publishing industry trends

erika

Super Member
Registered
Joined
Aug 16, 2006
Messages
170
Reaction score
27
Location
Georgia
I've done some research on the internet, but can't seem to get consistent information. What are the trends? Is the publishing industry in a contraction or expansion? What sectors have seen a decline or surge? I'm most interested in the fiction/non-fiction breakdown. What's the scoop? Are Americans still buying books at the same rate?

Thanks for the information.
 

Jamesaritchie

Super Member
Registered
Joined
Feb 13, 2005
Messages
27,863
Reaction score
2,311
erika said:
I've done some research on the internet, but can't seem to get consistent information. What are the trends? Is the publishing industry in a contraction or expansion? What sectors have seen a decline or surge? I'm most interested in the fiction/non-fiction breakdown. What's the scoop? Are Americans still buying books at the same rate?

Thanks for the information.

The numbers go up and down every year, but for the most part, rates haven't changed much, and more people are buying more books than ever before.

But I don't think anyone alive can really predict coming changes, or even trends. No matter what you write, but the time the book is finished and hits the market, EVERYTHING may have changed.
 

Jaws

Apex Predator
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Feb 12, 2005
Messages
582
Reaction score
221
Location
Loitering just offshore on the Silicon Prairie
Website
scrivenerserror.blogspot.com
There is no monolithic entity called "the publishing industry." It is instead a chaotic accretion of niche markets and firms. Even the Big Five act more like accretions than like integrated wholes.

This matters because there is no valid way to measure "the publishing industry" as a whole. As a specific example, fifteen years ago nobody would have put Tyndale House down as a major player in the publishing industry; the commercial success of the Left Behind series and its offshoots, spinoffs, etc. has changed the publishing industry forever (or for five years, anyway, which is forever in publishing). Similarly, fifteen years ago there was no Amazon, and nonbookstore sales of trade books were considered insignificant. And so on.

As far as the "fiction/nonfiction" breakdown, it has historically (that is, since the end of WW2, when aggregate figures became comparable from year to year) been about 75 nonfiction/25 fiction in trade publishing, with some variance but no real trend. Keep in mind that the big players in trade publishing are pretty quick to pick up on fads from other publishers and publishing segments, so trends of less than five to seven years of constant, predictable direction and magnitude are probably meaningless… and nothing I've seen indicates any such trend in progress at this time.

Whether Americans are "still buying books at the same rate" depends on both what you mean by "books" and what your baseline is, let alone whether you mean in the aggregate or per capita. Then there's the whole market-segmentation issue I alluded to at the top.

And thus, the short answer to this question is the same one you'll get from just about any well-trained lawyer on most questions:
It depends.
 

Gillhoughly

Grumpy writer and editor
Absolute Sage
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Feb 12, 2006
Messages
5,363
Reaction score
1,761
Location
Getting blitzed at Gillhoughly's Reef, Haleakaloha
In my experience the trend is over by the time anyone notices it as a trend. If publishers could predict them we'd all have a lot more money.

I've also been hearing (for the last 25 years) that publishing is in the toilet, things are tight, they're not buying this or that kind of book, theyaren'tbuyingfromwomen, theyaren'tbuyingfrommen, yadda-yadda-yadda.

Since I've been hearing the same dang stuff for the last quarter century I've chosen to ignore the fuss and just focus on writing something I'd like to read, making a good job of it, and let my agent figure out the rest.

Seems to work. ;)