Sure, but to paraphrase Ms Monroe...
...you wouldn't take on a manuscript just because it's recommended, but my goodness, doesn't it help?
If the literary market is ever-shrinking, then authors in that genre are bound to suffer from a bell curve effect, whereby only the small percentage at one end can be taken on, even if most people in the curve are perfectly competent.
I just can't fathom how connections are *not* a factor. Surely they must be. Surely it helps. There will always be a degree of attribution bias for people who extrapolate a universal experience from a personal one, but that goes both ways; I see a fair few people in the comments who got agents straight away, remarking (rather smugly) that they accomplished this by writing a good query and having strong knowledge of the market, in addition to "polishing" their book. I mean jesus cthulhu, why didn't the rest of us think of that? >.>
It's the same argument in any industry for achieving success. Yes, you can be an impoverished illiterate quadraplegic orphan from an ethnic minority who manages to become the next Richard Branson, but in practice your chances are vanishingly small, and would be higher with connections and/or a wealthy background.
I think there is a sort of seductiveness in believing our work capable of being so amazing that it rises above the rest, shining amidst the dross to elevate us into publication, but this to me seems borderline delusional in comparison to the other extreme. Certainly it is nothing but advantageous to have strong connections, and also, there is just *so much* material that being not-dross isn't enough. Timing, market, agent/publisher whim, miniscule aspects of presentation, style trends, and so many other factors are influential.
It doesn't surprise me that people turn to self publishing out of sheer exasperation, and it's always heartening to see them successfully carve out a niche that the traditional route couldn't or wouldn't provide for them. In many respects, I think self publishing might more accurately reflect a writer's hard work and quality writing, since poor books make nothing while canny writers pull in dosh.