Heckuva good sport
- Oct 7, 2006
- Reaction score
- west coast, canada
An analysis of a COVID-19 cluster of around 900 people in Massachusetts—74 percent of whom are vaccinated—is among the alarming data that spurred the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to reverse course on masks this week.
According to an internal CDC document first obtained by The Washington Post, data on the Provincetown, Massachusetts, cluster showed that vaccinated people carried surprisingly high levels of the delta coronavirus in their noses and throats. More importantly, vaccinated people were found to be spreading the dangerous virus variant to other vaccinated people. Nationwide, the CDC estimated that there are 35,000 symptomatic breakthrough infections per week among 162 million fully vaccinated Americans.
The CDC document overall highlights that delta is extremely contagious—much more so than previous versions of the virus, as well as the common cold or even the seasonal flu. Delta is more in line with the contagiousness of chickenpox, the CDC document said.
US officials should acknowledge that with delta dominating the country, "the war has changed," the document read. Officials who spoke with the Post say that the analyses and the urgency the document contains are what prompted the CDC to reverse its masking guidance earlier this week. The CDC now recommends indoor masking, regardless of vaccination status, in schools, in areas with "high" or substantial" COVID-19 transmission, or when there's contact with vulnerable people, such as unvaccinated children or immunocompromised people.
But the document shared with the Post two days after the CDC mask update goes further, saying, "Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the delta variant."
I zonked out for a few hours with the first shot, and the second shot gave me no side effects at all. I guess we all have our own reactions.I got my second shot yesterday (much earlier than expected), which was nice! So far I've just had a sore arm and felt quite tired, but strangely the side effects seem less bad than with the first shot.
CNN's Gary Tuchman visits a county in Northwestern Colorado where the vaccination rate is low and the Covid-19 infection rate is high. The area is represented by Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), who is in defiance of new Covid rules on Capitol Hill.
Wow! The first hospital I ever worked in, my first job out of nursing school, was in Craig Colorado, a small town about 35 miles from where I lived in Steamboat Springs. They were just featured on CNN as a hospital in Loren Boebert's district that is experiencing an especially high rate of COVID 19 patients right now. Weird but this is an emotional moment for me.
Predictably, the model showed that a rapid rate of vaccination reduced the risk of a resistant strain emerging.
But in what the authors called a "counterintuitive result", the model showed that the highest risk of resistant strains emerging came when a large proportion of the population was vaccinated, but not large enough to ensure herd immunity.
This is in essence where much of Europe is currently, where the Delta variant is spreading rapidly.
The authors said the model showed a threshold of 60 percent of the population vaccinated, after which resistant variants were more likely to occur.
The situation in the US—where 60 percent of adults are fully vaccinated and 80 percent of new cases are caused by the Delta variant—is similar.
"Vaccines are our best bet to beat this pandemic" said co-author Simon Rella, from Austria's Institute of Science and Technology (IST).
"What our model showed is that when most people are vaccinated, the vaccine-resistant strain has an advantage over the original strain.
"This means that the vaccine-resistant strain spreads through the population faster than the original strain at a time when most people are vaccinated," Rella told journalists in an online briefing.
“This modelling study looks at the conditions which increase the risk of the emergence and establishment of a vaccine resistant variant. One of the key results is that the risk is highest when a large fraction of the population has been vaccinated, but transmission is also high. This is the situation we find ourselves in at the moment. It has to be remembered that this is a modelling study. The real world is always much more complex than can be represented in a model and chance will always play a key role. Nevertheless, studies like this can highlight threats and help us work through potential risk-mitigation strategies.” ...
“In this peer-reviewed modelling study, the authors use a model with SARS-CoV-2 like parameters to assess the potential emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, and the role of the impact of the rate of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the probability of the establishment of vaccine-resistant variants in the population.
“As stressed by the authors, the mechanism to adjust the transmission rate reflects the strengthening or relaxation of a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The model in the study does not attribute the effect of individual intervention measures on virus transmission rates.