ukraine . But there is no comparison to Crimea . Crimea is a small peninsula with a population of about 2.5 million of ethnic Russians . Ukraine is the second biggest country in Europe, after Russia, with a population of 45 million .

 

[Helix]

Russia is a big and old empire. It has been I decline for a number of years. The collapse of the Berlin wall was the start of the disintegration of the old USSR . . The Kremlin is worried about the Ukraine joining NATO, it would be an adversary moving into a border country .There is a lot of internal opposition to Putin . Putin has been locking up , executing and assassinating anybody that opposes him . Having enemies at the gate and talking war keeps Putin in a position of power

I don't know if Russia will invade Ukraine . But there is no comparison to Crimea . Crimea is a small peninsula with a population of about 2.5 million of ethnic Russians . The Ukraine is the second biggest country in Europe, after Russia, with a population of 45 million .

It's Ukraine, not the Ukraine.

 

[Albedo]

There was a rather good explainer in the SMH today.

It's a good article, but using the Russian name for Kyiv is definitely, uh, a choice.

 

[Roxxsmom]

If Russia does decide to invade Ukraine, there's not much western powers can do besides strongly worded hand wringing and sanctions. A war between western powers and Russia would be catastrophic, and everyone knows it.

It all comes down to whether or not Russia really "wants" to take on the mess of invading and occupying a country that hates it.

 

[mccardey]

It's a good article, but using the Russian name for Kyiv is definitely, uh, a choice.

I missed that completely... Old age rears its befuddled little head again.

 

[Albedo]

I missed that completely... Old age rears its befuddled little head again.

weirdly the image caption used the Ukrainian name. two different editors? do newspapers still have editors? regardless, geopolitical sensitivity readers really should be a thing.

 

[Diana Hignutt]

It's a good article, but using the Russian name for Kyiv is definitely, uh, a choice.

Honestly, they might as well. It's about to be Russian.

 

[Alina's Universe]

Honestly, they might as well. It's about to be Russian.

I feel like that's a choice of words that I wouldn't want to see anywhere on the internet, especially here. Please be mindful of those, who might read it. That one sentence have cut deeper that it should've.

I was searching for 'Ukraine' in hopes of finding someone from my country on here, finding this thread instead. I know everyone is worried, and scared, and confused, but you still need to understand that it's real people you're talking about, real lives. And I can tell you one thing, Ukrainians won't ever accept being under any other country, simply because we have our own culture, history, and language. We know who we are as a nation and what we've been through historically. Maybe, it's our destiny as a nation to suffer through all this constant fear and threat, as history has proven we're, for whatever reason, wanted as a land or people to other nations. But we've always come back to being Ukraine, and we always will. Because people know who they are. Again, this is just one opinion from one Ukrainian, but I feel like I can share it since it's my home that's discussed here.

Sorry for the long post and sort of blabbering, everyone. Just something that's been on my mind lately. Especially since I just came back to Kyiv to see my family after long years of the stupid pandemic.

 

[mccardey]

I can tell you one thing, Ukrainians won't ever accept being under any other country, simply because we have our own culture, history, and language. We know who we are as a nation and what we've been through historically.

This we know.

You are such a brave country, such a brave people. And this must be terrifying.

ETA: This

US and UK order departure of Ukraine embassy families as war fears mount​

ETA 2: and This

 

[Alina's Universe]

ETA: This

US and UK order departure of Ukraine embassy families as war fears mount​

ETA 2: and This

That's a responsible thing to do from governments, protecting their people in a face of a threat.

I feel that one of the biggest sort of 'threats' west used to urge Russia to back off, was a possibility of cutting them off from the SWIFT system. I don't know if they might actually do it or not, considering the amount of business with Russia all EU countries have, but that's a lot more that 'urging' and 'warning'.

 

[Ztwist]

And I can tell you one thing, Ukrainians won't ever accept being under any other country, simply because we have our own culture, history, and language. We know who we are as a nation and what we've been through historically.

It is good to hear this. I really hope the international community supports Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. Can you tell us more about what people there are doing and feeling? Stockpiling supplies? Sending children away to the countryside like they did in the UK? Taking money out of the bank? Is it like covid in that it comes up in every conversation with everyone all the time?

 

[frimble3]

I feel like that's a choice of words that I wouldn't want to see anywhere on the internet, especially here. Please be mindful of those, who might read it. That one sentence have cut deeper that it should've.

I was searching for 'Ukraine' in hopes of finding someone from my country on here, finding this thread instead. I know everyone is worried, and scared, and confused, but you still need to understand that it's real people you're talking about, real lives. And I can tell you one thing, Ukrainians won't ever accept being under any other country, simply because we have our own culture, history, and language. We know who we are as a nation and what we've been through historically. Maybe, it's our destiny as a nation to suffer through all this constant fear and threat, as history has proven we're, for whatever reason, wanted as a land or people to other nations. But we've always come back to being Ukraine, and we always will. Because people know who they are. Again, this is just one opinion from one Ukrainian, but I feel like I can share it since it's my home that's discussed here.

Sorry for the long post and sort of blabbering, everyone. Just something that's been on my mind lately. Especially since I just came back to Kyiv to see my family after long years of the stupid pandemic.

My mother was Polish, and God knows those two countries have had a turbulent history, but, as immigrants, Eastern Europeans stuck together, and no-one would wish the Russians on their worst enemy. Which you are not.
I hope that your family stays safe.

 

[Alina's Universe]

Can you tell us more about what people there are doing and feeling? Stockpiling supplies? Sending children away to the countryside like they did in the UK? Taking money out of the bank? Is it like covid in that it comes up in every conversation with everyone all the time?

The thing is, Russia did attack already, 8 years ago. They just don't openly admit it. So this constant possibility of a larger attack has been there for that long. And I don't think even before that many people had illusions that they (Russia as a country and government, not people; who knows what their people think) meant only friendship towards Ukraine...
So when it comes to people, they live their lives. Your life doesn't stop because some mad man might or might not attack. People go to work, go to school, meet friends, celebrate things, deal with COVID, just like everywhere else really. Of course, there's always that thought on the back of your mind - "What if...", but in reality there's nothing you can do but live on and deal with things as they come.
It's harder for those, who relocated from east Ukraine after it was attacked. My close friend and her mom have nightmares and panic attacks nearly every day, because they've been through it. Yet, they continue living their lives too.
My husband (foreigner) and I also chose to come home now, despite all the news and reports, because when it comes to finally seeing those we love and a possible threat, we choose those we love.
That's why COVID didn't really stop life in Ukraine as it did in most countries around the world, people are used to adapt and live on.

I can't tell you what rich people are doing in that regard, they always have more options. But most of the nation just carries on, no other choice.

I hope that your family stays safe.

Thank you

 

[Alina's Universe]

If anyone is still following the news, considering it's been more and more these days, our president gave a great speech at the Munich Security Conference (it's a government web page, so should be safe to open).
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/new...QQ-ie0m9dukpPTjgsc0uaGxDIUXDeJitJE4gLWJXt0diY

As for the people, some are scared, some left to other towns or abroad, some ignore the situation, some are ready to fight in necessary, all continue on with their lives with a permanent fear at the back of their minds.

 

[Seakat]

I read somewhere Russia wouldn't invade until after the close the Beijing Olympics - that's today. President Jinping would be pretty annoyed if Russia starts a war before the Olympics finish goes the theory.

Long range weather forecast for the Eastern Europe is great (for tanks and wheeled vehicles) for the next week and reasonable flying conditions.

I'm not even sure if it's question of when now, just how much Russia grabs - a little bit (Donbas region), Eastern Ukraine as far as the Dnieper river, or the whole shebang.

I have this sinking feeling that Ukraine will turn into another Afghanistan or Syria if a Russian invasion happens, whether big or small. Hope I'm wrong, but if what the media is being feed by governments, and we are definitely not getting the whole picture, then the balloon will go up in the next week.

I found this strategic analysis prepared last week most interesting: Scenario Analysis on a Ukrainian Insurgency which is predicated on Russia invading at some level and then what the West will and will not do.

 

[dickson]

Predictions of what Putin will or will not do are worth the sand they are written on.

I do, however, think I know what the much-ballyhooed troop movements away from Ukraine are: Putin is moonwalking, with the silver toes of his dancing shoes pointed towards Russia.

 

[frimble3]

Well, the comparison to Afghanistan is interesting, considering how badly that went for Russia. 'Russia's Vietnam' I believe it was called.
Ukraine could be similar: people who have long-time anger at Russia (Homodor) and who have been expecting this for a while.
Can Putin handle another disaster of a military campaign, with his soldiers being killed and maimed?

 

[cbenoi1]

Russia is already stifling Ukraine economically. Meanwhile, the Wagner Group (equivalent of Blackwater) will be tasked with doing some small damages here and there to further destabilise the country and eliminate leaders when it has the opportunity. At some point Ukraine is expected to be ripe for a change in government and Russia will install its own puppet like Belarus.

No invasion. Right under NATO's nose and without the US sanction rampage.

Biden's turn now. He won't send troops inUkraine, nor will put into effect his sanctions unless Russia itself steps into Ukraine. But he can sort of make a part of the list public. Just that could have a delibitating effect on Russia's economy for quite some time.

No sanction. Right under Putin's nose and without spending a dime.

-cb

 

[Alina's Universe]

I have this sinking feeling that Ukraine will turn into another Afghanistan or Syria if a Russian invasion happens, whether big or small. Hope I'm wrong, but if what the media is being feed by governments, and we are definitely not getting the whole picture, then the balloon will go up in the next week.

That honestly has been my fear in all of this. What is needed is firm political and economical sanctions, but as history shows - everyone is quick to talk, and almost no action.

At some point Ukraine is expected to be ripe for a change in government and Russia will install its own puppet like Belarus.

I don't think that's gonna be a long term thing even if it does happen. We already had a pro-Russia president before, that's how the whole thing started. Maidan started (technically, started when they ordered police to beat up peaceful protesters, who protested against backing away from EU deal. The next day Maidan started, I was there with friends and my dad watching over us, no fighting first day. But quickly grew into just the politics against public wishes), people showed that they're willing to fight for their rights. Many died, many suffered, but people won. That president had to escape Ukraine and is now hiding out in Russia. Pro-Russians thinking and politics don't do well in Ukraine.

In fact, that's the second revolution with which we changed presidents. First one was the orange revolution (2004), funny enough against the same pro-Russian dude, whom later we had Maidan against. The 2004 one was peaceful though and it was right after the elections, people believed the results were falsified.

Russia is already stifling Ukraine economically.

That's the most annoying part! We as a country haven't done anything, we don't even fight to take back our own territory because we signed a peace treaty (yet the other side constantly opens fire). And with all that our currency keeps dropping, investors pull out of deals, foreigners leave, people are scared, and everyone keeps calling it "Ukraine crisis", like we're at fault. That's the 21 century war for you.