Unexpected pub offer, still on query

I'm putting this in its own thread so it won't get confused with similar situations.

I have a publisher offer that I didn't expect, while some queries are still out. I'm also beginning to have doubts about the book's commercial viability in the mainstream SFF markets. (Judging by what has happened recently to some similar authors who've been recruited through Diversity Bingo).

The mms is a 102K adult high fantasy with LGBTQIA elements, fairly polished from editorial feedback via recent pitch contests. A small (primarily) romance press who already publishes me favorited it in the spring. I sent them a copy, but they were really busy, couldn't promise to read it for months, and I wasn't certain it was something they'd really like. Reassured that I'd probably have time, I decided to try another query round in late June.

I had immediate agent responses: a couple of fulls, some partials, and swift rejections. Now that number is down to one full and two partials, I'm coming up on most of the other agents' close-out dates (if they don't contact me by then, they're not interested.)

The publisher can't give me the *potential* earnings of a Big Five imprint contract...but it turns out they adore this book. They like that it's more of a bisexual sweet romance than a fifteen-sex-scenes-per-book erotic romance. They're willing to put it on next spring's schedule, and give me a month to see if any agents bite.

My quandary (beyond that I queried agents while a publisher had it) is second guessing if there's any place for this book with SFF agents and markets. I see #MSWL posts that could be this book, but either in YA or from agents who've already rejected/timed out. I'm deciding whether to wait out the month to nudge the remainder with the offer, nudge them now, or write them to pull the book from consideration.

My biggest problem is that the book is linked with my published erotic romance book, and a larger science-fantasy series that can be bi, gay, or het depending on the specific books. It's going to have trouble with both romance and SFF readers. I'm thinking it makes sense to give the supporting publisher more priority. Plus, their contract terms aren't as interminable as many Big Five imprints' contracts. I can see what the market does, and self-publish later. I have no interest in querying solo to the few big pubs still open to unagented authors. (The biggest market, my favorite, already rejected an earlier version, so they're out.)

Why my change of heart? Between the time I queried agents and the time I heard from the publisher, I saw three heartbreaking stories of Big Five (agented) authors basically thrown under the bus when they didn't reach the right market or sales. In addition to the cautionary tales I already knew about like Sarah Monette and Harry Connolly.

I'm in the 'why bother' rut right now. I like the small press. They'll give this book everything they can. So I'm basically waiting out clocks right now, and trying to frame a really penitent nudge letter.

I went ahead and sent out most of my nudge letters tonight. Best to get this over with, one way or another.

Thanks for the well wishes, folks. I've been surprised at the requests for fulls and partials that came in overnight.

As for cautionary tales, some are already well-known in our AW community, but a refresher might be good.

Sarah Monette had to leave Ace and get a new pen name, to publish 'The Goblin Emperor' after her 'more gay' fantasy series stalled at Ace. (Much as Robin Hobb did two decades earlier). Harry Connolly had a great UF series at Del Rey, which stalled...so he went self-pub entirely on the sequels and a new fantasy series. I just heard about a YA author with a very commercially-oriented 'gaming' themed series, who just got dropped by her publisher. Alis Franklin had two great UF books, more horror-fantasy with slight gay content, from Random House Hydra. Those stalled, and when she wanted to branch temporarily away from the mild m/m romance for the third book, they weren't interested.

In the m/m romance category, the failure or downturn of half a dozen romance publishers has resulted in some great authors striking out on their own or working out direct imprint deals with bigger publishers.

We're fortunate that we have access to these options. Twenty to thirty years ago the mass market publishers could keep a tighter stranglehold on backlists. Self-pub and switching publishers/agents can be risky now, but at least we can try.

Lest some of you be freaking out at Ace, they have a new chief editor. So hopefully stuff like Monette's exit are less likely to happen.