My two pence: I think we have one hell of a glut going on. More writer submissions (than ever) and less sales = the door closing a little bit more. I've noticed this in my agent submissions, in my submissions, in reviews and sales numbers. YA has folded up in a number of places. I would expect to see genre and sub-genre cuts, but to cut an entire category is devastating to me, especially from the very large independents.
We most certainly do have a glut, and
have for some time.
I've been following publishing for over 40 years. There have always been too many books chasing too few readers, and too many manuscripts chasing too few publishers. (Too many bookstores chasing too few customers as well, as witness what happened to Borders vs B&N.)
Back before the Internet Ate the World and eBooks and self publishing were even possible, I saw ABA stats that over 50,000 traditionally published titles per year were issued in the US. That's essentially a thousand new books per
week. Who would buy and read them all? The answer was that
most would not be bought and read. They would not find an audience, die on the shelves, and be returned for credit. Publishers all crossed appendages that enough of what they published
would sell to cover the losses on what tanked and and make enough money for them to remain in business.
Now we have the Internet, eBooks, and self publishing, and it's more like a thousand new books a
day. The same question arises about who would buy and read them, with the same answer only worse. It's supply and demand. Supply has dramatically increased. Demand has remained flat or declined.
And publishing has been contracting, as houses fold or are merged into larger entities and imprints may go away. Most publishers no longer look at unsolicited manuscripts. Reading slush was always an editor's least favorite chore, and they mostly don't have time now if they
are willing to do it. Agents have become the gateways, and publishers tend to only look at submissions from recognized agents. The submission is no guarantee the publisher will think they can sell the book and make an offer, but at least it won't be "gouge out eyes with spoon after reading" bad. (And thinking about it, the shift from submitting a manuscript as hard copy to submission as a file attached to email is a factor, as it makes submission easier.)
And YA has been a relative bright spot. I was at a function at a B&N mall lo cation a while back. The store was on two floors. Pride of place on the ground floor went to the cafe, calendars, games, cards, gifts, magazines, and a couple of the current hardcover YA bestsellers. Actual
books were upstairs. The ground floor was devoted to what
sold. If it only carried books, that outlet would have been belly up.
I interact with the self-published/indie-published folks elsewhere. I tell them you must write, you must produce the best work you are capable of, and you must work your ass off to let your intended audience know that you and your work exist. But most important, you must have a benevolent deity who will work a miracle and give you a giant economy sized helping of
luck. You will almost certainly not be lucky.
I say "Write because you
must. Write because you can't imagine
not writing. Write because you would do so if you were the only person alive and no one else would ever see your work.
Don't write because you expect to get rich and famous and produce bestsellers and make a living at it, because you
won't. If you can't deal with that, find another hobby."
______
Dennis
